We investigate whether general-domain large language models such as GPT-4 Turbo can perform risk stratification and predict post-operative outcome measures using a description of the procedure and a patient's clinical notes derived from the electronic health record. We examine predictive performance on 8 different tasks: prediction of ASA Physical Status Classification, hospital admission, ICU admission, unplanned admission, hospital mortality, PACU Phase 1 duration, hospital duration, and ICU duration. Few-shot and chain-of-thought prompting improves predictive performance for several of the tasks. We achieve F1 scores of 0.50 for ASA Physical Status Classification, 0.81 for ICU admission, and 0.86 for hospital mortality. Performance on duration prediction tasks were universally poor across all prompt strategies. Current generation large language models can assist clinicians in perioperative risk stratification on classification tasks and produce high-quality natural language summaries and explanations.

Hallucinations are a type of output error produced by deep neural networks. While this has been studied in natural language processing, they have not been researched previously in automatic speech recognition. Here, we define hallucinations in ASR as transcriptions generated by a model that are semantically unrelated to the source utterance, yet still fluent and coherent. The similarity of hallucinations to probable natural language outputs of the model creates a danger of deception and impacts the credibility of the system. We show that commonly used metrics, such as word error rates, cannot differentiate between hallucinatory and non-hallucinatory models. To address this, we propose a perturbation-based method for assessing the susceptibility of an automatic speech recognition (ASR) model to hallucination at test time, which does not require access to the training dataset. We demonstrate that this method helps to distinguish between hallucinatory and non-hallucinatory models that have similar baseline word error rates. We further explore the relationship between the types of ASR errors and the types of dataset noise to determine what types of noise are most likely to create hallucinatory outputs. We devise a framework for identifying hallucinations by analysing their semantic connection with the ground truth and their fluency. Finally, we discover how to induce hallucinations with a random noise injection to the utterance.

Backdoor attack is a common threat to deep neural networks. During testing, samples embedded with a backdoor trigger will be misclassified as an adversarial target by a backdoored model, while samples without the backdoor trigger will be correctly classified. In this paper, we present the first certified backdoor detector (CBD), which is based on a novel, adjustable conformal prediction scheme based on our proposed statistic local dominant probability. For any classifier under inspection, CBD provides 1) a detection inference, 2) the condition under which the attacks are guaranteed to be detectable for the same classification domain, and 3) a probabilistic upper bound for the false positive rate. Our theoretical results show that attacks with triggers that are more resilient to test-time noise and have smaller perturbation magnitudes are more likely to be detected with guarantees. Moreover, we conduct extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets considering various backdoor types, such as BadNet, CB, and Blend. CBD achieves comparable or even higher detection accuracy than state-of-the-art detectors, and it in addition provides detection certification. Notably, for backdoor attacks with random perturbation triggers bounded by $\ell_2\leq0.75$ which achieves more than 90\% attack success rate, CBD achieves 100\% (98\%), 100\% (84\%), 98\% (98\%), and 72\% (40\%) empirical (certified) detection true positive rates on the four benchmark datasets GTSRB, SVHN, CIFAR-10, and TinyImageNet, respectively, with low false positive rates.

Fraud detection aims to discover fraudsters deceiving other users by, for example, leaving fake reviews or making abnormal transactions. Graph-based fraud detection methods consider this task as a classification problem with two classes: frauds or normal. We address this problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) by proposing a dynamic relation-attentive aggregation mechanism. Based on the observation that many real-world graphs include different types of relations, we propose to learn a node representation per relation and aggregate the node representations using a learnable attention function that assigns a different attention coefficient to each relation. Furthermore, we combine the node representations from different layers to consider both the local and global structures of a target node, which is beneficial to improving the performance of fraud detection on graphs with heterophily. By employing dynamic graph attention in all the aggregation processes, our method adaptively computes the attention coefficients for each node. Experimental results show that our method, DRAG, outperforms state-of-the-art fraud detection methods on real-world benchmark datasets.

A cost-effective alternative to manual data labeling is weak supervision (WS), where data samples are automatically annotated using a predefined set of labeling functions (LFs), rule-based mechanisms that generate artificial labels for the associated classes. In this work, we investigate noise reduction techniques for WS based on the principle of k-fold cross-validation. We introduce a new algorithm ULF for Unsupervised Labeling Function correction, which denoises WS data by leveraging models trained on all but some LFs to identify and correct biases specific to the held-out LFs. Specifically, ULF refines the allocation of LFs to classes by re-estimating this assignment on highly reliable cross-validated samples. Evaluation on multiple datasets confirms ULF's effectiveness in enhancing WS learning without the need for manual labeling.

This document outlines some of the common mistakes that occur when using machine learning, and what can be done to avoid them. Whilst it should be accessible to anyone with a basic understanding of machine learning techniques, it was originally written for research students, and focuses on issues that are of particular concern within academic research, such as the need to do rigorous comparisons and reach valid conclusions. It covers five stages of the machine learning process: what to do before model building, how to reliably build models, how to robustly evaluate models, how to compare models fairly, and how to report results.

With growing concerns regarding bias and discrimination in predictive models, the AI community has increasingly focused on assessing AI system trustworthiness. Conventionally, trustworthy AI literature relies on the probabilistic framework and calibration as prerequisites for trustworthiness. In this work, we depart from this viewpoint by proposing a novel trust framework inspired by the philosophy literature on trust. We present a precise mathematical definition of trustworthiness, termed $\mathcal{U}$-trustworthiness, specifically tailored for a subset of tasks aimed at maximizing a utility function. We argue that a model's $\mathcal{U}$-trustworthiness is contingent upon its ability to maximize Bayes utility within this task subset. Our first set of results challenges the probabilistic framework by demonstrating its potential to favor less trustworthy models and introduce the risk of misleading trustworthiness assessments. Within the context of $\mathcal{U}$-trustworthiness, we prove that properly-ranked models are inherently $\mathcal{U}$-trustworthy. Furthermore, we advocate for the adoption of the AUC metric as the preferred measure of trustworthiness. By offering both theoretical guarantees and experimental validation, AUC enables robust evaluation of trustworthiness, thereby enhancing model selection and hyperparameter tuning to yield more trustworthy outcomes.

Large scale analytics engines have become a core dependency for modern data-driven enterprises to derive business insights and drive actions. These engines support a large number of analytic jobs processing huge volumes of data on a daily basis, and workloads are often inundated with overlapping computations across multiple jobs. Reusing common computation is crucial for efficient cluster resource utilization and reducing job execution time. Detecting common computation is the first and key step for reducing this computational redundancy. However, detecting equivalence on large-scale analytics engines requires efficient and scalable solutions that are fully automated. In addition, to maximize computation reuse, equivalence needs to be detected at the semantic level instead of just the syntactic level (i.e., the ability to detect semantic equivalence of seemingly different-looking queries). Unfortunately, existing solutions fall short of satisfying these requirements. In this paper, we take a major step towards filling this gap by proposing GEqO, a portable and lightweight machine-learning-based framework for efficiently identifying semantically equivalent computations at scale. GEqO introduces two machine-learning-based filters that quickly prune out nonequivalent subexpressions and employs a semi-supervised learning feedback loop to iteratively improve its model with an intelligent sampling mechanism. Further, with its novel database-agnostic featurization method, GEqO can transfer the learning from one workload and database to another. Our extensive empirical evaluation shows that, on TPC-DS-like queries, GEqO yields significant performance gains-up to 200x faster than automated verifiers-and finds up to 2x more equivalences than optimizer and signature-based equivalence detection approaches.

This work, in a pioneering approach, attempts to build a biometric system that works purely based on the fluid mechanics governing exhaled breath. We test the hypothesis that the structure of turbulence in exhaled human breath can be exploited to build biometric algorithms. This work relies on the idea that the extrathoracic airway is unique for every individual, making the exhaled breath a biomarker. Methods including classical multi-dimensional hypothesis testing approach and machine learning models are employed in building user authentication algorithms, namely user confirmation and user identification. A user confirmation algorithm tries to verify whether a user is the person they claim to be. A user identification algorithm tries to identify a user's identity with no prior information available. A dataset of exhaled breath time series samples from 94 human subjects was used to evaluate the performance of these algorithms. The user confirmation algorithms performed exceedingly well for the given dataset with over $97\%$ true confirmation rate. The machine learning based algorithm achieved a good true confirmation rate, reiterating our understanding of why machine learning based algorithms typically outperform classical hypothesis test based algorithms. The user identification algorithm performs reasonably well with the provided dataset with over $50\%$ of the users identified as being within two possible suspects. We show surprisingly unique turbulent signatures in the exhaled breath that have not been discovered before. In addition to discussions on a novel biometric system, we make arguments to utilise this idea as a tool to gain insights into the morphometric variation of extrathoracic airway across individuals. Such tools are expected to have future potential in the area of personalised medicines.

Causal inference is a crucial goal of science, enabling researchers to arrive at meaningful conclusions regarding the predictions of hypothetical interventions using observational data. Path models, Structural Equation Models (SEMs), and, more generally, Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), provide a means to unambiguously specify assumptions regarding the causal structure underlying a phenomenon. Unlike DAGs, which make very few assumptions about the functional and parametric form, SEM assumes linearity. This can result in functional misspecification which prevents researchers from undertaking reliable effect size estimation. In contrast, we propose Super Learner Equation Modeling, a path modeling technique integrating machine learning Super Learner ensembles. We empirically demonstrate its ability to provide consistent and unbiased estimates of causal effects, its competitive performance for linear models when compared with SEM, and highlight its superiority over SEM when dealing with non-linear relationships. We provide open-source code, and a tutorial notebook with example usage, accentuating the easy-to-use nature of the method.