Performance Analysis
Signal Quality Auditing for Time-series Data
Gao, Chufan, Gisolfi, Nicholas, Dubrawski, Artur
Signal quality assessment (SQA) is required for monitoring the reliability of data acquisition systems, especially in AI-driven Predictive Maintenance (PMx) application contexts. SQA is vital for addressing "silent failures" of data acquisition hardware and software, which when unnoticed, misinform the users of data, creating the risk for incorrect decisions with unintended or even catastrophic consequences. We have developed an open-source software implementation of signal quality indices (SQIs) for the analysis of time-series data. We codify a range of SQIs, demonstrate them using established benchmark data, and show that they can be effective for signal quality assessment. We also study alternative approaches to denoising time-series data in an attempt to improve the quality of the already degraded signal, and evaluate them empirically on relevant real-world data. To our knowledge, our software toolkit is the first to provide an open source implementation of a broad range of signal quality assessment and improvement techniques validated on publicly available benchmark data for ease of reproducibility. The generality of our framework can be easily extended to assessing reliability of arbitrary time-series measurements in complex systems, especially when morphological patterns of the waveform shapes and signal periodicity are of key interest in downstream analyses.
Distinguishing the Indistinguishable: Human Expertise in Algorithmic Prediction
Alur, Rohan, Raghavan, Manish, Shah, Devavrat
We introduce a novel framework for incorporating human expertise into algorithmic predictions. Our approach focuses on the use of human judgment to distinguish inputs which `look the same' to any feasible predictive algorithm. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human/AI collaboration in prediction tasks, as experts often have access to information -- particularly subjective information -- which is not encoded in the algorithm's training data. We use this insight to develop a set of principled algorithms for selectively incorporating human feedback only when it improves the performance of any feasible predictor. We find empirically that although algorithms often outperform their human counterparts on average, human judgment can significantly improve algorithmic predictions on specific instances (which can be identified ex-ante). In an X-ray classification task, we find that this subset constitutes nearly 30% of the patient population. Our approach provides a natural way of uncovering this heterogeneity and thus enabling effective human-AI collaboration.
Combining the Strengths of Dutch Survey and Register Data in a Data Challenge to Predict Fertility (PreFer)
Sivak, Elizaveta, Pankowska, Paulina, Mendrik, Adrienne, Emery, Tom, Garcia-Bernardo, Javier, Hocuk, Seyit, Karpinska, Kasia, Maineri, Angelica, Mulder, Joris, Nissim, Malvina, Stulp, Gert
The social sciences have produced an impressive body of research on determinants of fertility outcomes, or whether and when people have children. However, the strength of these determinants and underlying theories are rarely evaluated on their predictive ability on new data. This prevents us from systematically comparing studies, hindering the evaluation and accumulation of knowledge. In this paper, we present two datasets which can be used to study the predictability of fertility outcomes in the Netherlands. One dataset is based on the LISS panel, a longitudinal survey which includes thousands of variables on a wide range of topics, including individual preferences and values. The other is based on the Dutch register data which lacks attitudinal data but includes detailed information about the life courses of millions of Dutch residents. We provide information about the datasets and the samples, and describe the fertility outcome of interest. We also introduce the fertility prediction data challenge PreFer which is based on these datasets and will start in Spring 2024. We outline the ways in which measuring the predictability of fertility outcomes using these datasets and combining their strengths in the data challenge can advance our understanding of fertility behaviour and computational social science. We further provide details for participants on how to take part in the data challenge.
Modeling Freight Mode Choice Using Machine Learning Classifiers: A Comparative Study Using the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) Data
Uddin, Majbah, Anowar, Sabreena, Eluru, Naveen
This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.
Random Forest-Based Prediction of Stroke Outcome
Fernandez-Lozano, Carlos, Hervella, Pablo, Mato-Abad, Virginia, Rodriguez-Yanez, Manuel, Suarez-Garaboa, Sonia, Lopez-Dequidt, Iria, Estany-Gestal, Ana, Sobrino, Tomas, Campos, Francisco, Castillo, Jose, Rodriguez-Yanez, Santiago, Iglesias-Rey, Ramon
We research into the clinical, biochemical and neuroimaging factors associated with the outcome of stroke patients to generate a predictive model using machine learning techniques for prediction of mortality and morbidity 3 months after admission. The dataset consisted of patients with ischemic stroke (IS) and non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) admitted to Stroke Unit of a European Tertiary Hospital prospectively registered. We identified the main variables for machine learning Random Forest (RF), generating a predictive model that can estimate patient mortality/morbidity. In conclusion, machine learning algorithms RF can be effectively used in stroke patients for long-term outcome prediction of mortality and morbidity.
A cost-sensitive constrained Lasso
Blanquero, Rafael, Carrizosa, Emilio, Ramírez-Cobo, Pepa, Sillero-Denamiel, M. Remedios
The Lasso has become a benchmark data analysis procedure, and numerous variants have been proposed in the literature. Although the Lasso formulations are stated so that overall prediction error is optimized, no full control over the accuracy prediction on certain individuals of interest is allowed. In this work we propose a novel version of the Lasso in which quadratic performance constraints are added to Lasso-based objective functions, in such a way that threshold values are set to bound the prediction errors in the different groups of interest (not necessarily disjoint). As a result, a constrained sparse regression model is defined by a nonlinear optimization problem. This cost-sensitive constrained Lasso has a direct application in heterogeneous samples where data are collected from distinct sources, as it is standard in many biomedical contexts. Both theoretical properties and empirical studies concerning the new method are explored in this paper. In addition, two illustrations of the method on biomedical and sociological contexts are considered.
Decentralised, Collaborative, and Privacy-preserving Machine Learning for Multi-Hospital Data
Fang, Congyu, Dziedzic, Adam, Zhang, Lin, Oliva, Laura, Verma, Amol, Razak, Fahad, Papernot, Nicolas, Wang, Bo
Machine Learning (ML) has demonstrated its great potential on medical data analysis. Large datasets collected from diverse sources and settings are essential for ML models in healthcare to achieve better accuracy and generalizability. Sharing data across different healthcare institutions is challenging because of complex and varying privacy and regulatory requirements. Hence, it is hard but crucial to allow multiple parties to collaboratively train an ML model leveraging the private datasets available at each party without the need for direct sharing of those datasets or compromising the privacy of the datasets through collaboration. In this paper, we address this challenge by proposing Decentralized, Collaborative, and Privacy-preserving ML for Multi-Hospital Data (DeCaPH). It offers the following key benefits: (1) it allows different parties to collaboratively train an ML model without transferring their private datasets; (2) it safeguards patient privacy by limiting the potential privacy leakage arising from any contents shared across the parties during the training process; and (3) it facilitates the ML model training without relying on a centralized server. We demonstrate the generalizability and power of DeCaPH on three distinct tasks using real-world distributed medical datasets: patient mortality prediction using electronic health records, cell-type classification using single-cell human genomes, and pathology identification using chest radiology images. We demonstrate that the ML models trained with DeCaPH framework have an improved utility-privacy trade-off, showing it enables the models to have good performance while preserving the privacy of the training data points. In addition, the ML models trained with DeCaPH framework in general outperform those trained solely with the private datasets from individual parties, showing that DeCaPH enhances the model generalizability.
An Experiment on Feature Selection using Logistic Regression
Islam, Raisa, Mazumdar, Subhasish, Islam, Rakibul
In supervised machine learning, feature selection plays a very important role by potentially enhancing explainability and performance as measured by computing time and accuracy-related metrics. In this paper, we investigate a method for feature selection based on the well-known L1 and L2 regularization strategies associated with logistic regression (LR). It is well known that the learned coefficients, which serve as weights, can be used to rank the features. Our approach is to synthesize the findings of L1 and L2 regularization. For our experiment, we chose the CIC-IDS2018 dataset owing partly to its size and also to the existence of two problematic classes that are hard to separate. We report first with the exclusion of one of them and then with its inclusion. We ranked features first with L1 and then with L2, and then compared logistic regression with L1 (LR+L1) against that with L2 (LR+L2) by varying the sizes of the feature sets for each of the two rankings. We found no significant difference in accuracy between the two methods once the feature set is selected. We chose a synthesis, i.e., only those features that were present in both the sets obtained from L1 and that from L2, and experimented with it on more complex models like Decision Tree and Random Forest and observed that the accuracy was very close in spite of the small size of the feature set. Additionally, we also report on the standard metrics: accuracy, precision, recall, and f1-score.
Determination of Trace Organic Contaminant Concentration via Machine Classification of Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectra
Jayaprakash, Vishnu, You, Jae Bem, Kanike, Chiranjeevi, Liu, Jinfeng, McCallum, Christopher, Zhang, Xuehua
Accurate detection and analysis of traces of persistent organic pollutants in water is important in many areas, including environmental monitoring and food quality control, due to their long environmental stability and potential bioaccumulation. While conventional analysis of organic pollutants requires expensive equipment, surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) has demonstrated great potential for accurate detection of these contaminants. However, SERS analytical difficulties, such as spectral preprocessing, denoising, and substrate-based spectral variation, have hindered widespread use of the technique. Here, we demonstrate an approach for predicting the concentration of sample pollutants from messy, unprocessed Raman data using machine learning. Frequency domain transform methods, including the Fourier and Walsh Hadamard transforms, are applied to sets of Raman spectra of three model micropollutants in water (rhodamine 6G, chlorpyrifos, and triclosan), which are then used to train machine learning algorithms. Using standard machine learning models, the concentration of sample pollutants are predicted with more than 80 percent cross-validation accuracy from raw Raman data. cross-validation accuracy of 85 percent was achieved using deep learning for a moderately sized dataset (100 spectra), and 70 to 80 percent cross-validation accuracy was achieved even for very small datasets (50 spectra). Additionally, standard models were shown to accurately identify characteristic peaks via analysis of their importance scores. The approach shown here has the potential to be applied to facilitate accurate detection and analysis of persistent organic pollutants by surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy.