Unlike in a clinical trial, where researchers get to determine the least number of positive and negative samples required, or in a machine learning study where the size and the class distribution of the validation set is static and known, in a real-world scenario, there is little control over the size and distribution of incoming patients. As a result, when measured during different time periods, evaluation metrics like Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUCROC) and Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve(AUCPR) may not be directly comparable. Therefore, in this study, for binary classifiers running in a long time period, we proposed to adjust these performance metrics for sample size and class distribution, so that a fair comparison can be made between two time periods. Note that the number of samples and the class distribution, namely the ratio of positive samples, are two robustness factors which affect the variance of AUCROC. To better estimate the mean of performance metrics and understand the change of performance over time, we propose a Kalman filter based framework with extrapolated variance adjusted for the total number of samples and the number of positive samples during different time periods. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated first on a synthetic dataset and then retrospectively applied to a 2-days ahead in-hospital mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients during 2021 and 2022. Further, we conclude that our prediction model is not significantly affected by the evolution of the disease, improved treatments and changes in hospital operational plans.

The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in forecasting crash risk is shown in this paper. To begin, some traffic and weather data are acquired as raw data. This data is then analyzed, and relevant characteristics are chosen to utilize as input data based on additional tree and Pearson correlation. Furthermore, crash and non-crash time data are separated; then, feature values for crash and non-crash events are written in three four-minute intervals prior to the crash and non-crash events using the average of all available values for that period. The number of non-crash samples was lowered after calculating crash likelihood for each period based on accident labeling. The proposed CNN model is capable of learning from recorded, processed, and categorized input characteristics such as traffic characteristics and meteorological conditions. The goal of this work is to forecast the chance of a real-time crash based on three periods before events. The area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), as well as sensitivity as the true positive rate and specificity as the false positive rate, are shown and compared with three typical machine learning and neural network models. Finally, when it comes to the error value, AUC, sensitivity, and specificity parameters as performance variables, the executed model outperforms other models. The findings of this research suggest applying the CNN model as a multi-class prediction model for real-time crash risk prediction. Our emphasis is on multi-class prediction, while prior research used this for binary (two-class) categorization like crash and non-crash.

High-quality and consistent annotations are fundamental to the successful development of robust machine learning models. Traditional data annotation methods are resource-intensive and inefficient, often leading to a reliance on third-party annotators who are not the domain experts. Hard samples, which are usually the most informative for model training, tend to be difficult to label accurately and consistently without business context. These can arise unpredictably during the annotation process, requiring a variable number of iterations and rounds of feedback, leading to unforeseen expenses and time commitments to guarantee quality. We posit that more direct involvement of domain experts, using a human-in-the-loop system, can resolve many of these practical challenges. We propose a novel framework we call Video Annotator (VA) for annotating, managing, and iterating on video classification datasets. Our approach offers a new paradigm for an end-user-centered model development process, enhancing the efficiency, usability, and effectiveness of video classifiers. Uniquely, VA allows for a continuous annotation process, seamlessly integrating data collection and model training. We leverage the zero-shot capabilities of vision-language foundation models combined with active learning techniques, and demonstrate that VA enables the efficient creation of high-quality models. VA achieves a median 6.8 point improvement in Average Precision relative to the most competitive baseline across a wide-ranging assortment of tasks. We release a dataset with 153k labels across 56 video understanding tasks annotated by three professional video editors using VA, and also release code to replicate our experiments at: http://github.com/netflix/videoannotator.

In recent years Deep Neural Network-based systems are not only increasing in popularity but also receive growing user trust. However, due to the closed-world assumption of such systems, they cannot recognize samples from unknown classes and often induce an incorrect label with high confidence. Presented work looks at the evaluation of methods for Open Set Recognition, focusing on the impact of class imbalance, especially in the dichotomy between known and unknown samples. As an outcome of problem analysis, we present a set of guidelines for evaluation of methods in this field.

Electronic health records (EHR) is an inherently multimodal register of the patient's health status characterized by static data and multivariate time series (MTS). While MTS are a valuable tool for clinical prediction, their fusion with other data modalities can possibly result in more thorough insights and more accurate results. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as fundamental tools for identifying and defining underlying patterns in the healthcare domain. However, fundamental improvements in interpretability are needed for DNN models to be widely used in the clinical setting. In this study, we present an approach built on a collection of interpretable multimodal data-driven models that may anticipate and understand the emergence of antimicrobial multidrug resistance (AMR) germs in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the University Hospital of Fuenlabrada (Madrid, Spain). The profile and initial health status of the patient are modeled using static variables, while the evolution of the patient's health status during the ICU stay is modeled using several MTS, including mechanical ventilation and antibiotics intake. The multimodal DNNs models proposed in this paper include interpretable principles in addition to being effective at predicting AMR and providing an explainable prediction support system for AMR in the ICU. Furthermore, our proposed methodology based on multimodal models and interpretability schemes can be leveraged in additional clinical problems dealing with EHR data, broadening the impact and applicability of our results.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) pose a growing threat to privacy preservation in federated learning. The semi-honest attacker, e.g., the server, may determine whether a particular sample belongs to a target client according to the observed model information. This paper conducts an evaluation of existing MIAs and corresponding defense strategies. Our evaluation on MIAs reveals two important findings about the trend of MIAs. Firstly, combining model information from multiple communication rounds (Multi-temporal) enhances the overall effectiveness of MIAs compared to utilizing model information from a single epoch. Secondly, incorporating models from non-target clients (Multi-spatial) significantly improves the effectiveness of MIAs, particularly when the clients' data is homogeneous. This highlights the importance of considering the temporal and spatial model information in MIAs. Next, we assess the effectiveness via privacy-utility tradeoff for two type defense mechanisms against MIAs: Gradient Perturbation and Data Replacement. Our results demonstrate that Data Replacement mechanisms achieve a more optimal balance between preserving privacy and maintaining model utility. Therefore, we recommend the adoption of Data Replacement methods as a defense strategy against MIAs. Our code is available in https://github.com/Liar-Mask/FedMIA.

Everyday we increasingly rely on machine learning models to automate and support high-stake tasks and decisions. This growing presence means that humans are now constantly interacting with machine learning-based systems, training and using models everyday. Several different techniques in computer science literature account for the human interaction with machine learning systems, but their classification is sparse and the goals varied. This survey proposes a taxonomy of Hybrid Decision Making Systems, providing both a conceptual and technical framework for understanding how current computer science literature models interaction between humans and machines.

Clinical trials are typically run in order to understand the effects of a new treatment on a given population of patients. However, patients in large populations rarely respond the same way to the same treatment. This heterogeneity in patient responses necessitates trials that investigate effects on multiple subpopulations - especially when a treatment has marginal or no benefit for the overall population but might have significant benefit for a particular subpopulation. Motivated by this need, we propose Syntax, an exploratory trial design that identifies subpopulations with positive treatment effect among many subpopulations. Syntax is sample efficient as it (i) recruits and allocates patients adaptively and (ii) estimates treatment effects by forming synthetic controls for each subpopulation that combines control samples from other subpopulations. We validate the performance of Syntax and provide insights into when it might have an advantage over conventional trial designs through experiments.

How many different binary classification problems a single learning algorithm can solve on a fixed data with exactly zero or at most a given number of cross-validation errors? While the number in the former case is known to be limited by the no-free-lunch theorem, we show that the exact answers are given by the theory of error detecting codes. As a case study, we focus on the AUC performance measure and leave-pair-out cross-validation (LPOCV), in which every possible pair of data with different class labels is held out at a time. We show that the maximal number of classification problems with fixed class proportion, for which a learning algorithm can achieve zero LPOCV error, equals the maximal number of code words in a constant weight code (CWC), with certain technical properties. We then generalize CWCs by introducing light CWCs, and prove an analogous result for nonzero LPOCV errors and light CWCs. Moreover, we prove both upper and lower bounds on the maximal numbers of code words in light CWCs. Finally, as an immediate practical application, we develop new LPOCV based randomization tests for learning algorithms that generalize the classical Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney U test.

The cellular network plays a pivotal role in providing Internet access, since it is the only global-scale infrastructure with ubiquitous mobility support. To manage and maintain large-scale networks, mobile network operators require timely information, or even accurate performance forecasts. In this paper, we propose LightningNet, a lightweight and distributed graph-based framework for forecasting cellular network performance, which can capture spatio-temporal dependencies that arise in the network traffic. LightningNet achieves a steady performance increase over state-of-the-art forecasting techniques, while maintaining a similar resource usage profile. Our architecture ideology also excels in the respect that it is specifically designed to support IoT and edge devices, giving us an even greater step ahead of the current state-of-the-art, as indicated by our performance experiments with NVIDIA Jetson.