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A comparative study of conformal prediction methods for valid uncertainty quantification in machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such improvements were measured were accurately capturing the intended goal, whether the numerical differences in the resulting values were significant, or whether uncertainty played a role in this study and if it should have been taken into account, was of secondary importance. Whereas probability theory, be it frequentist or Bayesian, used to be the gold standard in science before the advent of the supercomputer, it was quickly replaced in favor of black box models and sheer computing power because of their ability to handle large data sets. This evolution sadly happened at the expense of interpretability and trustworthiness. However, while people are still trying to improve the predictive power of their models, the community is starting to realize that for many applications it is not so much the exact prediction that is of importance, but rather the variability or uncertainty. The work in this dissertation tries to further the quest for a world where everyone is aware of uncertainty, of how important it is and how to embrace it instead of fearing it. A specific, though general, framework that allows anyone to obtain accurate uncertainty estimates is singled out and analysed. Certain aspects and applications of the framework -- dubbed `conformal prediction' -- are studied in detail. Whereas many approaches to uncertainty quantification make strong assumptions about the data, conformal prediction is, at the time of writing, the only framework that deserves the title `distribution-free'. No parametric assumptions have to be made and the nonparametric results also hold without having to resort to the law of large numbers in the asymptotic regime.


TextAge: A Curated and Diverse Text Dataset for Age Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Age-related language patterns play a crucial role in understanding linguistic differences and developing age-appropriate communication strategies. However, the lack of comprehensive and diverse datasets has hindered the progress of research in this area. To address this issue, we present TextAge, a curated text dataset that maps sentences to the age and age group of the producer, as well as an underage (under 13) label. TextAge covers a wide range of ages and includes both spoken and written data from various sources such as CHILDES, Meta, Poki Poems-by-kids, JUSThink, and the TV show "Survivor." The dataset undergoes extensive cleaning and preprocessing to ensure data quality and consistency. We demonstrate the utility of TextAge through two applications: Underage Detection and Generational Classification. For Underage Detection, we train a Naive Bayes classifier, fine-tuned RoBERTa, and XLNet models to differentiate between language patterns of minors and young-adults and over. For Generational Classification, the models classify language patterns into different age groups (kids, teens, twenties, etc.). The models excel at classifying the "kids" group but struggle with older age groups, particularly "fifties," "sixties," and "seventies," likely due to limited data samples and less pronounced linguistic differences. TextAge offers a valuable resource for studying age-related language patterns and developing age-sensitive language models. The dataset's diverse composition and the promising results of the classification tasks highlight its potential for various applications, such as content moderation, targeted advertising, and age-appropriate communication. Future work aims to expand the dataset further and explore advanced modeling techniques to improve performance on older age groups.


Exploring Speech Pattern Disorders in Autism using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diagnosing autism spectrum disorder (ASD) by identifying abnormal speech patterns from examiner-patient dialogues presents significant challenges due to the subtle and diverse manifestations of speech-related symptoms in affected individuals. This study presents a comprehensive approach to identify distinctive speech patterns through the analysis of examiner-patient dialogues. Utilizing a dataset of recorded dialogues, we extracted 40 speech-related features, categorized into frequency, zero-crossing rate, energy, spectral characteristics, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs), and balance. These features encompass various aspects of speech such as intonation, volume, rhythm, and speech rate, reflecting the complex nature of communicative behaviors in ASD. We employed machine learning for both classification and regression tasks to analyze these speech features. The classification model aimed to differentiate between ASD and non-ASD cases, achieving an accuracy of 87.75%. Regression models were developed to predict speech pattern related variables and a composite score from all variables, facilitating a deeper understanding of the speech dynamics associated with ASD. The effectiveness of machine learning in interpreting intricate speech patterns and the high classification accuracy underscore the potential of computational methods in supporting the diagnostic processes for ASD. This approach not only aids in early detection but also contributes to personalized treatment planning by providing insights into the speech and communication profiles of individuals with ASD.


Enhancing User Experience in On-Device Machine Learning with Gated Compression Layers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

On-device machine learning (ODML) enables powerful edge applications, but power consumption remains a key challenge for resource-constrained devices. To address this, developers often face a trade-off between model accuracy and power consumption, employing either computationally intensive models on high-power cores or pared-down models on low-power cores. Both approaches typically lead to a compromise in user experience (UX). This work focuses on the use of Gated Compression (GC) layer to enhance ODML model performance while conserving power and maximizing cost-efficiency, especially for always-on use cases. GC layers dynamically regulate data flow by selectively gating activations of neurons within the neural network and effectively filtering out non-essential inputs, which reduces power needs without compromising accuracy, and enables more efficient execution on heterogeneous compute cores. These improvements enhance UX through prolonged battery life, improved device responsiveness, and greater user comfort. In this work, we have integrated GC layers into vision and speech domain models including the transformer-based ViT model. Our experiments demonstrate theoretical power efficiency gains ranging from 158x to 30,000x for always-on scenarios. This substantial improvement empowers ODML applications with enhanced UX benefits.


Advancing human-centric AI for robust X-ray analysis through holistic self-supervised learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI Foundation models are gaining traction in various applications, including medical fields like radiology. However, medical foundation models are often tested on limited tasks, leaving their generalisability and biases unexplored. We present RayDINO, a large visual encoder trained by self-supervision on 873k chest X-rays. We compare RayDINO to previous state-of-the-art models across nine radiology tasks, from classification and dense segmentation to text generation, and provide an in depth analysis of population, age and sex biases of our model. Our findings suggest that self-supervision allows patient-centric AI proving useful in clinical workflows and interpreting X-rays holistically. With RayDINO and small task-specific adapters, we reach state-of-the-art results and improve generalization to unseen populations while mitigating bias, illustrating the true promise of foundation models: versatility and robustness.


Improving Membership Inference in ASR Model Auditing with Perturbed Loss Features

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Membership Inference (MI) poses a substantial privacy threat to the training data of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems, while also offering an opportunity to audit these models with regard to user data. This paper explores the effectiveness of loss-based features in combination with Gaussian and adversarial perturbations to perform MI in ASR models. To the best of our knowledge, this approach has not yet been investigated. We compare our proposed features with commonly used error-based features and find that the proposed features greatly enhance performance for sample-level MI. For speaker-level MI, these features improve results, though by a smaller margin, as error-based features already obtained a high performance for this task. Our findings emphasise the importance of considering different feature sets and levels of access to target models for effective MI in ASR systems, providing valuable insights for auditing such models.


Error-Driven Uncertainty Aware Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural networks are often overconfident about their predictions, which undermines their reliability and trustworthiness. In this work, we present a novel technique, named Error-Driven Uncertainty Aware Training (EUAT), which aims to enhance the ability of neural models to estimate their uncertainty correctly, namely to be highly uncertain when they output inaccurate predictions and low uncertain when their output is accurate. The EUAT approach operates during the model's training phase by selectively employing two loss functions depending on whether the training examples are correctly or incorrectly predicted by the model. This allows for pursuing the twofold goal of i) minimizing model uncertainty for correctly predicted inputs and ii) maximizing uncertainty for mispredicted inputs, while preserving the model's misprediction rate. We evaluate EUAT using diverse neural models and datasets in the image recognition domains considering both non-adversarial and adversarial settings. The results show that EUAT outperforms existing approaches for uncertainty estimation (including other uncertainty-aware training techniques, calibration, ensembles, and DEUP) by providing uncertainty estimates that not only have higher quality when evaluated via statistical metrics (e.g., correlation with residuals) but also when employed to build binary classifiers that decide whether the model's output can be trusted or not and under distributional data shifts.


Zero-shot Safety Prediction for Autonomous Robots with Foundation World Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A world model creates a surrogate world to train a controller and predict safety violations by learning the internal dynamic model of systems. However, the existing world models rely solely on statistical learning of how observations change in response to actions, lacking precise quantification of how accurate the surrogate dynamics are, which poses a significant challenge in safety-critical systems. To address this challenge, we propose foundation world models that embed observations into meaningful and causally latent representations. This enables the surrogate dynamics to directly predict causal future states by leveraging a training-free large language model. In two common benchmarks, this novel model outperforms standard world models in the safety prediction task and has a performance comparable to supervised learning despite not using any data. We evaluate its performance with a more specialized and system-relevant metric by comparing estimated states instead of aggregating observation-wide error.


Quantum Machine Learning: Quantum Kernel Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum algorithms based on quantum kernel methods have been investigated previously [1]. A quantum advantage is derived from the fact that it is possible to construct a family of datasets for which, only quantum processing can recognise the intrinsic labelling patterns, while for classical computers the dataset looks like noise. This is due to the algorithm leveraging inherent efficiencies in the computation of logarithms in a cyclic group. The discrete log problem.is a well-known advantage of quantum vs classical computation: where it is possible to generate all the members of the group using a single mathematical operation. Kernel methods are a powerful and popular technique in classical Machine Learning. The use of a quantum feature space that can only be calculated efficiently on a quantum computer potentially allows for deriving a quantum advantage. In this paper, we intend to first describe the application of such a kernel method to a Quantum version of the classical Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm to identify conditions under which, a quantum advantage is realised. A data dependent projected quantum kernel was shown to provide significant advantage over classical kernels. Further, we present results of investigations and ideas pertaining to extending the use of quantum kernels as a feature extraction layer in a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) that is a widely used architecture in deep-learning applications.


Unifying and extending Precision Recall metrics for assessing generative models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With the recent success of generative models in image and text, the evaluation of generative models has gained a lot of attention. Whereas most generative models are compared in terms of scalar values such as Frechet Inception Distance (FID) or Inception Score (IS), in the last years (Sajjadi et al., 2018) proposed a definition of precision-recall curve to characterize the closeness of two distributions. Since then, various approaches to precision and recall have seen the light (Kynkaanniemi et al., 2019; Naeem et al., 2020; Park & Kim, 2023). They center their attention on the extreme values of precision and recall, but apart from this fact, their ties are elusive. In this paper, we unify most of these approaches under the same umbrella, relying on the work of (Simon et al., 2019). Doing so, we were able not only to recover entire curves, but also to expose the sources of the accounted pitfalls of the concerned metrics. We also provide consistency results that go well beyond the ones presented in the corresponding literature. Last, we study the different behaviors of the curves obtained experimentally.