Adaptive Risk Control (ARC) is an online calibration strategy based on set prediction that offers worst-case deterministic long-term risk control, as well as statistical marginal coverage guarantees. ARC adjusts the size of the prediction set by varying a single scalar threshold based on feedback from past decisions. In this work, we introduce Localized Adaptive Risk Control (L-ARC), an online calibration scheme that targets statistical localized risk guarantees ranging from conditional risk to marginal risk, while preserving the worst-case performance of ARC. L-ARC updates a threshold function within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), with the kernel determining the level of localization of the statistical risk guarantee. The theoretical results highlight a trade-off between localization of the statistical risk and convergence speed to the long-term risk target. Thanks to localization, L-ARC is demonstrated via experiments to produce prediction sets with risk guarantees across different data subpopulations, significantly improving the fairness of the calibrated model for tasks such as image segmentation and beam selection in wireless networks.

Generative Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely utilized for their excellence in various tasks. However, their tendency to produce inaccurate or misleading outputs poses a potential risk, particularly in high-stakes environments. Therefore, estimating the correctness of generative LLM outputs is an important task for enhanced reliability. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) in generative LLMs is an evolving domain, where SOTA probability-based methods commonly employ length-normalized scoring. In this work, we propose Meaning-Aware Response Scoring (MARS) as an alternative to length-normalized scoring for UE methods. MARS is a novel scoring function that considers the semantic contribution of each token in the generated sequence in the context of the question. We demonstrate that integrating MARS into UE methods results in a universal and significant improvement in UE performance. We conduct experiments using three distinct closed-book question-answering datasets across five popular pre-trained LLMs. Lastly, we validate the efficacy of MARS on a Medical QA dataset. Code can be found https://github.com/Ybakman/LLM_Uncertainity.

The pursuit of understanding fundamental particle interactions has reached unparalleled precision levels. Particle physics detectors play a crucial role in generating low-level object signatures that encode collision physics. However, simulating these particle collisions is a demanding task in terms of memory and computation which will be exasperated with larger data volumes, more complex detectors, and a higher pileup environment in the High-Luminosity LHC. The introduction of "Fast Simulation" has been pivotal in overcoming computational bottlenecks. The use of deep-generative models has sparked a surge of interest in surrogate modeling for detector simulations, generating particle showers that closely resemble the observed data. Nonetheless, there is a pressing need for a comprehensive evaluation of their performance using a standardized set of metrics. In this study, we conducted a rigorous evaluation of three generative models using standard datasets and a diverse set of metrics derived from physics, computer vision, and statistics. Furthermore, we explored the impact of using full versus mixed precision modes during inference. Our evaluation revealed that the CaloDiffusion and CaloScore generative models demonstrate the most accurate simulation of particle showers, yet there remains substantial room for improvement. Our findings identified areas where the evaluated models fell short in accurately replicating Geant4 data.

Maternity care is a complex system involving treatments and interactions between patients, providers, and the care environment. To improve patient safety and outcomes, understanding the human factors (e.g. individuals decisions, local facilities) influencing healthcare delivery is crucial. However, most current tools for analysing healthcare data focus only on biomedical concepts (e.g. health conditions, procedures and tests), overlooking the importance of human factors. We developed a new approach called I-SIRch, using artificial intelligence to automatically identify and label human factors concepts in maternity healthcare investigation reports describing adverse maternity incidents produced by England's Healthcare Safety Investigation Branch (HSIB). These incident investigation reports aim to identify opportunities for learning and improving maternal safety across the entire healthcare system. I-SIRch was trained using real data and tested on both real and simulated data to evaluate its performance in identifying human factors concepts. When applied to real reports, the model achieved a high level of accuracy, correctly identifying relevant concepts in 90\% of the sentences from 97 reports. Applying I-SIRch to analyse these reports revealed that certain human factors disproportionately affected mothers from different ethnic groups. Our work demonstrates the potential of using automated tools to identify human factors concepts in maternity incident investigation reports, rather than focusing solely on biomedical concepts. This approach opens up new possibilities for understanding the complex interplay between social, technical, and organisational factors influencing maternal safety and population health outcomes. By taking a more comprehensive view of maternal healthcare delivery, we can develop targeted interventions to address disparities and improve maternal outcomes.

Advanced persistent threats (APTs) pose significant challenges for organizations, leading to data breaches, financial losses, and reputational damage. Existing provenance-based approaches for APT detection often struggle with high false positive rates, a lack of interpretability, and an inability to adapt to evolving system behavior. We introduce RAPID, a novel deep learning-based method for robust APT detection and investigation, leveraging context-aware anomaly detection and alert tracing. By utilizing self-supervised sequence learning and iteratively learned embeddings, our approach effectively adapts to dynamic system behavior. The use of provenance tracing both enriches the alerts and enhances the detection capabilities of our approach. Our extensive evaluation demonstrates RAPID's effectiveness and computational efficiency in real-world scenarios. In addition, RAPID achieves higher precision and recall than state-of-the-art methods, significantly reducing false positives. RAPID integrates contextual information and facilitates a smooth transition from detection to investigation, providing security teams with detailed insights to efficiently address APT threats.

This paper introduces an innovative intrusion detection system that harnesses Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Networks (MSCNNs), and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks, supplemented by Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) for interpretability. Employing a GAN, the system generates realistic network traffic data, encompassing both normal and attack patterns. This synthesized data is then fed into an MSCNN-BiLSTM architecture for intrusion detection. The MSCNN layer extracts features from the network traffic data at different scales, while the BiLSTM layer captures temporal dependencies within the traffic sequences. Integration of LIME allows for explaining the model's decisions. Evaluation on the Hogzilla dataset, a standard benchmark, showcases an impressive accuracy of 99.16\% for multi-class classification and 99.10\% for binary classification, while ensuring interpretability through LIME. This fusion of deep learning and interpretability presents a promising avenue for enhancing intrusion detection systems by improving transparency and decision support in network security.

Machine learning (ML) has revolutionized the digital transformation of technology valuation by predicting the value of patents with high accuracy. However, the lack of validation regarding the reliability of these models hinders experts from fully trusting the confidence of model predictions. To address this issue, we propose an analytical framework for reliable technology valuation using calibrated ML models, which provide robust confidence levels in model predictions. We extract quantitative patent indicators that represent various technology characteristics as input data, using the patent maintenance period as a proxy for technology values. Multiple ML models are developed to capture the nonlinear relationship between patent indicators and technology value. The reliability and accuracy of these models are evaluated, presenting a Pareto-front map where the expected calibration error, Matthews correlation coefficient and F1-scores are compared. After identifying the best-performing model, we apply SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis to pinpoint the most significant input features by confidence bin. Through a case study, we confirmed that the proposed approach offers a practical guideline for developing reliable and accurate ML-based technology valuation models, with significant implications for both academia and industry.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) is an efficient strategy for adapting latent diffusion models (LDMs) on a private dataset to generate specific images by minimizing the adaptation loss. However, the LoRA-adapted LDMs are vulnerable to membership inference (MI) attacks that can judge whether a particular data point belongs to the private dataset, thus leading to the privacy leakage. To defend against MI attacks, we first propose a straightforward solution: Membership-Privacy-preserving LoRA (MP-LoRA). MP-LoRA is formulated as a min-max optimization problem where a proxy attack model is trained by maximizing its MI gain while the LDM is adapted by minimizing the sum of the adaptation loss and the MI gain of the proxy attack model. However, we empirically find that MP-LoRA has the issue of unstable optimization, and theoretically analyze that the potential reason is the unconstrained local smoothness, which impedes the privacy-preserving adaptation. To mitigate this issue, we further propose a Stable Membership-Privacy-preserving LoRA (SMP-LoRA) that adapts the LDM by minimizing the ratio of the adaptation loss to the MI gain. Besides, we theoretically prove that the local smoothness of SMP-LoRA can be constrained by the gradient norm, leading to improved convergence. Our experimental results corroborate that SMP-LoRA can indeed defend against MI attacks and generate high-quality images. Our code is available at https://github.com/WilliamLUO0/StablePrivateLoRA.

Following natural language instructions by executing actions in digital environments (e.g. web-browsers and REST APIs) is a challenging task for language model (LM) agents. Unfortunately, LM agents often fail to generalize to new environments without human demonstrations. This work presents BAGEL, a method for bootstrapping LM agents without human supervision. BAGEL converts a seed set of randomly explored trajectories or synthetic instructions, into demonstrations, via round-trips between two noisy LM components: an LM labeler which converts a trajectory into a synthetic instruction, and a zero-shot LM agent which maps the synthetic instruction into a refined trajectory. By performing these round-trips iteratively, BAGEL quickly converts the initial distribution of trajectories towards those that are well-described by natural language. We use BAGEL demonstrations to adapt a zero shot LM agent at test time via in-context learning over retrieved demonstrations, and find improvements of over 2-13% absolute on ToolQA and MiniWob++, with up to 13x reduction in execution failures.

Accurate and interpretable user satisfaction estimation (USE) is critical for understanding, evaluating, and continuously improving conversational systems. Users express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with diverse conversational patterns in both general-purpose (ChatGPT and Bing Copilot) and task-oriented (customer service chatbot) conversational systems. Existing approaches based on featurized ML models or text embeddings fall short in extracting generalizable patterns and are hard to interpret. In this work, we show that LLMs can extract interpretable signals of user satisfaction from their natural language utterances more effectively than embedding-based approaches. Moreover, an LLM can be tailored for USE via an iterative prompting framework using supervision from labeled examples. The resulting method, Supervised Prompting for User satisfaction Rubrics (SPUR), not only has higher accuracy but is more interpretable as it scores user satisfaction via learned rubrics with a detailed breakdown.