Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches struggle to handle multi-step ahead prediction tasks, where uncertainty estimates across multiple future time points are crucial. We propose JANET (Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series), a novel framework for constructing conformal prediction regions that are valid for both univariate and multivariate time series. JANET generalises the inductive conformal framework and efficiently produces joint prediction regions with controlled K-familywise error rates, enabling flexible adaptation to specific application needs. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates JANET's superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse time series datasets, highlighting its potential for reliable and interpretable uncertainty quantification in sequential data.

This paper presents dilated Residual Network (ResNet) models for disease classification from retinal fundus images. Dilated convolution filters are used to replace normal convolution filters in the higher layers of the ResNet model (dilated ResNet) in order to improve the receptive field compared to the normal ResNet model for disease classification. This study introduces computer-assisted diagnostic tools that employ deep learning, enhanced with explainable AI techniques. These techniques aim to make the tool's decision-making process transparent, thereby enabling medical professionals to understand and trust the AI's diagnostic decision. They are particularly relevant in today's healthcare landscape, where there is a growing demand for transparency in AI applications to ensure their reliability and ethical use. The dilated ResNet is used as a replacement for the normal ResNet to enhance the classification accuracy of retinal eye diseases and reduce the required computing time. The dataset used in this work is the Ocular Disease Intelligent Recognition (ODIR) dataset which is a structured ophthalmic database with eight classes covering most of the common retinal eye diseases. The evaluation metrics used in this work include precision, recall, accuracy, and F1 score. In this work, a comparative study has been made between normal ResNet models and dilated ResNet models on five variants namely ResNet-18, ResNet-34, ResNet-50, ResNet-101, and ResNet-152. The dilated ResNet model shows promising results as compared to normal ResNet with an average F1 score of 0.71, 0.70, 0.69, 0.67, and 0.70 respectively for the above respective variants in ODIR multiclass disease classification.

This paper explores various socioeconomic factors that contribute to individual financial success using machine learning algorithms and approaches. Financial success, a critical aspect of all individual's well-being, is a complex concept influenced by various factors. This study aims to understand the determinants of financial success. It examines the survey data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (1), consisting of a sample of 8,984 individuals's longitudinal data over years. The dataset comprises income variables and a large set of socioeconomic variables of individuals. An in-depth analysis shows the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in financial success research, highlights the potential of leveraging longitudinal data to enhance prediction accuracy, and provides valuable insights into how various socioeconomic factors influence financial success. The findings highlight the significant influence of highest education degree, occupation and gender as the top three determinants of individual income among socioeconomic factors examined. Yearly working hours, age and work tenure follow as three secondary influencing factors, and all other factors including parental household income, industry, parents' highest grade and others are identified as tertiary factors. These insights allow researchers to better understand the complex nature of financial success, and are also crucial for fostering financial success among individuals and advancing broader societal well-being by providing insights for policymakers during decision-making process.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms struggle to perform well when exposed to imbalanced training data. In this scenario, the generated pseudo-labels can exhibit a bias towards the majority class, and models that employ these pseudo-labels can further amplify this bias. Here we investigate pseudo-labeling strategies for imbalanced SSL including pseudo-label refinement and threshold adjustment, through the lens of statistical analysis. We find that existing SSL algorithms which generate pseudo-labels using heuristic strategies or uncalibrated model confidence are unreliable when imbalanced class distributions bias pseudo-labels. To address this, we introduce SEmi-supervised learning with pseudo-label optimization based on VALidation data (SEVAL) to enhance the quality of pseudo-labelling for imbalanced SSL. We propose to learn refinement and thresholding parameters from a partition of the training dataset in a class-balanced way. SEVAL adapts to specific tasks with improved pseudo-labels accuracy and ensures pseudo-labels correctness on a per-class basis. Our experiments show that SEVAL surpasses state-of-the-art SSL methods, delivering more accurate and effective pseudo-labels in various imbalanced SSL situations. SEVAL, with its simplicity and flexibility, can enhance various SSL techniques effectively.

We propose a graph-based tracking formulation for multi-object tracking (MOT) where target detections contain kinematic information and re-identification features (attributes). Our method applies a successive shortest paths (SSP) algorithm to a tracking graph defined over a batch of frames. The edge costs in this tracking graph are computed via a message-passing network, a graph neural network (GNN) variant. The parameters of the GNN, and hence, the tracker, are learned end-to-end on a training set of example ground-truth tracks and detections. Specifically, learning takes the form of bilevel optimization guided by our novel loss function. We evaluate our algorithm on simulated scenarios to understand its sensitivity to scenario aspects and model hyperparameters. Across varied scenario complexities, our method compares favorably to a strong baseline.

Continuous learning from an immense volume of data streams becomes exceptionally critical in the internet era. However, data streams often do not conform to the same distribution over time, leading to a phenomenon called concept drift. Since a fixed static model is unreliable for inferring concept-drifted data streams, establishing an adaptive mechanism for detecting concept drift is crucial. Current methods for concept drift detection primarily assume that the labels or error rates of downstream models are given and/or underlying statistical properties exist in data streams. These approaches, however, struggle to address high-dimensional data streams with intricate irregular distribution shifts, which are more prevalent in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose MCD-DD, a novel concept drift detection method based on maximum concept discrepancy, inspired by the maximum mean discrepancy. Our method can adaptively identify varying forms of concept drift by contrastive learning of concept embeddings without relying on labels or statistical properties. With thorough experiments under synthetic and real-world scenarios, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing baselines in identifying concept drifts and enables qualitative analysis with high explainability.

Machine learning has been successfully applied in developing malware detection systems, with a primary focus on accuracy, and increasing attention to reducing computational overhead and improving model interpretability. However, an important question remains underexplored: How well can machine learning-based models detect entirely new forms of malware not present in the training data? In this study, we present a machine learning-based system for detecting obfuscated malware that is not only highly accurate, lightweight and interpretable, but also capable of successfully adapting to new types of malware attacks. Our system is capable of detecting 15 malware subtypes despite being exclusively trained on one malware subtype, namely the Transponder from the Spyware family. This system was built after training 15 distinct random forest-based models, each on a different malware subtype from the CIC-MalMem-2022 dataset. These models were evaluated against the entire range of malware subtypes, including all unseen malware subtypes. To maintain the system's streamlined nature, training was confined to the top five most important features, which also enhanced interpretability. The Transponder-focused model exhibited high accuracy, exceeding 99.8%, with an average processing speed of 5.7 microseconds per file. We also illustrate how the Shapley additive explanations technique can facilitate the interpretation of the model predictions. Our research contributes to advancing malware detection methodologies, pioneering the feasibility of detecting obfuscated malware by exclusively training a model on a single or a few carefully selected malware subtypes and applying it to detect unseen subtypes.

Graph classification benchmarks, vital for assessing and developing graph neural networks (GNNs), have recently been scrutinized, as simple methods like MLPs have demonstrated comparable performance. This leads to an important question: Do these benchmarks effectively distinguish the advancements of GNNs over other methodologies? If so, how do we quantitatively measure this effectiveness? In response, we first propose an empirical protocol based on a fair benchmarking framework to investigate the performance discrepancy between simple methods and GNNs. We further propose a novel metric to quantify the dataset effectiveness by considering both dataset complexity and model performance. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to thoroughly study and provide an explicit definition for dataset effectiveness in the graph learning area. Through testing across 16 real-world datasets, we found our metric to align with existing studies and intuitive assumptions. Finally, we explore the causes behind the low effectiveness of certain datasets by investigating the correlation between intrinsic graph properties and class labels, and we developed a novel technique supporting the correlation-controllable synthetic dataset generation. Our findings shed light on the current understanding of benchmark datasets, and our new platform could fuel the future evolution of graph classification benchmarks.

Machine learning and quantum computing are being progressively explored to shed light on possible computational approaches to deal with hitherto unsolvable problems. Classical methods for machine learning are ubiquitous in pattern recognition, with support vector machines (SVMs) being a prominent technique for network classification. However, there are limitations to the successful resolution of such classification instances when the input feature space becomes large, and the successive evaluation of so-called kernel functions becomes computationally exorbitant. The use of principal component analysis (PCA) substantially minimizes the dimensionality of feature space thereby enabling computational speed-ups of supervised learning: the creation of a classifier. Further, the application of quantum-based learning to the PCA reduced input feature space might offer an exponential speedup with fewer parameters. The present learning model is evaluated on a real clinical application: the diagnosis of Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP) disorder. The results suggest that quantum machine learning has led to noticeable advancement and outperforms classical frameworks. The optimized variational quantum classifier classifies the PSP dataset with 86% accuracy as compared to conventional SVM. The other technique, a quantum kernel estimator, approximates the kernel function on the quantum machine and optimizes a classical SVM. In particular, we have demonstrated the successful application of the present model on both a quantum simulator and real chips of the IBM quantum platform.

Models like Delphi have been able to label ethical dilemmas as moral or immoral with astonishing accuracy. This paper challenges accuracy as a holistic metric for ethics modeling by identifying issues with translating moral dilemmas into text-based input. It demonstrates these issues with contrast sets that substantially reduce the performance of classifiers trained on the dataset Moral Stories. Ultimately, we obtain concrete estimates for how much specific forms of data misrepresentation harm classifier accuracy. Specifically, label-changing tweaks to the descriptive content of a situation (as small as 3-5 words) can reduce classifier accuracy to as low as 51%, almost half the initial accuracy of 99.8%. Associating situations with a misleading social norm lowers accuracy to 98.8%, while adding textual bias (i.e. an implication that a situation already fits a certain label) lowers accuracy to 77%. These results suggest not only that many ethics models have substantially overfit, but that several precautions are required to ensure that input accurately captures a moral dilemma. This paper recommends re-examining the structure of a social norm, training models to ask for context with defeasible reasoning, and filtering input for textual bias. Doing so not only gives us the first concrete estimates of the average cost to accuracy of misrepresenting ethics data, but gives researchers practical tips for considering these estimates in research.