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 Performance Analysis


AI-Driven Strategies for Reducing Student Withdrawal -- A Study of EMU Student Stopout

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Not everyone who enrolls in college will leave with a certificate or degree, but the number of people who drop out or take a break is much higher than experts previously believed. In December 2013, there were 29 million people with some college education but no degree. That number jumped to 36 million by December of 2018, according to a new report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center[1]. It is imperative to understand the underlying factors contributing to student withdrawal and to assist decision-makers to identify effective strategies to prevent it. By analyzing the characteristics and educational pathways of the stopout student population, our aim is to provide actionable insights that can benefit institutions facing similar challenges. Eastern Michigan University (EMU) faces significant challenges in student retention, with approximately 55% of its undergraduate students not completing their degrees within six years. As an institution committed to student success, EMU conducted a comprehensive study of student withdrawals to understand the influencing factors. And the paper revealed a high correlation between certain factors and withdrawals, even in the early stages of university attendance. Based on these findings, we developed a predictive model that employs artificial intelligence techniques to assess the potential risk that students abandon their studies. These models enable universities to implement early intervention strategies, support at-risk students, and improve overall higher education success.


Heterogeneous graph attention network improves cancer multiomics integration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increase in high-dimensional multiomics data demands advanced integration models to capture the complexity of human diseases. Graph-based deep learning integration models, despite their promise, struggle with small patient cohorts and high-dimensional features, often applying independent feature selection without modeling relationships among omics. Furthermore, conventional graph-based omics models focus on homogeneous graphs, lacking multiple types of nodes and edges to capture diverse structures. We introduce a Heterogeneous Graph ATtention network for omics integration (HeteroGATomics) to improve cancer diagnosis. HeteroGATomics performs joint feature selection through a multi-agent system, creating dedicated networks of feature and patient similarity for each omic modality. These networks are then combined into one heterogeneous graph for learning holistic omic-specific representations and integrating predictions across modalities. Experiments on three cancer multiomics datasets demonstrate HeteroGATomics' superior performance in cancer diagnosis. Moreover, HeteroGATomics enhances interpretability by identifying important biomarkers contributing to the diagnosis outcomes.


The Literature Review Network: An Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Systematic Literature Reviews, Meta-analyses, and Method Development

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Systematic literature reviews are the highest quality of evidence in research. However, the review process is hindered by significant resource and data constraints. The Literature Review Network (LRN) is the first of its kind explainable AI platform adhering to PRISMA 2020 standards, designed to automate the entire literature review process. LRN was evaluated in the domain of surgical glove practices using 3 search strings developed by experts to query PubMed. A non-expert trained all LRN models. Performance was benchmarked against an expert manual review. Explainability and performance metrics assessed LRN's ability to replicate the experts' review. Concordance was measured with the Jaccard index and confusion matrices. Researchers were blinded to the other's results until study completion. Overlapping studies were integrated into an LRN-generated systematic review. LRN models demonstrated superior classification accuracy without expert training, achieving 84.78% and 85.71% accuracy. The highest performance model achieved high interrater reliability (k = 0.4953) and explainability metrics, linking 'reduce', 'accident', and 'sharp' with 'double-gloving'. Another LRN model covered 91.51% of the relevant literature despite diverging from the non-expert's judgments (k = 0.2174), with the terms 'latex', 'double' (gloves), and 'indication'. LRN outperformed the manual review (19,920 minutes over 11 months), reducing the entire process to 288.6 minutes over 5 days. This study demonstrates that explainable AI does not require expert training to successfully conduct PRISMA-compliant systematic literature reviews like an expert. LRN summarized the results of surgical glove studies and identified themes that were nearly identical to the clinical researchers' findings. Explainable AI can accurately expedite our understanding of clinical practices, potentially revolutionizing healthcare research.


Evaluating Posterior Probabilities: Decision Theory, Proper Scoring Rules, and Calibration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Most machine learning classifiers are designed to output posterior probabilities for the classes given the input sample. These probabilities may be used to make the categorical decision on the class of the sample; provided as input to a downstream system; or provided to a human for interpretation. Evaluating the quality of the posteriors generated by these system is an essential problem which was addressed decades ago with the invention of proper scoring rules (PSRs). Unfortunately, much of the recent machine learning literature uses calibration metrics -- most commonly, the expected calibration error (ECE) -- as a proxy to assess posterior performance. The problem with this approach is that calibration metrics reflect only one aspect of the quality of the posteriors, ignoring the discrimination performance. For this reason, we argue that calibration metrics should play no role in the assessment of posterior quality. Expected PSRs should instead be used for this job, preferably normalized for ease of interpretation. In this work, we first give a brief review of PSRs from a practical perspective, motivating their definition using Bayes decision theory. We discuss why expected PSRs provide a principled measure of the quality of a system's posteriors and why calibration metrics are not the right tool for this job. We argue that calibration metrics, while not useful for performance assessment, may be used as diagnostic tools during system development. With this purpose in mind, we discuss a simple and practical calibration metric, called calibration loss, derived from a decomposition of expected PSRs. We compare this metric with the ECE and with the expected score divergence calibration metric from the PSR literature and argue, using theoretical and empirical evidence, that calibration loss is superior to these two metrics.


Classification of Raw MEG/EEG Data with Detach-Rocket Ensemble: An Improved ROCKET Algorithm for Multivariate Time Series Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multivariate Time Series Classification (MTSC) is a ubiquitous problem in science and engineering, particularly in neuroscience, where most data acquisition modalities involve the simultaneous time-dependent recording of brain activity in multiple brain regions. In recent years, Random Convolutional Kernel models such as ROCKET and MiniRocket have emerged as highly effective time series classification algorithms, capable of achieving state-of-the-art accuracy results with low computational load. Despite their success, these types of models face two major challenges when employed in neuroscience: 1) they struggle to deal with high-dimensional data such as EEG and MEG, and 2) they are difficult to interpret. In this work, we present a novel ROCKET-based algorithm, named Detach-Rocket Ensemble, that is specifically designed to address these two problems in MTSC. Our algorithm leverages pruning to provide an integrated estimation of channel importance, and ensembles to achieve better accuracy and provide a label probability. Using a synthetic multivariate time series classification dataset in which we control the amount of information carried by each of the channels, we first show that our algorithm is able to correctly recover the channel importance for classification. Then, using two real-world datasets, a MEG dataset and an EEG dataset, we show that Detach-Rocket Ensemble is able to provide both interpretable channel relevance and competitive classification accuracy, even when applied directly to the raw brain data, without the need for feature engineering.


Towards Automatic Hands-on-Keyboard Attack Detection Using LLMs in EDR Solutions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Endpoint Detection and Remediation (EDR) platforms are essential for identifying and responding to cyber threats. This study presents a novel approach using Large Language Models (LLMs) to detect Hands-on-Keyboard (HOK) cyberattacks. Our method involves converting endpoint activity data into narrative forms that LLMs can analyze to distinguish between normal operations and potential HOK attacks. We address the challenges of interpreting endpoint data by segmenting narratives into windows and employing a dual training strategy. The results demonstrate that LLM-based models have the potential to outperform traditional machine learning methods, offering a promising direction for enhancing EDR capabilities and apply LLMs in cybersecurity.


Winners with Confidence: Discrete Argmin Inference with an Application to Model Selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of finding the index of the minimum value of a vector from noisy observations. This problem is relevant in population/policy comparison, discrete maximum likelihood, and model selection. We develop a test statistic that is asymptotically normal, even in high-dimensional settings and with potentially many ties in the population mean vector, by integrating concepts and tools from cross-validation and differential privacy. The key technical ingredient is a central limit theorem for globally dependent data. We also propose practical ways to select the tuning parameter that adapts to the signal landscape.


Survey on Emotion Recognition through Posture Detection and the possibility of its application in Virtual Reality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A survey is presented focused on using pose estimation techniques in Emotional recognition using various technologies normal cameras, and depth cameras for real-time, and the potential use of VR and inputs including images, videos, and 3-dimensional poses described in vector space. We discussed 19 research papers collected from selected journals and databases highlighting their methodology, classification algorithm, and the used datasets that relate to emotion recognition and pose estimation. A benchmark has been made according to their accuracy as it was the most common performance measurement metric used. We concluded that the multimodal Approaches overall made the best accuracy and then we mentioned futuristic concerns that can improve the development of this research topic. Introduction Emotion recognition is one of the main vital tasks essential for having an intelligent system or application.


Attention is all you need for an improved CNN-based flash flood susceptibility modeling. The case of the ungauged Rheraya watershed, Morocco

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective flood hazard management requires evaluating and predicting flash flood susceptibility. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are commonly used for this task but face issues like gradient explosion and overfitting. This study explores the use of an attention mechanism, specifically the convolutional block attention module (CBAM), to enhance CNN models for flash flood susceptibility in the ungauged Rheraya watershed, a flood prone region. We used ResNet18, DenseNet121, and Xception as backbone architectures, integrating CBAM at different locations. Our dataset included 16 conditioning factors and 522 flash flood inventory points. Performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Results showed that CBAM significantly improved model performance, with DenseNet121 incorporating CBAM in each convolutional block achieving the best results (accuracy = 0.95, AUC = 0.98). Distance to river and drainage density were identified as key factors. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the attention mechanism in improving flash flood susceptibility modeling and offer valuable insights for disaster management.


Advancing Green AI: Efficient and Accurate Lightweight CNNs for Rice Leaf Disease Identification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Rice plays a vital role as a primary food source for over half of the world's population, and its production is critical for global food security. Nevertheless, rice cultivation is frequently affected by various diseases that can severely decrease yield and quality. Therefore, early and accurate detection of rice diseases is necessary to prevent their spread and minimize crop losses. In this research, we explore three mobile-compatible CNN architectures, namely ShuffleNet, MobileNetV2, and EfficientNet-B0, for rice leaf disease classification. These models are selected due to their compatibility with mobile devices, as they demand less computational power and memory compared to other CNN models. To enhance the performance of the three models, we added two fully connected layers separated by a dropout layer. We used early stop creation to prevent the model from being overfiting. The results of the study showed that the best performance was achieved by the EfficientNet-B0 model with an accuracy of 99.8%. Meanwhile, MobileNetV2 and ShuffleNet only achieved accuracies of 84.21% and 66.51%, respectively. This study shows that EfficientNet-B0 when combined with the proposed layer and early stop, can produce a high-accuracy model. Keywords: rice leaf detection; green AI; smart agriculture; EfficientNet;