Performance Analysis
Balancing the Scales: A Comprehensive Study on Tackling Class Imbalance in Binary Classification
Abdelhamid, Mohamed, Desai, Abhyuday
Class imbalance in binary classification tasks remains a significant challenge in machine learning, often resulting in poor performance on minority classes. This study comprehensively evaluates three widely-used strategies for handling class imbalance: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), Class Weights tuning, and Decision Threshold Calibration. We compare these methods against a baseline scenario of no-intervention across 15 diverse machine learning models and 30 datasets from various domains, conducting a total of 9,000 experiments. Performance was primarily assessed using the F1-score, although our study also tracked results on additional 9 metrics including F2-score, precision, recall, Brier-score, PR-AUC, and AUC. Our results indicate that all three strategies generally outperform the baseline, with Decision Threshold Calibration emerging as the most consistently effective technique. However, we observed substantial variability in the best-performing method across datasets, highlighting the importance of testing multiple approaches for specific problems. This study provides valuable insights for practitioners dealing with imbalanced datasets and emphasizes the need for dataset-specific analysis in evaluating class imbalance handling techniques.
An Unbiased Risk Estimator for Partial Label Learning with Augmented Classes
Hu, Jiayu, Shu, Senlin, Li, Beibei, Xiang, Tao, He, Zhongshi
Partial Label Learning (PLL) is a typical weakly supervised learning task, which assumes each training instance is annotated with a set of candidate labels containing the ground-truth label. Recent PLL methods adopt identification-based disambiguation to alleviate the influence of false positive labels and achieve promising performance. However, they require all classes in the test set to have appeared in the training set, ignoring the fact that new classes will keep emerging in real applications. To address this issue, in this paper, we focus on the problem of Partial Label Learning with Augmented Class (PLLAC), where one or more augmented classes are not visible in the training stage but appear in the inference stage. Specifically, we propose an unbiased risk estimator with theoretical guarantees for PLLAC, which estimates the distribution of augmented classes by differentiating the distribution of known classes from unlabeled data and can be equipped with arbitrary PLL loss functions. Besides, we provide a theoretical analysis of the estimation error bound of the estimator, which guarantees the convergence of the empirical risk minimizer to the true risk minimizer as the number of training data tends to infinity. Furthermore, we add a risk-penalty regularization term in the optimization objective to alleviate the influence of the over-fitting issue caused by negative empirical risk. Extensive experiments on benchmark, UCI and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
DelayPTC-LLM: Metro Passenger Travel Choice Prediction under Train Delays with Large Language Models
Chen, Chen, He, Yuxin, Wang, Hao, Chen, Jingjing, Luo, Qin
Accurately predicting passenger travel choices under train delays can provide interpretable insights into the redistribution of passenger flow, offering crucial decision support for emergency response and service recovery. However, the diversity of travel choices due to passenger heterogeneity and the sparsity of delay events leads to issues of data sparsity and sample imbalance in the travel choices dataset under metro delays. It is challenging to model this problem using traditional machine learning approaches, which typically rely on large, balanced datasets. Given the strengths of large language models (LLMs) in text processing, understanding, and their capabilities in small-sample and even zero-shot learning, this paper proposes a novel Passenger Travel Choice prediction framework under metro delays with the Large Language Model (DelayPTC-LLM). The well-designed prompting engineering is developed to guide the LLM in making and rationalizing predictions about travel choices, taking into account passenger heterogeneity and features of the delay events. Utilizing real-world data from Shenzhen Metro, including Automated Fare Collection (AFC) data and detailed delay logs, a comparative analysis of DelayPTC-LLM with traditional prediction models demonstrates the superior capability of LLMs in handling complex, sparse datasets commonly encountered under disruption of transportation systems. The results validate the advantages of DelayPTC-LLM in terms of predictive accuracy and its potential to provide actionable insights for big traffic data.
Differentially Private Non Parametric Copulas: Generating synthetic data with non parametric copulas under privacy guarantees
Osorio-Marulanda, Pablo A., Ramirez, John Esteban Castro, Jimรฉnez, Mikel Hernรกndez, Reyes, Nicolas Moreno, Unanue, Gorka Epelde
Creation of synthetic data models has represented a significant advancement across diverse scientific fields, but this technology also brings important privacy considerations for users. This work focuses on enhancing a non-parametric copula-based synthetic data generation model, DPNPC, by incorporating Differential Privacy through an Enhanced Fourier Perturbation method. The model generates synthetic data for mixed tabular databases while preserving privacy. We compare DPNPC with three other models (PrivBayes, DP-Copula, and DP-Histogram) across three public datasets, evaluating privacy, utility, and execution time. DPNPC outperforms others in modeling multivariate dependencies, maintaining privacy for small $\epsilon$ values, and reducing training times. However, limitations include the need to assess the model's performance with different encoding methods and consider additional privacy attacks. Future research should address these areas to enhance privacy-preserving synthetic data generation.
Multi-modal Medical Image Fusion For Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Classification
Hassan, Salma, Hammadi, Hamad Al, Mohammed, Ibrahim, Khan, Muhammad Haris
The early detection and nuanced subtype classification of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a predominant cause of cancer mortality worldwide, is a critical and complex issue. In this paper, we introduce an innovative integration of multi-modal data, synthesizing fused medical imaging (CT and PET scans) with clinical health records and genomic data. This unique fusion methodology leverages advanced machine learning models, notably MedClip and BEiT, for sophisticated image feature extraction, setting a new standard in computational oncology. Our research surpasses existing approaches, as evidenced by a substantial enhancement in NSCLC detection and classification precision. The results showcase notable improvements across key performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Specifically, our leading multi-modal classifier model records an impressive accuracy of 94.04%. We believe that our approach has the potential to transform NSCLC diagnostics, facilitating earlier detection and more effective treatment planning and, ultimately, leading to superior patient outcomes in lung cancer care.
Multi-Source Hard and Soft Information Fusion Approach for Accurate Cryptocurrency Price Movement Prediction
Dashtaki, Saeed Mohammadi, Chagahi, Mehdi Hosseini, Moshiri, Behzad, Piran, Md. Jalil
One of the most important challenges in the financial and cryptocurrency field is accurately predicting cryptocurrency price trends. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) is beneficial in addressing this challenge. Cryptocurrency markets, marked by substantial growth and volatility, attract investors and scholars keen on deciphering and forecasting cryptocurrency price movements. The vast and diverse array of data available for such predictions increases the complexity of the task. In our study, we introduce a novel approach termed hard and soft information fusion (HSIF) to enhance the accuracy of cryptocurrency price movement forecasts. The hard information component of our approach encompasses historical price records alongside technical indicators. Complementing this, the soft data component extracts from X (formerly Twitter), encompassing news headlines and tweets about the cryptocurrency. To use this data, we use the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based sentiment analysis method, financial BERT (FinBERT), which performs best. Finally, our model feeds on the information set including processed hard and soft data. We employ the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model because processing information in both forward and backward directions can capture long-term dependencies in sequential information. Our empirical findings emphasize the superiority of the HSIF approach over models dependent on single-source data by testing on Bitcoin-related data. By fusing hard and soft information on Bitcoin dataset, our model has about 96.8\% accuracy in predicting price movement. Incorporating information enables our model to grasp the influence of social sentiment on price fluctuations, thereby supplementing the technical analysis-based predictions derived from hard information.
Fairness-aware Multiobjective Evolutionary Learning
Zhang, Qingquan, Liu, Jialin, Yao, Xin
Multiobjective evolutionary learning (MOEL) has demonstrated its advantages of training fairer machine learning models considering a predefined set of conflicting objectives, including accuracy and different fairness measures. Recent works propose to construct a representative subset of fairness measures as optimisation objectives of MOEL throughout model training. However, the determination of a representative measure set relies on dataset, prior knowledge and requires substantial computational costs. What's more, those representative measures may differ across different model training processes. Instead of using a static predefined set determined before model training, this paper proposes to dynamically and adaptively determine a representative measure set online during model training. The dynamically determined representative set is then used as optimising objectives of the MOEL framework and can vary with time. Extensive experimental results on 12 well-known benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework achieves outstanding performance compared to state-of-the-art approaches for mitigating unfairness in terms of accuracy as well as 25 fairness measures although only a few of them were dynamically selected and used as optimisation objectives. The results indicate the importance of setting optimisation objectives dynamically during training.
Reducing Overtreatment of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Using a Multimodal Deep Learning Model
Athreya, Shreeram, Melehy, Andrew, Suthahar, Sujit Silas Armstrong, Iveziฤ, Vedrana, Radhachandran, Ashwath, Sant, Vivek, Moleta, Chace, Zheng, Henry, Patel, Maitraya, Masamed, Rinat, Arnold, Corey W., Speier, William
Objective: Molecular testing (MT) classifies cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules as benign or malignant with high sensitivity but low positive predictive value (PPV), only using molecular profiles, ignoring ultrasound (US) imaging and biopsy. We address this limitation by applying attention multiple instance learning (AMIL) to US images. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 333 patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules at UCLA medical center (259 benign, 74 malignant). A multi-modal deep learning AMIL model was developed, combining US images and MT to classify the nodules as benign or malignant and enhance the malignancy risk stratification of MT. Results: The final AMIL model matched MT sensitivity (0.946) while significantly improving PPV (0.477 vs 0.448 for MT alone), indicating fewer false positives while maintaining high sensitivity. Conclusion: Our approach reduces false positives compared to MT while maintaining the same ability to identify positive cases, potentially reducing unnecessary benign thyroid resections in patients with indeterminate nodules.
Kinematic Detection of Anomalies in Human Trajectory Data
Kennedy, Lance, Zรผfle, Andreas
Historically, much of the research in understanding, modeling, and mining human trajectory data has focused on where an individual stays. Thus, the focus of existing research has been on where a user goes. On the other hand, the study of how a user moves between locations has great potential for new research opportunities. Kinematic features describe how an individual moves between locations and can be used for tasks such as identification of individuals or anomaly detection. Unfortunately, data availability and quality challenges make kinematic trajectory mining difficult. In this paper, we leverage the Geolife dataset of human trajectories to investigate the viability of using kinematic features to identify individuals and detect anomalies. We show that humans have an individual "kinematic profile" which can be used as a strong signal to identify individual humans. We experimentally show that, for the two use-cases of individual identification and anomaly detection, simple kinematic features fed to standard classification and anomaly detection algorithms significantly improve results.
A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Models
Li, Siheng, Yang, Cheng, Wu, Taiqiang, Shi, Chufan, Zhang, Yuji, Zhu, Xinyu, Cheng, Zesen, Cai, Deng, Yu, Mo, Liu, Lemao, Zhou, Jie, Yang, Yujiu, Wong, Ngai, Wu, Xixin, Lam, Wai
Honesty is a fundamental principle for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values, requiring these models to recognize what they know and don't know and be able to faithfully express their knowledge. Despite promising, current LLMs still exhibit significant dishonest behaviors, such as confidently presenting wrong answers or failing to express what they know. In addition, research on the honesty of LLMs also faces challenges, including varying definitions of honesty, difficulties in distinguishing between known and unknown knowledge, and a lack of comprehensive understanding of related research. To address these issues, we provide a survey on the honesty of LLMs, covering its clarification, evaluation approaches, and strategies for improvement. Moreover, we offer insights for future research, aiming to inspire further exploration in this important area.