Elo rating, widely used for skill assessment across diverse domains ranging from competitive games to large language models, is often understood as an incremental update algorithm for estimating a stationary Bradley-Terry (BT) model. However, our empirical analysis of practical matching datasets reveals two surprising findings: (1) Most games deviate significantly from the assumptions of the BT model and stationarity, raising questions on the reliability of Elo. (2) Despite these deviations, Elo frequently outperforms more complex rating systems, such as mElo and pairwise models, which are specifically designed to account for non-BT components in the data, particularly in terms of win rate prediction. This paper explains this unexpected phenomenon through three key perspectives: (a) We reinterpret Elo as an instance of online gradient descent, which provides no-regret guarantees even in misspecified and non-stationary settings. (b) Through extensive synthetic experiments on data generated from transitive but non-BT models, such as strongly or weakly stochastic transitive models, we show that the ''sparsity'' of practical matching data is a critical factor behind Elo's superior performance in prediction compared to more complex rating systems. (c) We observe a strong correlation between Elo's predictive accuracy and its ranking performance, further supporting its effectiveness in ranking.

Machine learning, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), has shown promise in medical image analysis, especially for thoracic disease detection using chest X-ray images. In this study, we evaluate various CNN architectures, including binary classification, multi-label classification, and ResNet50 models, to address challenges like dataset imbalance, variations in image quality, and hidden biases. We introduce advanced preprocessing techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA) for image compression and propose a novel class-weighted loss function to mitigate imbalance issues. Our results highlight the potential of CNNs in medical imaging but emphasize that issues like unbalanced datasets and variations in image acquisition methods must be addressed for optimal model performance.

Class imbalance remains a major challenge in machine learning, especially in multi-class problems with long-tailed distributions. Existing methods, such as data resampling, cost-sensitive techniques, and logistic loss modifications, though popular and often effective, lack solid theoretical foundations. As an example, we demonstrate that cost-sensitive methods are not Bayes consistent. This paper introduces a novel theoretical framework for analyzing generalization in imbalanced classification. We propose a new class-imbalanced margin loss function for both binary and multi-class settings, prove its strong $H$-consistency, and derive corresponding learning guarantees based on empirical loss and a new notion of class-sensitive Rademacher complexity. Leveraging these theoretical results, we devise novel and general learning algorithms, IMMAX (Imbalanced Margin Maximization), which incorporate confidence margins and are applicable to various hypothesis sets. While our focus is theoretical, we also present extensive empirical results demonstrating the effectiveness of our algorithms compared to existing baselines.

Early breast cancer detection (BCD) through mammography screening continues to be a major focus in radiology as it plays a critical role in reducing mortality rates (Coleman (2017); Ginsburg et al. (2020)). Although artificial intelligence (AI) models can help radiologists to evaluate mammograms (Sahu et al. (2023); Evans et al. (2013); Maxwell (1999)), training such models face the challenge of limited datasets that may not fully represent all subgroups or cover variations in data distributions. Historically, certain racial groups face barriers to healthcare access because of many socio-economic factors (Azin et al. (2023); Hershman et al. (2005); Hussain-Gambles et al. (2004)). This lack of access can result in datasets that do not adequately represent these groups, potentially cause AI models to show biases for these groups. Even with seemingly balanced datasets, subtle biases may persist in the collected data due to systemic inequalities in the quality of healthcare (Obermeyer et al. (2019)). Among these groups, African American patients are often underrepresented in both breast imaging and broader healthcare datasets (Yedjou et al. (2019); Newman and Kaljee (2017)).

Diffusion models generate samples by estimating the score function of the target distribution at various noise levels. The model is trained using samples drawn from the target distribution, progressively adding noise. In this work, we establish the first (nearly) dimension-free sample complexity bounds for learning these score functions, achieving a double exponential improvement in dimension over prior results. A key aspect of our analysis is the use of a single function approximator to jointly estimate scores across noise levels, a critical feature of diffusion models in practice which enables generalization across timesteps. Our analysis introduces a novel martingale-based error decomposition and sharp variance bounds, enabling efficient learning from dependent data generated by Markov processes, which may be of independent interest. Building on these insights, we propose Bootstrapped Score Matching (BSM), a variance reduction technique that utilizes previously learned scores to improve accuracy at higher noise levels. These results provide crucial insights into the efficiency and effectiveness of diffusion models for generative modeling.

The frequency of extreme flood events is increasing throughout the world. Daily, high-resolution (30m) Flood Inundation Maps (FIM) observed from space play a key role in informing mitigation and preparedness efforts to counter these extreme events. However, the temporal frequency of publicly available high-resolution FIMs, e.g., from Landsat, is at the order of two weeks thus limiting the effective monitoring of flood inundation dynamics. Conversely, global, low-resolution (~300m) Water Fraction Maps (WFM) are publicly available from NOAA VIIRS daily. Motivated by the recent successes of deep learning methods for single image super-resolution, we explore the effectiveness and limitations of similar data-driven approaches to downscaling low-resolution WFMs to high-resolution FIMs. To overcome the scarcity of high-resolution FIMs, we train our models with high-quality synthetic data obtained through physics-based simulations. We evaluate our models on real-world data from flood events in the state of Iowa. The study indicates that data-driven approaches exhibit superior reconstruction accuracy over non-data-driven alternatives and that the use of synthetic data is a viable proxy for training purposes. Additionally, we show that our trained models can exhibit superior zero-shot performance when transferred to regions with hydroclimatological similarity to the U.S. Midwest.

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in robotics has driven the development of algorithms that enable autonomous systems to adapt to complex social environments. In particular, safe and efficient social navigation is a key challenge, requiring AI not only to avoid collisions and deadlocks but also to interact intuitively and predictably with its surroundings. To date, methods based on probabilistic models and the generation of conformal safety regions have shown promising results in defining safety regions with a controlled margin of error, primarily relying on classification approaches and explicit rules to describe collision-free navigation conditions. This work explores how topological features contribute to explainable safety regions in social navigation. Instead of using behavioral parameters, we leverage topological data analysis to classify and characterize different simulation behaviors. First, we apply global rule-based classification to distinguish between safe (collision-free) and unsafe scenarios based on topological properties. Then, we define safety regions, $S_\varepsilon$, in the topological feature space, ensuring a maximum classification error of $\varepsilon$. These regions are built with adjustable SVM classifiers and order statistics, providing robust decision boundaries. Local rules extracted from these regions enhance interpretability, keeping the decision-making process transparent. Our approach initially separates simulations with and without collisions, outperforming methods that not incorporate topological features. It offers a deeper understanding of robot interactions within a navigable space. We further refine safety regions to ensure deadlock-free simulations and integrate both aspects to define a compliant simulation space that guarantees safe and efficient navigation.

Random forests are widely used in regression. However, the decision trees used as base learners are poor approximators of linear relationships. To address this limitation we propose RaFFLE (Random Forest Featuring Linear Extensions), a novel framework that integrates the recently developed PILOT trees (Piecewise Linear Organic Trees) as base learners within a random forest ensemble. PILOT trees combine the computational efficiency of traditional decision trees with the flexibility of linear model trees. To ensure sufficient diversity of the individual trees, we introduce an adjustable regularization parameter and use node-level feature sampling. These modifications improve the accuracy of the forest. We establish theoretical guarantees for the consistency of RaFFLE under weak conditions, and its faster convergence when the data are generated by a linear model. Empirical evaluations on 136 regression datasets demonstrate that RaFFLE outperforms the classical CART and random forest methods, the regularized linear methods Lasso and Ridge, and the state-of-the-art XGBoost algorithm, across both linear and nonlinear datasets. By balancing predictive accuracy and computational efficiency, RaFFLE proves to be a versatile tool for tackling a wide variety of regression problems.

Prompt engineering has emerged as a powerful technique for optimizing large language models (LLMs) for specific applications, enabling faster prototyping and improved performance, and giving rise to the interest of the community in protecting proprietary system prompts. In this work, we explore a novel perspective on prompt privacy through the lens of membership inference. We develop Prompt Detective, a statistical method to reliably determine whether a given system prompt was used by a third-party language model. Our approach relies on a statistical test comparing the distributions of two groups of model outputs corresponding to different system prompts. Through extensive experiments with a variety of language models, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Prompt Detective for prompt membership inference. Our work reveals that even minor changes in system prompts manifest in distinct response distributions, enabling us to verify prompt usage with statistical significance.

Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately, the usual Bayesian computations can be quite challenging and expensive. Here we start with a recently proposed empirical Bayes solution, with strong theoretical convergence properties, and develop a novel and computationally efficient variational approximation thereof. One such novelty is that we develop this approximation directly for the marginal distribution on the model space, rather than on the regression coefficients themselves. We demonstrate the method's strong performance in simulations, and prove that our variational approximation inherits the strong selection consistency property satisfied by the posterior distribution that it is approximating.