In this work we investigate the generalization performance of random feature ridge regression (RFRR). Our main contribution is a general deterministic equivalent for the test error of RFRR. Specifically, under a certain concentration property, we show that the test error is well approximated by a closed-form expression that only depends on the feature map eigenvalues. Notably, our approximation guarantee is non-asymptotic, multiplicative, and independent of the feature map dimension---allowing for infinite-dimensional features. We expect this deterministic equivalent to hold broadly beyond our theoretical analysis, and we empirically validate its predictions on various real and synthetic datasets. As an application, we derive sharp excess error rates under standard power-law assumptions of the spectrum and target decay. In particular, we provide a tight result for the smallest number of features achieving optimal minimax error rate.

Recent works have extended notions of feature importance to semantic concepts that are inherently interpretable to the users interacting with a black-box predictive model. Yet, precise statistical guarantees such as false positive rate and false discovery rate control are needed to communicate findings transparently, and to avoid unintended consequences in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we formalize the global (i.e., over a population) and local (i.e., for a sample) statistical importance of semantic concepts for the predictions of opaque models by means of conditional independence, which allows for rigorous testing. We use recent ideas of sequential kernelized independence testing to induce a rank of importance across concepts, and we showcase the effectiveness and flexibility of our framework on synthetic datasets as well as on image classification using several vision-language models.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial for the safe deployment of neural networks. Existing CLIP-based approaches perform OOD detection by devising novel scoring functions or sophisticated fine-tuning methods. In this work, we propose SeTAR, a novel, training-free OOD detection method that leverages selective low-rank approximation of weight matrices in vision-language and vision-only models. SeTAR enhances OOD detection via post-hoc modification of the model's weight matrices using a simple greedy search algorithm. Based on SeTAR, we further propose SeTAR+FT, a fine-tuning extension optimizing model performance for OOD detection tasks. Extensive evaluations on ImageNet1K and Pascal-VOC benchmarks show SeTAR's superior performance, reducing the relatively false positive rate by up to 18.95\% and 36.80\%

We introduce One-Shot Label-Only (OSLO) membership inference attacks (MIAs), which accurately infer a given sample's membership in a target model's training set with high precision using just a single query, where the target model only returns the predicted hard label. This is in contrast to state-of-the-art label-only attacks which require $\sim6000$ queries, yet get attack precisions lower than OSLO's.

Watermarking images is critical for tracking image provenance and proving ownership. With the advent of generative models, such as stable diffusion, that can create fake but realistic images, watermarking has become particularly important to make human-created images reliably identifiable. Unfortunately, the very same stable diffusion technology can remove watermarks injected using existing methods.To address this problem, we present ZoDiac, which uses a pre-trained stable diffusion model to inject a watermark into the trainable latent space, resulting in watermarks that can be reliably detected in the latent vector even when attacked. We evaluate ZoDiac on three benchmarks, MS-COCO, DiffusionDB, and WikiArt, and find that ZoDiac is robust against state-of-the-art watermark attacks, with a watermark detection rate above 98% and a false positive rate below 6.4%, outperforming state-of-the-art watermarking methods. We hypothesize that the reciprocating denoising process in diffusion models may inherently enhance the robustness of the watermark when faced with strong attacks and validate the hypothesis. Our research demonstrates that stable diffusion is a promising approach to robust watermarking, able to withstand even stable-diffusion-based attack methods.

Striking an optimal balance between predictive performance and fairness continues to be a fundamental challenge in machine learning. In this work, we propose a post-processing framework that facilitates fairness-aware prediction by leveraging model ensembling. Designed to operate independently of any specific model internals, our approach is widely applicable across various learning tasks, model architectures, and fairness definitions. Through extensive experiments spanning classification, regression, and survival analysis, we demonstrate that the framework effectively enhances fairness while maintaining, or only minimally affecting, predictive accuracy.

Global feature effects such as partial dependence (PD) and accumulated local effects (ALE) plots are widely used to interpret black-box models. However, they are only estimates of true underlying effects, and their reliability depends on multiple sources of error. Despite the popularity of global feature effects, these error sources are largely unexplored. In particular, the practically relevant question of whether to use training or holdout data to estimate feature effects remains unanswered. We address this gap by providing a systematic, estimator-level analysis that disentangles sources of bias and variance for PD and ALE. To this end, we derive a mean-squared-error decomposition that separates model bias, estimation bias, model variance, and estimation variance, and analyze their dependence on model characteristics, data selection, and sample size. We validate our theoretical findings through an extensive simulation study across multiple data-generating processes, learners, estimation strategies (training data, validation data, and cross-validation), and sample sizes. Our results reveal that, while using holdout data is theoretically the cleanest, potential biases arising from the training data are empirically negligible and dominated by the impact of the usually higher sample size. The estimation variance depends on both the presence of interactions and the sample size, with ALE being particularly sensitive to the latter. Cross-validation-based estimation is a promising approach that reduces the model variance component, particularly for overfitting models. Our analysis provides a principled explanation of the sources of error in feature effect estimates and offers concrete guidance on choosing estimation strategies when interpreting machine learning models.

Objective. We establish a principled method for inferring mental health related psychometric variables from neural and behavioral data using the Implicit Association Test (IAT) as the data generation engine, aiming to overcome the limited predictive performance (typically under 0.7 AUC) of the gold-standard D-score method, which relies solely on reaction times. Approach. We propose a sparse hierarchical Bayesian model that leverages multi-modal data to predict experiences related to mental illness symptoms in new participants. The model is a multivariate generalization of the D-score with trainable parameters, engineered for parameter efficiency in the small-cohort regime typical of IAT studies. Data from two IAT variants were analyzed: a suicidality-related E-IAT ($n=39$) and a psychosis-related PSY-IAT ($n=34$). Main Results. Our approach overcomes a high inter-individual variability and low within-session effect size in the dataset, reaching AUCs of 0.73 (E-IAT) and 0.76 (PSY-IAT) in the best modality configurations, though corrected 95% confidence intervals are wide ($\pm 0.18$) and results are marginally significant after FDR correction ($q=0.10$). Restricting the E-IAT to MDD participants improves AUC to 0.79 $[0.62, 0.97]$ (significant at $q=0.05$). Performance is on par with the best reference methods (shrinkage LDA and EEGNet) for each task, even when the latter were adapted to the task, while the proposed method was not. Accuracy was substantially above near-chance D-scores (0.50-0.53 AUC) in both tasks, with more consistent cross-task performance than any single reference method. Significance. Our framework shows promise for enhancing IAT-based assessment of experiences related to entrapment and psychosis, and potentially other mental health conditions, though further validation on larger and independent cohorts will be needed to establish clinical utility.

Current PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds are restricted to scalar metrics of performance, such as the loss or error rate. However, one ideally wants more information-rich certificates that control the entire distribution of possible outcomes, such as the distribution of the test loss in regression, or the probabilities of different mis-classifications. We provide the first PAC-Bayes bound capable of providing such rich information by bounding the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the empirical and true probabilities of a set of $M$ error types, which can either be discretized loss values for regression, or the elements of the confusion matrix (or a partition thereof) for classification. We transform our bound into a differentiable training objective. Our bound is especially useful in cases where the severity of different mis-classifications may change over time; existing PAC-Bayes bounds can only bound a particular pre-decided weighting of the error types. In contrast our bound implicitly controls all uncountably many weightings simultaneously.

Given samples lying on any of a number of subspaces, subspace clustering is the task of grouping the samples based on the their corresponding subspaces. Many subspace clustering methods operate by assigning a measure of affinity to each pair of points and feeding these affinities into a graph clustering algorithm. This paper proposes a new paradigm for subspace clustering that computes affinities based on the corresponding conic geometry. The proposed conic subspace clustering (CSC) approach considers the convex hull of a collection of normalized data points and the corresponding tangent cones. The union of subspaces underlying the data imposes a strong association between the tangent cone at a sample $x$ and the original subspace containing $x$. In addition to describing this novel geometric perspective, this paper provides a practical algorithm for subspace clustering that leverages this perspective, where a tangent cone membership test is used to estimate the affinities. This algorithm is accompanied with deterministic and stochastic guarantees on the properties of the learned affinity matrix, on the true and false positive rates and spread, which directly translate into the overall clustering accuracy.