Model averaging (MA) and ensembling play a crucial role in statistical and machine learning practice. When multiple candidate models are considered, MA techniques can be used to weight and combine them, often resulting in improved predictive accuracy and better estimation stability compared to model selection (MS) methods. In this paper, we address two challenges in combining least squares estimators from both theoretical and practical perspectives. We first establish several oracle inequalities for least squares MA via minimizing a Mallows' $C_p$ criterion under an arbitrary candidate model set. Compared to existing studies, these oracle inequalities yield faster excess risk and directly imply the asymptotic optimality of the resulting MA estimators under milder conditions. Moreover, we consider candidate model construction and investigate the problem of optimal all-subset combination for least squares estimators, which is an important yet rarely discussed topic in the existing literature. We show that there exists a fundamental limit to achieving the optimal all-subset MA risk. To attain this limit, we propose a novel Mallows-type MA procedure based on a dimension-adaptive $C_p$ criterion. The implicit ensembling effects of several MS procedures are also revealed and discussed. We conduct several numerical experiments to support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed Mallows-type MA estimator.

This paper proposes a scalable and interpretable framework for lane-wise highway traffic anomaly detection, leveraging multi-modal time series data extracted from surveillance cameras. Unlike traditional sensor-dependent methods, our approach uses AI-powered vision models to extract lane-specific features, including vehicle count, occupancy, and truck percentage, without relying on costly hardware or complex road modeling. We introduce a novel dataset containing 73,139 lane-wise samples, annotated with four classes of expert-validated anomalies: three traffic-related anomalies (lane blockage and recovery, foreign object intrusion, and sustained congestion) and one sensor-related anomaly (camera angle shift). Our multi-branch detection system integrates deep learning, rule-based logic, and machine learning to improve robustness and precision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision, recall, and F1-score, providing a cost-effective and scalable solution for real-world intelligent transportation systems.

Knowledge Graphs have become increasingly popular due to their wide usage in various downstream applications, including information retrieval, chatbot development, language model construction, and many others. Link prediction (LP) is a crucial downstream task for knowledge graphs, as it helps to address the problem of the incompleteness of the knowledge graphs. However, previous research has shown that knowledge graphs, often created in a (semi) automatic manner, are not free from social biases. These biases can have harmful effects on downstream applications, especially by leading to unfair behavior toward minority groups. To understand this issue in detail, we develop a framework -- AuditLP -- deploying fairness metrics to identify biased outcomes in LP, specifically how occupations are classified as either male or female-dominated based on gender as a sensitive attribute. We have experimented with the sensitive attribute of age and observed that occupations are categorized as young-biased, old-biased, and age-neutral. We conduct our experiments on a large number of knowledge triples that belong to 21 different geographies extracted from the open-sourced knowledge graph, Wikidata. Our study shows that the variance in the biased outcomes across geographies neatly mirrors the socio-economic and cultural division of the world, resulting in a transparent partition of the Global North from the Global South.

Machine Learning (ML) models are trained on in-distribution (ID) data but often encounter out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs during deployment -- posing serious risks in safety-critical domains. Recent works have focused on designing scoring functions to quantify OOD uncertainty, with score thresholds typically set based solely on ID data to achieve a target true positive rate (TPR), since OOD data is limited before deployment. However, these TPR-based thresholds leave false positive rates (FPR) uncontrolled, often resulting in high FPRs where OOD points are misclassified as ID. Moreover, fixed scoring functions and thresholds lack the adaptivity needed to handle newly observed, evolving OOD inputs, leading to sub-optimal performance. To address these challenges, we propose a human-in-the-loop framework that \emph{safely updates both scoring functions and thresholds on the fly} based on real-world OOD inputs. Our method maximizes TPR while strictly controlling FPR at all times, even as the system adapts over time. We provide theoretical guarantees for FPR control under stationary conditions and present extensive empirical evaluations on OpenOOD benchmarks to demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing methods by achieving higher TPRs while maintaining FPR control.

In regions lacking medically certified causes of death, verbal autopsy (VA) is a critical and widely used tool to ascertain the cause of death through interviews with caregivers. Data collected by VAs are often analyzed using probabilistic algorithms. The performance of these algorithms often degrades due to distributional shift across populations. Most existing VA algorithms rely on centralized training, requiring full access to training data for joint modeling. This is often infeasible due to privacy and logistical constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian Federated Learning (BFL) framework that avoids data sharing across multiple training sources. Our method enables reliable individual-level cause-of-death classification and population-level quantification of cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs), in a target domain with limited or no local labeled data. The proposed framework is modular, computationally efficient, and compatible with a wide range of existing VA algorithms as candidate models, facilitating flexible deployment in real-world mortality surveillance systems. We validate the performance of BFL through extensive experiments on two real-world VA datasets under varying levels of distribution shift. Our results show that BFL significantly outperforms the base models built on a single domain and achieves comparable or better performance compared to joint modeling.

Herb classification presents a critical challenge in botanical research, particularly in regions with rich biodiversity such as Nepal. This study introduces a novel deep learning approach for classifying 60 different herb species using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and transfer learning techniques. Using a manually curated dataset of 12,000 herb images, we developed a robust machine learning model that addresses existing limitations in herb recognition methodologies. Our research employed multiple model architectures, including DenseNet121, 50-layer Residual Network (ResNet50), 16-layer Visual Geometry Group Network (VGG16), InceptionV3, EfficientNetV2, and Vision Transformer (VIT), with DenseNet121 ultimately demonstrating superior performance. Data augmentation and regularization techniques were applied to mitigate overfitting and enhance the generalizability of the model. This work advances herb classification techniques, preserving traditional botanical knowledge and promoting sustainable herb utilization.

-- The widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been driven by significant advances in intelligent system research. However, this progress has raised concerns about data privacy, leading to a growing awareness of the need for privacy - preserving AI. In response, there has been a seismic shift in interest towards the leading paradigm for training Machine Learning (ML) models on decentralized data silos while maintaining data privacy, Federated Learning (FL). This research paper presents a comprehensive performance analysis of a cutting - edge approach to personalize ML model while preserving privacy achieved through Privacy Preserving Machine Learning with the innovative framework of Federated Personalized Learning (PPMLFPL). Regarding the increasing concerns about data privacy, this study evaluates the effectiveness of PPMLFPL addressing the critical balance between person - alized model refinement and maintaining the confidentiality of individual user data. According to our analysis, Adaptive Person - alized Cross - Silo Federated Learning with Differential Privacy (APPLE+DP) offering efficient execution whereas overall, the use of the Adaptive Personalized Cross - Silo Federated Learning with Homomorphic Encryption (APPLE+HE) algorithm for privacy - preserving machine learning tasks in federated personalized learning settings is strongly suggested. The results offer valuable insights creating it a promising scope for future advancements in the field of privacy - conscious data - driven technologies. Traditional ML models are often centralized, where all data is collected and stored in a single location for training. Privacy concerns in ML have been further exacerbated with the origin of Deep Learning (DL) models, which require even more data to achieve state - of - the - art performance.

Synthetic data has become an increasingly popular way to share data without revealing sensitive information. Though Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) are widely considered the gold standard for empirically assessing the privacy of a synthetic dataset, practitioners and researchers often rely on simpler proxy metrics such as Distance to Closest Record (DCR). These metrics estimate privacy by measuring the similarity between the training data and generated synthetic data. This similarity is also compared against that between the training data and a disjoint holdout set of real records to construct a binary privacy test. If the synthetic data is not more similar to the training data than the holdout set is, it passes the test and is considered private. In this work we show that, while computationally inexpensive, DCR and other distance-based metrics fail to identify privacy leakage. Across multiple datasets and both classical models such as Baynet and CTGAN and more recent diffusion models, we show that datasets deemed private by proxy metrics are highly vulnerable to MIAs. We similarly find both the binary privacy test and the continuous measure based on these metrics to be uninformative of actual membership inference risk. We further show that these failures are consistent across different metric hyperparameter settings and record selection methods. Finally, we argue DCR and other distance-based metrics to be flawed by design and show a example of a simple leakage they miss in practice. With this work, we hope to motivate practitioners to move away from proxy metrics to MIAs as the rigorous, comprehensive standard of evaluating privacy of synthetic data, in particular to make claims of datasets being legally anonymous.

This paper presents our simulation of cyber-attacks and detection strategies on the traffic control system in Daytona Beach, FL. using Raspberry Pi virtual machines and the OPNSense firewall, along with traffic dynamics from SUMO and exploitation via the Metasploit framework. We try to answer the research questions: are we able to identify cyber attacks by only analyzing traffic flow patterns. In this research, the cyber attacks are focused particularly when lights are randomly turned all green or red at busy intersections by adversarial attackers. Despite challenges stemming from imbalanced data and overlapping traffic patterns, our best model shows 85\% accuracy when detecting intrusions purely using traffic flow statistics. Key indicators for successful detection included occupancy, jam length, and halting durations.

Recent research on graph neural networks (GNNs) has explored mechanisms for capturing local uncertainty and exploiting graph hierarchies to mitigate data sparsity and leverage structural properties. However, the synergistic integration of these two approaches remains underexplored. This work introduces a novel architecture, the Hierarchical Uncertainty-Aware Graph Neural Network (HU-GNN), which unifies multi-scale representation learning, principled uncertainty estimation, and self-supervised embedding diversity within a single end-to-end framework. Specifically, HU-GNN adaptively forms node clusters and estimates uncertainty at multiple structural scales from individual nodes to higher levels. These uncertainty estimates guide a robust message-passing mechanism and attention weighting, effectively mitigating noise and adversarial perturbations while preserving predictive accuracy on semi-supervised classification tasks. We also offer key theoretical contributions, including a probabilistic formulation, rigorous uncertainty-calibration guarantees, and formal robustness bounds. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art robustness and interpretability.