When using observational causal models, practitioners often want to disentangle the effects of many related, partially-overlapping treatments. Examples include estimating treatment effects of different marketing touchpoints, ordering different types of products, or signing up for different services. Common approaches that estimate separate treatment coefficients are too noisy for practical decision-making. We propose a computationally light model that uses a customized ridge regression to move between a heterogeneous and a homogenous model: it substantially reduces MSE for the effects of each individual sub-treatment while allowing us to easily reconstruct the effects of an aggregated treatment. We demonstrate the properties of this estimator in theory and simulation, and illustrate how it has unlocked targeted decision-making at Wayfair.

Graphical models have been popularly used for capturing conditional independence structure in multivariate data, which are often built upon independent and identically distributed observations, limiting their applicability to complex datasets such as network-linked data. This paper proposes a nonparametric graphical model that addresses these limitations by accommodating heterogeneous graph structures without imposing any specific distributional assumptions. The proposed estimation method effectively integrates network embedding with nonparametric graphical model estimation. It further transforms the graph learning task into solving a finite-dimensional linear equation system by leveraging the properties of vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Moreover, theoretical guarantees are established for the proposed method in terms of the estimation consistency and exact recovery of the heterogeneous graph structures. Its effectiveness is also demonstrated through a variety of simulated examples and a real application to the statistician coauthorship dataset.

Background and Objective: High-throughput multi-omics technologies have proven invaluable for elucidating disease mechanisms and enabling early diagnosis. However, the high cost of multi-omics profiling imposes a significant economic burden, with over reliance on full omics data potentially leading to unnecessary resource consumption. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty-aware, multi-view dynamic decision framework for omics data classification that aims to achieve high diagnostic accuracy while minimizing testing costs. Methodology: At the single-omics level, we refine the activation functions of neural networks to generate Dirichlet distribution parameters, utilizing subjective logic to quantify both the belief masses and uncertainty mass of classification results. Belief mass reflects the support of a specific omics modality for a disease class, while the uncertainty parameter captures limitations in data quality and model discriminability, providing a more trustworthy basis for decision-making. At the multi omics level, we employ a fusion strategy based on Dempster-Shafer theory to integrate heterogeneous modalities, leveraging their complementarity to boost diagnostic accuracy and robustness. A dynamic decision mechanism is then applied that omics data are incrementally introduced for each patient until either all data sources are utilized or the model confidence exceeds a predefined threshold, potentially before all data sources are utilized. Results and Conclusion: We evaluate our approach on four benchmark multi-omics datasets, ROSMAP, LGG, BRCA, and KIPAN. In three datasets, over 50% of cases achieved accurate classification using a single omics modality, effectively reducing redundant testing. Meanwhile, our method maintains diagnostic performance comparable to full-omics models and preserves essential biological insights.

In this paper, we present a novel framework for enhancing model interpretability by integrating heatmaps produced separately by ResNet and a restructured 2D Transformer with globally weighted input saliency. We address the critical problem of spatial-temporal misalignment in existing interpretability methods, where convolutional networks fail to capture global context and Transformers lack localized precision - a limitation that impedes actionable insights in safety-critical domains like healthcare and industrial monitoring. Our method merges gradient-weighted activation maps (ResNet) and Transformer attention rollout into a unified visualization, achieving full spatial-temporal alignment while preserving real-time performance. Empirical evaluations on clinical (ECG arrhythmia detection) and industrial (energy consumption prediction) datasets demonstrate significant improvements: the hybrid framework achieves 94.1% accuracy (F1 0.93) on the PhysioNet dataset and reduces regression error to RMSE = 0.28 kWh (R2 = 0.95) on the UCI Energy Appliance dataset-outperforming standalone ResNet, Transformer, and InceptionTime baselines by 3.8-12.4%. An NLP module translates fused heatmaps into domain-specific narratives (e.g., "Elevated ST-segment between 2-4 seconds suggests myocardial ischemia"), validated via BLEU-4 (0.586) and ROUGE-L (0.650) scores. By formalizing interpretability as causal fidelity and spatial-temporal alignment, our approach bridges the gap between technical outputs and stakeholder understanding, offering a scalable solution for transparent, time-aware decision-making.

Abstract: We utilize dynamical modes as features derived from Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) data to detect meal events. By leveraging the inherent properties of underlying dynamics, these modes capture key aspects of glucose variability, enabling the identification of patterns and anomalies associated with meal consumption. This approach not only improves the accuracy of meal detection but also enhances the interpretability of the underlying glucose dynamics. By focusing on dynamical features, our method provides a robust framework for feature extraction, facilitating generalization across diverse datasets and ensuring reliable performance in real-world applications. The proposed technique offers significant advantages over traditional approaches, improving detection accuracy, detection delay, and system robustness.

In modern cancer diagnostics, Whole Slide Imaging (WSI) is widely used to digitize tissue specimens for detailed, high-resolution examination; however, other diagnostic approaches, such as liquid biopsy and molecular testing, are also utilized based on the cancer type and clinical context. While WSI has revolutionized digital histopathology by enabling automated, precise analysis, it remains vulnerable to artifacts introduced during slide preparation and scanning. These artifacts can compromise downstream image analysis. To address this challenge, we propose and compare three robust artifact detection approaches for WSIs: (1) a foundation model-based approach (FMA) using a fine-tuned Unified Neural Image (UNI) architecture, (2) a deep learning approach (DLA) built on a ResNet50 backbone, and (3) a knowledge-based approach (KBA) leveraging handcrafted features from texture, color, and frequency-based metrics. The methods target six common artifact types: tissue folds, out-of-focus regions, air bubbles, tissue damage, marker traces, and blood contamination. Evaluations were conducted on 50,000+ image patches from diverse scanners (Hamamatsu, Philips, Leica Aperio AT2) across multiple sites. The FMA achieved the highest patch-wise AUROC of 0.995 (95% CI [0.994, 0.995]), outperforming the ResNet50-based method (AUROC: 0.977, 95% CI [0.977, 0.978]) and the KBA (AUROC: 0.940, 95% CI [0.933, 0.946]). To translate detection into actionable insights, we developed a quality report scorecard that quantifies high-quality patches and visualizes artifact distributions.

The verification of transactions in blockchain networks presents a bifurcation in protocol implementation: one pathway aligns with complete state replication through full nodes, while the alternative, as outlined in Nakamoto's seminal whitepaper [1], advocates simplified payment verification (SPV) wherein clients validate transactions via header-only proofs. This paper formalises and mathematically models the latter, extending it beyond its conceptual origin into a fully specified, implementable, and security-provable protocol. In doing so, we consolidate foundational concepts from the original whitepaper, correct widespread misinterpretations, and construct a complete formal model using automata theory, game-theoretic reasoning, and complexity-theoretic metrics. This treatise employs a layered structure: beginning with an exegesis of the SPV concept as it appears in the original protocol specification, we examine the trajectory of mis-implementations, diverging threat models, and false economic assumptions. Subsequent sections provide a rigorous formalisation of SPV in a low-bandwidth adversarial context. This includes the introduction of protocol optimisations that conform to the Bitcoin protocol as defined in 2008, with proofs grounded in computational and information-theoretic primitives. Later sections analyse game-theoretic cost models for misbehaviour, followed by a discussion of implementation artefacts and evaluation in simulated hostile environments. The final structure includes appendices detailing code listings, mathematical proofs, and graphical models that substantiate the proposed design.

Introduction: Deep learning (DL) models can help detect intracranial aneurysms on CTA, but high false positive (FP) rates remain a barrier to clinical translation, despite improvement in model architectures and strategies like detection threshold tuning. We employed an automated, anatomy-based, heuristic-learning hybrid artery-vein segmentation post-processing method to further reduce FPs. Methods: Two DL models, CPM-Net and a deformable 3D convolutional neural network-transformer hybrid (3D-CNN-TR), were trained with 1,186 open-source CTAs (1,373 annotated aneurysms), and evaluated with 143 held-out private CTAs (218 annotated aneurysms). Brain, artery, vein, and cavernous venous sinus (CVS) segmentation masks were applied to remove possible FPs in the DL outputs that overlapped with: (1) brain mask; (2) vein mask; (3) vein more than artery masks; (4) brain plus vein mask; (5) brain plus vein more than artery masks. Results: CPM-Net yielded 139 true-positives (TP); 79 false-negative (FN); 126 FP. 3D-CNN-TR yielded 179 TP; 39 FN; 182 FP. FPs were commonly extracranial (CPM-Net 27.3%; 3D-CNN-TR 42.3%), venous (CPM-Net 56.3%; 3D-CNN-TR 29.1%), arterial (CPM-Net 11.9%; 3D-CNN-TR 53.3%), and non-vascular (CPM-Net 25.4%; 3D-CNN-TR 9.3%) structures. Method 5 performed best, reducing CPM-Net FP by 70.6% (89/126) and 3D-CNN-TR FP by 51.6% (94/182), without reducing TP, lowering the FP/case rate from 0.88 to 0.26 for CPM-NET, and from 1.27 to 0.62 for the 3D-CNN-TR. Conclusion: Anatomy-based, interpretable post-processing can improve DL-based aneurysm detection model performance. More broadly, automated, domain-informed, hybrid heuristic-learning processing holds promise for improving the performance and clinical acceptance of aneurysm detection models.

Ordinal classification problems, where labels exhibit a natural order, are prevalent in high-stakes fields such as medicine and finance. Accurate uncertainty quantification, including the decomposition into aleatoric (inherent variability) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) components, is crucial for reliable decision-making. However, existing research has primarily focused on nominal classification and regression. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of measures of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in ordinal classification, which is based on a suitable reduction to (entropy- and variance-based) measures for the binary case. These measures effectively capture the trade-off in ordinal classification between exact hit-rate and minimial error distances. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on various tabular ordinal benchmark datasets using ensembles of gradient-boosted trees and multi-layer perceptrons for approximate Bayesian inference. Our method significantly outperforms standard and label-wise entropy and variance-based measures in error detection, as indicated by misclassification rates and mean absolute error. Additionally, the ordinal measures show competitive performance in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the ordinal nature of classification problems when assessing uncertainty.

We propose a stochastic framework for wildfire spread prediction using deep generative diffusion models with ensemble sampling. In contrast to traditional deterministic approaches that struggle to capture the inherent uncertainty and variability of wildfire dynamics, our method generates probabilistic forecasts by sampling multiple plausible future scenarios conditioned on the same initial state. As a proof-of-concept, the model is trained on synthetic wildfire data generated by a probabilistic cellular automata-based simulator, which integrates realistic environmental features such as canopy cover, vegetation density, and terrain slope, and is grounded in historical fire events including the Chimney and Ferguson fires. To assess predictive performance and uncertainty modelling, we compare two surrogate models with identical network architecture: one trained via conventional supervised regression, and the other using a conditional diffusion framework with ensemble sampling. In the diffusion-based emulator, multiple inference passes are performed for the same input state by resampling the initial latent variable, allowing the model to capture a distribution of possible outcomes.