Model selection in non-linear models often prioritizes performance metrics over statistical tests, limiting the ability to account for sampling variability. We propose the use of a statistical test to assess the equality of variances in forecasting errors. The test builds upon the classic Morgan-Pitman approach, incorporating enhancements to ensure robustness against data with heavy-tailed distributions or outliers with high variance, plus a strategy to make residuals from machine learning models statistically independent. Through a series of simulations and real-world data applications, we demonstrate the test's effectiveness and practical utility, offering a reliable tool for model evaluation and selection in diverse contexts.

Traditional oversampling techniques--including SMOTE and its variants--generate synthetic minority samples via local interpolation but fail to capture global data distributions in high-dimensional spaces. Deep generative models based on GANs offer richer distribution modeling yet suffer from training instability and mode collapse under severe imbalance. To overcome these limitations, we introduce an oversampling framework that learns a parametric transformation to map majority samples into the minority distribution. Our approach minimizes the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between transformed and true minority samples for global alignment, and incorporates a triplet loss regularizer to enforce boundary awareness by guiding synthesized samples toward challenging borderline regions. We evaluate our method on 29 synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating consistent improvements over classical and generative baselines in AUROC, G-mean, F1-score, and MCC. These results confirm the robustness, computational efficiency, and practical utility of the proposed framework for imbalanced classification tasks.

Object re-identification (Re-ID) methods are highly sensitive to label noise, which typically leads to significant performance degradation. We address this challenge by reframing Re-ID as a supervised image similarity task and adopting a Siamese network architecture trained to capture discriminative pairwise relationships. Central to our approach is a novel statistical outlier detection (OD) framework, termed Beta-SOD (Beta mixture Similarity-based Outlier Detection), which models the distribution of cosine similarities between embedding pairs using a two-component Beta distribution mixture model. We establish a novel identifiability result for mixtures of two Beta distributions, ensuring that our learning task is well-posed. The proposed OD step complements the Re-ID architecture combining binary cross-entropy, contrastive, and cosine embedding losses that jointly optimize feature-level similarity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Beta-SOD in de-noising and Re-ID tasks for person Re-ID, on CUHK03 and Market-1501 datasets, and vehicle Re-ID, on VeRi-776 dataset. Our method shows superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods across various noise levels (10-30\%), demonstrating both robustness and broad applicability in noisy Re-ID scenarios. The implementation of Beta-SOD is available at: github.com/waqar3411/Beta-SOD

Branched broomrape (Phelipanche ramosa) is a chlorophyll-deficient parasitic weed that threatens tomato production by extracting nutrients from the host. We investigate early detection using leaf-level spectral reflectance (400-2500 nm) and ensemble machine learning. In a field experiment in Woodland, California, we tracked 300 tomato plants across growth stages defined by growing degree days (GDD). Leaf reflectance was acquired with a portable spectrometer and preprocessed (band denoising, 1 nm interpolation, Savitzky-Golay smoothing, correlation-based band reduction). Clear class differences were observed near 1500 nm and 2000 nm water absorption features, consistent with reduced leaf water content in infected plants at early stages. An ensemble combining Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM with RBF kernel, and Naive Bayes achieved 89% accuracy at 585 GDD, with recalls of 0.86 (infected) and 0.93 (noninfected). Accuracy declined at later stages (e.g., 69% at 1568 GDD), likely due to senescence and weed interference. Despite the small number of infected plants and environmental confounders, results show that proximal sensing with ensemble learning enables timely detection of broomrape before canopy symptoms are visible, supporting targeted interventions and reduced yield losses.

Animal behavior analysis plays a crucial role in understanding animal welfare, health status, and productivity in agricultural settings. However, traditional manual observation methods are time-consuming, subjective, and limited in scalability. We present a modular pipeline that leverages open-sourced state-of-the-art computer vision techniques to automate animal behavior analysis in a group housing environment. Our approach combines state-of-the-art models for zero-shot object detection, motion-aware tracking and segmentation, and advanced feature extraction using vision transformers for robust behavior recognition. The pipeline addresses challenges including animal occlusions and group housing scenarios as demonstrated in indoor pig monitoring. We validated our system on the Edinburgh Pig Behavior Video Dataset for multiple behavioral tasks. Our temporal model achieved 94.2% overall accuracy, representing a 21.2 percentage point improvement over existing methods. The pipeline demonstrated robust tracking capabilities with 93.3% identity preservation score and 89.3% object detection precision. The modular design suggests potential for adaptation to other contexts, though further validation across species would be required. The open-source implementation provides a scalable solution for behavior monitoring, contributing to precision pig farming and welfare assessment through automated, objective, and continuous analysis.

Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across decentralised clients while keeping local data private, making it a widely adopted privacy-enhancing technology (PET). Despite its privacy benefits, FL remains vulnerable to privacy attacks, including those targeting specific clients. In this paper, we study an underexplored threat where a dishonest orchestrator intentionally manipulates the aggregation process to induce targeted overfitting in the local models of specific clients. Whereas many studies in this area predominantly focus on reducing the amount of information leakage during training, we focus on enabling an early client-side detection of targeted overfitting, thereby allowing clients to disengage before significant harm occurs. In line with this, we propose three detection techniques - (a) label flipping, (b) backdoor trigger injection, and (c) model fingerprinting - that enable clients to verify the integrity of the global aggregation. We evaluated our methods on multiple datasets under different attack scenarios. Our results show that the three methods reliably detect targeted overfitting induced by the orchestrator, but they differ in terms of computational complexity, detection latency, and false-positive rates.

Long-term unemployment (LTU) is a challenge for both jobseekers and public employment services. Statistical profiling tools are increasingly used to predict LTU risk. Some profiling tools are opaque, black-box machine learning models, which raise issues of transparency and fairness. This paper investigates whether interpretable models could serve as an alternative, using administrative data from Switzerland. Traditional statistical, interpretable, and black-box models are compared in terms of predictive performance, interpretability, and fairness. It is shown that explainable boosting machines, a recent interpretable model, perform nearly as well as the best black-box models. It is also shown how model sparsity, feature smoothing, and fairness mitigation can enhance transparency and fairness with only minor losses in performance. These findings suggest that interpretable profiling provides an accountable and trustworthy alternative to black-box models without compromising performance.

Abstract-- Real-time fall detection is crucial for enabling timely interventions and mitigating the severe health consequences of falls, particularly in older adults. However, existing methods often rely on simulated data or assumptions such as prior knowledge of fall events, limiting their real-world applicability. Practical deployment also requires efficient computation and robust evaluation metrics tailored to continuous monitoring. This paper presents a real-time fall detection framework for continuous monitoring without prior knowledge of fall events. Using over 60 hours of inertial measurement unit (IMU) data from the FARSEEING real-world falls dataset, we employ recent efficient classifiers to compute fall probabilities in streaming mode. To enhance robustness, we introduce a cost-sensitive learning strategy that tunes the decision threshold using a cost function reflecting the higher risk of missed falls compared to false alarms. Unlike many methods that achieve high recall only at the cost of precision, our framework achieved Recall of 1.00, Precision of 0.84, and an F These results demonstrate that cost-sensitive threshold tuning enhances the robustness of accelerometer-based fall detection. They also highlight the potential of our computationally efficient framework for deployment in real-time wearable sensor systems for continuous monitoring. A fall is an event that results in a person coming to rest unintentionally on the ground, floor, or other lower level [1].

The visual system of a robot has different requirements depending on the application: it may require high accuracy or reliability, be constrained by limited resources or need fast adaptation to dynamically changing environments. In this work, we focus on the instance segmentation task and provide a comprehensive study of different techniques that allow adapting an object segmentation model in presence of novel objects or different domains. We propose a pipeline for fast instance segmentation learning designed for robotic applications where data come in stream. It is based on an hybrid method leveraging on a pre-trained CNN for feature extraction and fast-to-train Kernel-based classifiers. We also propose a training protocol that allows to shorten the training time by performing feature extraction during the data acquisition. We benchmark the proposed pipeline on two robotics datasets and we deploy it on a real robot, i.e. the iCub humanoid. To this aim, we adapt our method to an incremental setting in which novel objects are learned on-line by the robot. The code to reproduce the experiments is publicly available on GitHub.

Understanding how atmospheric molecular clusters form and grow is key to resolving one of the biggest uncertainties in climate modelling: the formation of new aerosol particles. While quantum chemistry offers accurate insights into these early-stage clusters, its steep computational costs limit large-scale exploration. In this work, we present a fast, interpretable, and surprisingly powerful alternative: $k$-nearest neighbour ($k$-NN) regression model. By leveraging chemically informed distance metrics, including a kernel-induced metric and one learned via metric learning for kernel regression (MLKR), we show that simple $k$-NN models can rival more complex kernel ridge regression (KRR) models in accuracy, while reducing computational time by orders of magnitude. We perform this comparison with the well-established Faber-Christensen-Huang-Lilienfeld (FCHL19) molecular descriptor, but other descriptors (e.g., FCHL18, MBDF, and CM) can be shown to have similar performance. Applied to both simple organic molecules in the QM9 benchmark set and large datasets of atmospheric molecular clusters (sulphuric acid-water and sulphuric-multibase -base systems), our $k$-NN models achieve near-chemical accuracy, scale seamlessly to datasets with over 250,000 entries, and even appears to extrapolate to larger unseen clusters with minimal error (often nearing 1 kcal/mol). With built-in interpretability and straightforward uncertainty estimation, this work positions $k$-NN as a potent tool for accelerating discovery in atmospheric chemistry and beyond.