Then, we propose a series of DP-SignRP algorithms that leverage the robustness of the "sign flipping probability" of random projections.

We used reliable public data from 1970 to 2020 to curate attributes like prior criminal counts and recidivism outcomes. The dataset contains large number of samples from five racial groups, in addition to information like sex and age (at judgment and first offense).

For example, in healthcare domains, such annotations may be obtained by asking clinicians what they think would happen to the patient if a different treatment were to be used.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Developing high-performing, yet interpretable models remains a critical challenge in modern AI. Concept-based models (CBMs) attempt to address this by extracting human-understandable concepts from a global encoding (e.g., image encoding) and then applying a linear classifier on the resulting concept activations, enabling transparent decision-making. However, their reliance on holistic image encodings limits their expressiveness in object-centric real-world settings and thus hinders their ability to solve complex vision tasks beyond single-label classification. To tackle these challenges, we introduce Object-Centric Concept Bottlenecks (OCB), a framework that combines the strengths of CBMs and pre-trained object-centric foundation models, boosting performance and interpretability. We evaluate OCB on complex image datasets and conduct a comprehensive ablation study to analyze key components of the framework, such as strategies for aggregating object-concept encodings. The results show that OCB outperforms traditional CBMs and allows one to make interpretable decisions for complex visual tasks.

Trustworthy verifiers are essential for the success of reinforcement learning with verifiable reward (RLVR), which is the core methodology behind various large reasoning models such as DeepSeek-R1. In complex domains like mathematical reasoning, rule-based verifiers have been widely adopted in previous works to train strong reasoning models. However, the reliability of these verifiers and their impact on the RL training process remain poorly understood. In this work, we take mathematical reasoning as a case study and conduct a comprehensive analysis of various verifiers in both static evaluation and RL training scenarios. First, we find that current open-source rule-based verifiers often fail to recognize equivalent answers presented in different formats across multiple commonly used mathematical datasets, resulting in non-negligible false negative rates. This limitation adversely affects RL training performance and becomes more pronounced as the policy model gets stronger. Subsequently, we investigate model-based verifiers as a potential solution to address these limitations. While the static evaluation shows that model-based verifiers achieve significantly higher verification accuracy, further analysis and RL results imply that they are highly susceptible to hacking, where they misclassify certain patterns in responses as correct, particularly after fine-tuning. This vulnerability is exploited during policy model optimization, leading to artificially inflated rewards. Our findings underscore the unique challenges inherent to both rule-based and model-based verifiers and provide insights toward developing more accurate and robust reward systems for reinforcement learning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are capable of recalling multilingual factual knowledge present in their pretraining data. However, most studies evaluate only the final model, leaving the development of factual recall and crosslingual consistency throughout pretraining largely unexplored. In this work, we trace how factual recall and crosslingual consistency evolve during pretraining, focusing on OLMo-7B as a case study. We find that both accuracy and consistency improve over time for most languages. We show that this improvement is primarily driven by the fact frequency in the pretraining corpus: more frequent facts are more likely to be recalled correctly, regardless of language. Yet, some low-frequency facts in non-English languages can still be correctly recalled. Our analysis reveals that these instances largely benefit from crosslingual transfer of their English counterparts -- an effect that emerges predominantly in the early stages of pretraining. We pinpoint two distinct pathways through which multilingual factual knowledge acquisition occurs: (1) frequency-driven learning, which is dominant and language-agnostic, and (2) crosslingual transfer, which is limited in scale and typically constrained to relation types involving named entities. We release our code and data to facilitate further research at https://github.com/cisnlp/multilingual-fact-tracing.