This paper deals with the problem of nonparametric independence testing, a fundamental decision-theoretic problem that asks if two arbitrary (possibly multivariate) random variables $X,Y$ are independent or not, a question that comes up in many fields like causality and neuroscience. While quantities like correlation of $X,Y$ only test for (univariate) linear independence, natural alternatives like mutual information of $X,Y$ are hard to estimate due to a serious curse of dimensionality. A recent approach, avoiding both issues, estimates norms of an \textit{operator} in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs). Our main contribution is strong empirical evidence that by employing \textit{shrunk} operators when the sample size is small, one can attain an improvement in power at low false positive rates. We analyze the effects of Stein shrinkage on a popular test statistic called HSIC (Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion). Our observations provide insights into two recently proposed shrinkage estimators, SCOSE and FCOSE - we prove that SCOSE is (essentially) the optimal linear shrinkage method for \textit{estimating} the true operator; however, the non-linearly shrunk FCOSE usually achieves greater improvements in \textit{test power}. This work is important for more powerful nonparametric detection of subtle nonlinear dependencies for small samples.

We present two new statistical machine learning methods designed to learn on fully homomorphic encrypted (FHE) data. The introduction of FHE schemes following Gentry (2009) opens up the prospect of privacy preserving statistical machine learning analysis and modelling of encrypted data without compromising security constraints. We propose tailored algorithms for applying extremely random forests, involving a new cryptographic stochastic fraction estimator, and na\"{i}ve Bayes, involving a semi-parametric model for the class decision boundary, and show how they can be used to learn and predict from encrypted data. We demonstrate that these techniques perform competitively on a variety of classification data sets and provide detailed information about the computational practicalities of these and other FHE methods.

In recommendation systems, one is interested in the ranking of the predicted items as opposed to other losses such as the mean squared error. Although a variety of ways to evaluate rankings exist in the literature, here we focus on the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) as it widely used and has a strong theoretical underpinning. In practical recommendation, only items at the top of the ranked list are presented to the users. With this in mind, we propose a class of objective functions over matrix factorisations which primarily represent a smooth surrogate for the real AUC, and in a special case we show how to prioritise the top of the list. The objectives are differentiable and optimised through a carefully designed stochastic gradient-descent-based algorithm which scales linearly with the size of the data. In the special case of square loss we show how to improve computational complexity by leveraging previously computed measures. To understand theoretically the underlying matrix factorisation approaches we study both the consistency of the loss functions with respect to AUC, and generalisation using Rademacher theory. The resulting generalisation analysis gives strong motivation for the optimisation under study. Finally, we provide computation results as to the efficacy of the proposed method using synthetic and real data.

Significant pattern mining, the problem of finding itemsets that are significantly enriched in one class of objects, is statistically challenging, as the large space of candidate patterns leads to an enormous multiple testing problem. Recently, the concept of testability was proposed as one approach to correct for multiple testing in pattern mining while retaining statistical power. Still, these strategies based on testability do not allow one to condition the test of significance on the observed covariates, which severely limits its utility in biomedical applications. Here we propose a strategy and an efficient algorithm to perform significant pattern mining in the presence of categorical covariates with K states.

We consider the problem of identifying patterns in a data set that exhibit anomalous behavior, often referred to as anomaly detection. Similarity-based anomaly detection algorithms detect abnormally large amounts of similarity or dissimilarity, e.g.~as measured by nearest neighbor Euclidean distances between a test sample and the training samples. In many application domains there may not exist a single dissimilarity measure that captures all possible anomalous patterns. In such cases, multiple dissimilarity measures can be defined, including non-metric measures, and one can test for anomalies by scalarizing using a non-negative linear combination of them. If the relative importance of the different dissimilarity measures are not known in advance, as in many anomaly detection applications, the anomaly detection algorithm may need to be executed multiple times with different choices of weights in the linear combination. In this paper, we propose a method for similarity-based anomaly detection using a novel multi-criteria dissimilarity measure, the Pareto depth. The proposed Pareto depth analysis (PDA) anomaly detection algorithm uses the concept of Pareto optimality to detect anomalies under multiple criteria without having to run an algorithm multiple times with different choices of weights. The proposed PDA approach is provably better than using linear combinations of the criteria and shows superior performance on experiments with synthetic and real data sets.

Stream mining poses unique challenges to machine learning: predictive models are required to be scalable, incrementally trainable, must remain bounded in size (even when the data stream is arbitrarily long), and be nonparametric in order to achieve high accuracy even in complex and dynamic environments. Moreover, the learning system must be parameterless ---traditional tuning methods are problematic in streaming settings--- and avoid requiring prior knowledge of the number of distinct class labels occurring in the stream. In this paper, we introduce a new algorithmic approach for nonparametric learning in data streams. Our approach addresses all above mentioned challenges by learning a model that covers the input space using simple local classifiers. The distribution of these classifiers dynamically adapts to the local (unknown) complexity of the classification problem, thus achieving a good balance between model complexity and predictive accuracy. We design four variants of our approach of increasing adaptivity. By means of an extensive empirical evaluation against standard nonparametric baselines, we show state-of-the-art results in terms of accuracy versus model size. For the variant that imposes a strict bound on the model size, we show better performance against all other methods measured at the same model size value. Our empirical analysis is complemented by a theoretical performance guarantee which does not rely on any stochastic assumption on the source generating the stream.

Most existing binary classification methods target on the optimization of the overall classification risk and may fail to serve some real-world applications such as cancer diagnosis, where users are more concerned with the risk of misclassifying one specific class than the other. Neyman-Pearson (NP) paradigm was introduced in this context as a novel statistical framework for handling asymmetric type I/II error priorities. It seeks classifiers with a minimal type II error and a constrained type I error under a user specified level. This article is the first attempt to construct classifiers with guaranteed theoretical performance under the NP paradigm in high-dimensional settings. Based on the fundamental Neyman-Pearson Lemma, we used a plug-in approach to construct NP-type classifiers for Naive Bayes models. The proposed classifiers satisfy the NP oracle inequalities, which are natural NP paradigm counterparts of the oracle inequalities in classical binary classification. Besides their desirable theoretical properties, we also demonstrated their numerical advantages in prioritized error control via both simulation and real data studies.

This paper focuses on finding spatial and temporal criminal hotspots. It analyses two different real-world crimes datasets for Denver, CO and Los Angeles, CA and provides a comparison between the two datasets through a statistical analysis supported by several graphs. Then, it clarifies how we conducted Apriori algorithm to produce interesting frequent patterns for criminal hotspots. In addition, the paper shows how we used Decision Tree classifier and Naive Bayesian classifier in order to predict potential crime types. To further analyse crimes datasets, the paper introduces an analysis study by combining our findings of Denver crimes dataset with its demographics information in order to capture the factors that might affect the safety of neighborhoods. The results of this solution could be used to raise awareness regarding the dangerous locations and to help agencies to predict future crimes in a specific location within a particular time.

We introduce extensions of stability selection, a method to stabilise variable selection methods introduced by Meinshausen and B\"uhlmann (J R Stat Soc 72:417-473, 2010). We propose to apply a base selection method repeatedly to random observation subsamples and covariate subsets under scrutiny, and to select covariates based on their selection frequency. We analyse the effects and benefits of these extensions. Our analysis generalizes the theoretical results of Meinshausen and B\"uhlmann (J R Stat Soc 72:417-473, 2010) from the case of half-samples to subsamples of arbitrary size. We study, in a theoretical manner, the effect of taking random covariate subsets using a simplified score model. Finally we validate these extensions on numerical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, and compare the obtained results in detail to the original stability selection method.

In 2008, the CEO of the company that manages and maintains the public bicycle service in Barcelona recognized that one may not expect to always find a place to leave the rented bike nearby their destination, similarly to the case when, driving a car, people may not find a parking lot. In this work, we make predictions about the statuses of the stations of the public bicycle service in Barcelona. We show that it is feasible to correctly predict nearly half of the times when the stations are either completely full of bikes or completely empty, up to 2 days before they actually happen. That is, users might avoid stations at times when they could not return a bicycle that they have rented before, or when they would not find a bike to rent. To achieve that, we apply the Random Forest algorithm to classify the status of the stations and improve the lifetime of the models using publicly available data, such as information about the weather forecast. Finally, we expect that the results of the predictions can be used to improve the quality of the service and make it more reliable for the users.