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Machine Learning Enabled Early Warning System For Financial Distress Using Real-Time Digital Signals

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

International Journal of Applied Mathematics Volume 38 No. 5 s, 2025 ISSN: 1311 - 1728 (printed version); ISSN: 1314 - 8060 (on - line version) Received: August 0 7, 2025 550 Abstract The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their effectiveness. This study introduces a machine learning - based early warning system that utilizes real - time digital and macroeconomic signals to identify financial distress in near real - time. Using a panel dataset of 750 households tracked over three monitoring rounds spa nning 13 months, the framework combines socioeconomic attributes, macroeconomic indicators (such as GDP growth, inflation, and foreign exchange fluctuations), and digital economy measures (including ICT demand and market volatility). Through data preproces sing and feature engineering, we introduce lagged variables, volatility measures, and interaction terms to capture both gradual and sudden changes in financial stability. We benchmark baseline classifiers, such as logistic regression and decision trees, ag ainst advanced ensemble models including random forests, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Our results indicate that the engineered features from the digital economy significantly enhance predictive accuracy. The system performs reliably for both binary distress dete ction and multi - class severity classification, with SHAP - based explanations identifying inflation volatility and ICT demand as key predictors. Crucially, the framework is International Journal of Applied Mathematics Volume 38 No. 5 s, 2025 ISSN: 1311 - 1728 (printed version); ISSN: 1314 - 8060 (on - line version) Received: August 0 7, 2025 551 By implementing machine learning in a transparent and interpretable manner, this study demonstrates the feasibility and impact of providing near - real - time early warnings of financial distress. This offers actionable insights that can strengthen household resilience and guide preemptive intervention strategies. Keywords: Financial Distress, Early Warning Systems, Machine Learning, Digital Economy, Temporal Classification, Explainable AI 1. Introduction 1.1 Background and Motivation The prediction of financial distress has long been recognized as a critical element for ensuring economic resilience and mitigating systemic risk across households, firms, and national economies.


Adapting Noise-Driven PUF and AI for Secure WBG ICS: A Proof-of-Concept Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wide-bandgap (WBG) technologies offer unprecedented improvements in power system efficiency, size, and performance, but also introduce unique sensor corruption and cybersecurity risks in industrial control systems (ICS), particularly due to high-frequency noise and sophisticated cyber-physical threats. This proof-of-concept (PoC) study demonstrates the adaptation of a noise-driven physically unclonable function (PUF) and machine learning (ML)-assisted anomaly detection framework to the demanding environment of WBG-based ICS sensor pathways. By extracting entropy from unavoidable WBG switching noise (up to 100 kHz) as a PUF source, and simultaneously using this noise as a real-time threat indicator, the proposed system unites hardware-level authentication and anomaly detection. Our approach integrates hybrid machine learning (ML) models with adaptive Bayesian filtering, providing robust and low-latency detection capabilities resilient to both natural electromagnetic interference (EMI) and active adversarial manipulation. Through detailed simulations of WBG modules under benign and attack scenarios--including EMI injection, signal tampering, and node impersonation--we achieve 95% detection accuracy and sub-millisecond processing latency. These results demonstrate the feasibility of physics-driven, dual-use noise exploitation as a scalable ICS defense primitive. Our findings lay the groundwork for next-generation security strategies that leverage inherent device characteristics, bridging hardware and artificial intelligence (AI) for enhanced protection of critical ICS infrastructure.


Multi-dataset Joint Pre-training of Emotional EEG Enables Generalizable Affective Computing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Task-specific pre-training is essential when task representations diverge from generic pre-training features. Existing task-general pre-training EEG models struggle with complex tasks like emotion recognition due to mismatches between task-specific features and broad pre-training approaches. This work aims to develop a task-specific multi-dataset joint pre-training framework for cross-dataset emotion recognition, tackling problems of large inter-dataset distribution shifts, inconsistent emotion category definitions, and substantial inter-subject variability. We introduce a cross-dataset covariance alignment loss to align second-order statistical properties across datasets, enabling robust generalization without the need for extensive labels or per-subject calibration. To capture the long-term dependency and complex dynamics of EEG, we propose a hybrid encoder combining a Mamba-like linear attention channel encoder and a spatiotemporal dynamics model. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art large-scale EEG models by an average of 4.57% in AUROC for few-shot emotion recognition and 11.92% in accuracy for zero-shot generalization to a new dataset. Performance scales with the increase of datasets used in pre-training. Multi-dataset joint pre-training achieves a performance gain of 8.55% over single-dataset training. This work provides a scalable framework for task-specific pre-training and highlights its benefit in generalizable affective computing. Our code is available at https://github.com/ncclab-sustech/mdJPT_nips2025.


RGC: a radio AGN classifier based on deep learning. I. A semi-supervised model for the VLA images of bent radio AGNs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wide-angle tail (WAT) and narrow-angle tail (NAT) radio active galactic nuclei (RAGNs) are key tracers of dense environments in galaxy groups and clusters, yet no machine-learning classifier of bent RAGNs has been trained using both unlabeled data and purely visually inspected labels. We release the RGC Python package, which includes two newly preprocessed labeled datasets of 639 WATs and NATs derived from a publicly available catalog of visually inspected sources, along with a semi-supervised RGC model that leverages 20,000 unlabeled RAGNs. The two labeled datasets in RGC were preprocessed using PyBDSF which retains spurious sources, and Photutils which removes them. The RGC model integrates the self-supervised framework BYOL (Bootstrap YOur Latent) with the supervised E2CNN (E2-equivariant Convolutional Neural Network) to form a semi-supervised binary classifier. The RGC model, when trained and evaluated on a dataset devoid of spurious sources, reaches peak performance, attaining an accuracy of 88.88% along with F1-scores of 0.90 for WATs and 0.85 for NATs. The model's attention patterns amid class imbalance suggest that this work can serve as a stepping stone toward developing physics-informed foundation models capable of identifying a broad range of AGN physical properties.


Mint: A Simple Test-Time Adaptation of Vision-Language Models against Common Corruptions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pretrained vision-language models such as CLIP achieve strong zero-shot generalization but remain vulnerable to distribution shifts caused by input corruptions. In this work, we investigate how corruptions affect CLIP's image embeddings and uncover a consistent phenomenon we term as embedding variance collapse, where both intra-class and inter-class variances shrink as corruption severity increases. We find that this collapse is closely tied to performance degradation, with inter-class variance strongly correlated with classification accuracy. To explain this phenomenon, we analyze how corruptions alter the structure of the embedding space. Our theoretical results suggest that the visual encoder tends to encode corruption-related signals, which dilute class-discriminative features and compress the representation geometry. We further show that maximizing inter-class variance, even when estimated from pseudo-labels, can provably enhance embedding quality. Based on this insight, we propose Mint, a simple test-time adaptation method that maximizes pseudo-label-based inter-class variance on the fly using a mean accumulator and a gradient accumulator. Mint operates effectively with small batch sizes and consistently improves performance across multiple corruption benchmarks and CLIP architectures. Our code is available at https://github.com/baowenxuan/Mint .


Scaling Up Efficient Small Language Models Serving and Deployment for Semantic Job Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive quality when applied to predictive tasks such as relevance ranking and semantic search. However, deployment of such LLMs remains prohibitively expensive for industry applications with strict latency and throughput requirements. In this work, we present lessons and efficiency insights from developing a purely text-based decoder-only Small Language Model (SLM) for a semantic search application at LinkedIn. Particularly, we discuss model compression techniques such as pruning that allow us to reduce the model size by up to $40\%$ while maintaining the accuracy. Additionally, we present context compression techniques that allow us to reduce the input context length by up to $10$x with minimal loss of accuracy. Finally, we present practical lessons from optimizing the serving infrastructure for deploying such a system on GPUs at scale, serving millions of requests per second. Taken together, this allows us to increase our system's throughput by $10$x in a real-world deployment, while meeting our quality bar.


Training data membership inference via Gaussian process meta-modeling: a post-hoc analysis approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) test whether a data point was part of a model's training set, posing serious privacy risks. Existing methods often depend on shadow models or heavy query access, which limits their practicality. We propose GP-MIA, an efficient and interpretable approach based on Gaussian process (GP) meta-modeling. Using post-hoc metrics such as accuracy, entropy, dataset statistics, and optional sensitivity features (e.g. gradients, NTK measures) from a single trained model, GP-MIA trains a GP classifier to distinguish members from non-members while providing calibrated uncertainty estimates. Experiments on synthetic data, real-world fraud detection data, CIFAR-10, and WikiText-2 show that GP-MIA achieves high accuracy and generalizability, offering a practical alternative to existing MIAs.


Precise classification of low quality G-banded Chromosome Images by reliability metrics and data pruning classifier

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the last decade, due to high resolution cameras and accurate meta - phase analyzes, the accuracy of chromosome classification has improved substantially. However, current Karyotyping systems demand large number of high quality train data to have an adequa tely plausible Precision per each chromosome. Such provision of high quality train data with accurate devices are not yet accomplished in some out - reached pathological laboratories. To prevent false positive detections in low - cost systems and low - quality i mages settings, this paper improves the classification Precision of chromosomes using proposed reliability thresholding metrics and deliberately engineered features. The proposed method has been evaluated using a variation of deep Alex - Net neural network, SVM, K - Nearest - Neighbors, and their cascade pipelines to an automated filtering of semi - straight chromosome. The classification results have highly improved over 90% for the chromosomes with more common defections and translocations. Furthermore, a compara tive analysis over the proposed thresholding metrics has been conducted and the best metric is bolded with its salient characteristics. The high Precision results provided for a very low - quality G - banding database verifies suitability of the proposed metri cs and pruning method for Karyotyping facilities in poor countries and low - budget pathological laboratories. Keywords: G - banded Karyotyping, Precision, Reliability metrics, Pattern Recognition, Medical Imaging 1 Introduction One of the ways to study and dia gnose birth - defects and biological disorders is through using Cytogenetics. This branch of science endeavors to analyze chromosome shapes and patterns to find out common defects. The methods used for such analyzes includes G - Banding, Fluorescent In - Situ Hy bridization (FISH), Comparative Genomic Hybridization (CGH) and Chromosome - specific unique - sequence probes [27] . While Molecular Cytogenetics methods are effective in biological disorders, they do not necessarily manifest specific chromosome defects. FISH methods, though having higher accuracy results in stains, are costly and unable to identify all chromosome abnorm alities. Being temporary in sustaining fluorescence detector, they demand higher provision effort and substance supply that might not be affordable for some countries . Furthermore, detecting some abnormalities implies having G - banding technique involved an d not merely using stains.


Beyond Point Matching: Evaluating Multiscale Dubuc Distance for Time Series Similarity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Time series are high-dimensional and complex data objects, making their efficient search and indexing a longstanding challenge in data mining. Building on a recently introduced similarity measure, namely Multiscale Dubuc Distance (MDD), this paper investigates its comparative strengths and limitations relative to the widely used Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). MDD is novel in two key ways: it evaluates time series similarity across multiple temporal scales and avoids point-to-point alignment. We demonstrate that in many scenarios where MDD outperforms DTW, the gains are substantial, and we provide a detailed analysis of the specific performance gaps it addresses. We provide simulations, in addition to the 95 datasets from the UCR archive, to test our hypotheses. Finally, we apply both methods to a challenging real-world classification task and show that MDD yields a significant improvement over DTW, underscoring its practical utility. Time series, or more generally, ordered high-dimensional data types, have become increasingly prevalent with the rise of powerful computational tools and machine learning techniques. In this study, we adopt the term time series as an umbrella label for all such sequential data. A central challenge in analyzing time series lies in defining and measuring similarity. Similarity is inherently subjective, shaped by the specific goals and nuances of a given application. The existing literature has produced a rich landscape of similarity measures, each tailored to specific assumptions and use cases.


Wavelet-based GAN Fingerprint Detection using ResNet50

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Identifying images generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) has become a significant challenge in digital image forensics. This research presents a wavelet-based detection method that uses discrete wavelet transform (DWT) preprocessing and a ResNet50 classification layer to differentiate the StyleGAN-generated images from real ones. Haar and Daubechies wavelet filters are applied to convert the input images into multi-resolution representations, which will then be fed to a ResNet50 network for classification, capitalizing on subtle artifacts left by the generative process. Moreover, the wavelet-based models are compared to an identical ResNet50 model trained on spatial data. The Haar and Daubechies preprocessed models achieved a greater accuracy of 93.8 percent and 95.1 percent, much higher than the model developed in the spatial domain (accuracy rate of 81.5 percent). The Daubechies-based model outperforms Haar, showing that adding layers of descriptive frequency patterns can lead to even greater distinguishing power. These results indicate that the GAN-generated images have unique wavelet-domain artifacts or "fingerprints." The method proposed illustrates the effectiveness of wavelet-domain analysis to detect GAN images and emphasizes the potential of further developing the capabilities of future deepfake detection systems.