Performance Analysis
Land Use Classification Using Multi-neighborhood LBPs
Abstract-- In this paper we propose the use of multiple local binary patterns(LBPs) to effectively classify land use images. We use the UC Merced 21 class land use image dataset. Task is challenging for classification as the dataset contains intra class variability and inter class similarities. Our proposed method of using multi-neighborhood LBPs combined with nearest neighbor classifier is able to achieve an accuracy of 77.76%. Further class wise analysis is conducted and suitable suggestion are made for further improvements to classification accuracy. INTRODUCTION The world is changing rapidly, new technology and infrastructure is resulting in faster growth. To meet the demands of the growing populations, cities are expanding and land use pattern are changing to accommodate the needs.
Modeling Heterogeneity in Mode-Switching Behavior Under a Mobility-on-Demand Transit System: An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach
Zhao, Xilei, Yan, Xiang, Van Hentenryck, Pascal
Recent years have witnessed an increased focus on interpretability and the use of machine learning to inform policy analysis and decision making. This paper applies machine learning to examine travel behavior and, in particular, on modeling changes in travel modes when individuals are presented with a novel (on-demand) mobility option. It addresses the following question: Can machine learning be applied to model individual taste heterogeneity (preference heterogeneity for travel modes and response heterogeneity to travel attributes) in travel mode choice? This paper first develops a high-accuracy classifier to predict mode-switching behavior under a hypothetical Mobility-on-Demand Transit system (i.e., stated-preference data), which represents the case study underlying this research. We show that this classifier naturally captures individual heterogeneity available in the data. Moreover, the paper derives insights on heterogeneous switching behaviors through the generation of marginal effects and elasticities by current travel mode, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots. The paper also proposes two new model-agnostic interpretation tools for machine learning, i.e., conditional partial dependence plots and conditional individual partial dependence plots, specifically designed to examine response heterogeneity. The results on the case study show that the machine-learning classifier, together with model-agnostic interpretation tools, provides valuable insights on travel mode switching behavior for different individuals and population segments. For example, the existing drivers are more sensitive to additional pickups than people using other travel modes, and current transit users are generally willing to share rides but reluctant to take any additional transfers.
Ensemble Prediction of Time to Event Outcomes with Competing Risks: A Case Study of Surgical Complications in Crohn's Disease
Sachs, Michael C, Discacciati, Andrea, Everhov, ร sa, Olรฉn, Ola, Gabriel, Erin E
Motivating study and statistical approaches Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic debilitating condition characterized by periods of inflammatory activity in the bowel that causes symptoms such as abdominal pain, diarrhea, andweight loss. Pharmacologic treatment for CD includes medications such as steroids, immunomodulating drugs, and biological therapy. Despite these available medications, many people with CD are escalated to surgical interventions from small to extensive resections of the bowel or colon (Gomollรณn et al., 2016). Previous studies have estimated that up to 50% of patients with CD undergo surgery within 10 years after diagnosis; however, surgical rates have decreased over time, possibly due to the introduction of modern treatments such as thiopurines and anti-TNF (Lakatos et al., 2012; Ramadas et al., 2010). The aim of this study is to determine whether clinical and demographic characteristics observed at the time of diagnosis can be used to predict the occurrence of major abdominal surgery within 5 years, with the goal of personalized disease management.
Concomitant Lasso with Repetitions (CLaR): beyond averaging multiple realizations of heteroscedastic noise
Bertrand, Quentin, Massias, Mathurin, Gramfort, Alexandre, Salmon, Joseph
Sparsity promoting norms are frequently used in high dimensional regression. A limitation of Lasso-type estimators is that the regulariza-tion parameter depends on the noise level which varies between datasets and experiments. Esti-mators such as the concomitant Lasso address this dependence by jointly estimating the noise level and the regression coefficients. As sample sizes are often limited in high dimensional regimes, simplified heteroscedastic models are customary. However, in many experimental applications , data is obtained by averaging multiple measurements. This helps reducing the noise variance, yet it dramatically reduces sample sizes, preventing refined noise modeling. In this work, we propose an estimator that can cope with complex heteroscedastic noise structures by using non-averaged measurements and a con-comitant formulation. The resulting optimization problem is convex, so thanks to smoothing theory, it is amenable to state-of-the-art proximal coordinate descent techniques that can leverage the expected sparsity of the solutions. Practical benefits are demonstrated on simulations and on neuroimaging applications.
Supervised learning improves disease outbreak detection
Zacher, Benedikt, Czogiel, Irina
The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abberations from an expected endemic level using these data. Here, we develop the first supervised learning approach based on hidden Markov models for disease outbreak detection, which leverages data that is routinely collected within a public health surveillance system. We evaluate our model using real Salmonella and Campylobacter data, as well as simulations. In comparison to a state-of-the-art approach, which is applied in multiple European countries including Germany, our proposed model reduces the false positive rate by up to 50% while retaining the same sensitivity. We see our supervised learning approach as a significant step to further develop machine learning applications for disease outbreak detection, which will be instrumental to improve public health surveillance systems.
Principal Model Analysis Based on Partial Least Squares
Xie, Qiwei, Tang, Liang, Li, Weifu, John, Vijay, Hu, Yong
Motivated by the Bagging Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithms, we propose a Principal Model Analysis (PMA) method in this paper. In the proposed PMA algorithm, the PCA and the PLS are combined. In the method, multiple PLS models are trained on sub-training sets, derived from the original training set based on the random sampling with replacement method. The regression coefficients of all the sub-PLS models are fused in a joint regression coefficient matrix. The final projection direction is then estimated by performing the PCA on the joint regression coefficient matrix. The proposed PMA method is compared with other traditional dimension reduction methods, such as PLS, Bagging PLS, Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and PLS-LDA. Experimental results on six public datasets show that our proposed method can achieve better classification performance and is usually more stable.
A Bayesian Approach for Accurate Classification-Based Aggregates
Meertens, Q. A., Diks, C. G. H., Herik, H. J. van den, Takes, F W
In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for highly accurate classification algorithms, in particular when dealing with class-imbalanced data. To correct this bias, the algorithm's classification error rates have to be estimated. In this estimation, two issues arise when applying existing bias correction methods. First, inaccuracies in estimating classification error rates have to be taken into account. Second, impermissible estimates, such as a negative estimate for a positive value, have to be dismissed. We show that both issues are relevant in applications where the true labels are known only for a small set of data points. We propose a novel bias correction method using Bayesian inference. The novelty of our method is that it imposes constraints on the model parameters. We show that our method solves the problem of biased classification-based aggregates as well as the two issues above, in the general setting of multi-class classification. In the empirical evaluation, using a binary classifier on a real-world dataset of company tax returns, we show that our method outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error.
Is AmI (Attacks Meet Interpretability) Robust to Adversarial Examples?
INTERPRETABILITY" AmI (Attacks meet Interpretability) is an "attribute-steered" defense [3] to detect [1] adversarial examples [2] on facerecognition models.By applying interpretability techniques to a pre-trained neural network, AmI identifies "important" neurons. It then creates a second augmented neural network with the same parameters but increases the weight activations of important neurons. AmI rejects inputs where the original and augmented neural network disagree.
Generative Image Translation for Data Augmentation of Bone Lesion Pathology
Gupta, Anant, Venkatesh, Srivas, Chopra, Sumit, Ledig, Christian
Insufficient training data and severe class imbalance are often limiting factors when developing machine learning models for the classification of rare diseases. In this work, we address the problem of classifying bone lesions from X-ray images by increasing the small number of positive samples in the training set. We propose a generative data augmentation approach based on a cycle-consistent generative adversarial network that synthesizes bone lesions on images without pathology. We pose the generative task as an image-patch translation problem that we optimize specifically for distinct bones (humerus, tibia, femur). In experimental results, we confirm that the described method mitigates the class imbalance problem in the binary classification task of bone lesion detection. We show that the augmented training sets enable the training of superior classifiers achieving better performance on a held-out test set. Additionally, we demonstrate the feasibility of transfer learning and apply a generative model that was trained on one body part to another.
Equal Opportunity in Online Classification with Partial Feedback
Bechavod, Yahav, Ligett, Katrina, Roth, Aaron, Waggoner, Bo, Wu, Zhiwei Steven
We study an online classification problem with partial feedback in which individuals arrive one at a time from a fixed but unknown distribution, and must be classified as positive or negative. Our algorithm only observes the true label of an individual if they are given a positive classification. This setting captures many classification problems for which fairness is a concern: for example, in criminal recidivism prediction, recidivism is only observed if the inmate is released; in lending applications, loan repayment is only observed if the loan is granted. We require that our algorithms satisfy common statistical fairness constraints (such as equalizing false positive or negative rates --- introduced as "equal opportunity" in Hardt et al. (2016)) at every round, with respect to the underlying distribution. We give upper and lower bounds characterizing the cost of this constraint in terms of the regret rate (and show that it is mild), and give an oracle efficient algorithm that achieves the upper bound.