Neuroscientists have enjoyed much success in understanding brain functions by constructing brain connectivity networks using data collected under highly controlled experimental settings. However, these experimental settings bear little resemblance to our real-life experience in day-to-day interactions with the surroundings. To address this issue, neuroscientists have been measuring brain activity under natural viewing experiments in which the subjects are given continuous stimuli, such as watching a movie or listening to a story. The main challenge with this approach is that the measured signal consists of both the stimulus-induced signal, as well as intrinsic-neural and non-neuronal signals. By exploiting the experimental design, we propose to estimate stimulus-locked brain network by treating non-stimulus-induced signals as nuisance parameters. In many neuroscience applications, it is often important to identify brain regions that are connected to many other brain regions during cognitive process. We propose an inferential method to test whether the maximum degree of the estimated network is larger than a pre-specific number. We prove that the type I error can be controlled and that the power increases to one asymptotically. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of our method. Finally, we analyze a functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset obtained under the Sherlock Holmes movie stimuli.

We consider learning ancestral causal relationships in high dimensions. Our approach is driven by a supervised learning perspective, with discrete indicators of causal relationships treated as labels to be learned from available data. We focus on the setting in which some causal (ancestral) relationships are known (via background knowledge or experimental data) and put forward a general approach that scales to large problems. This is motivated by problems in human biology which are characterized by high dimensionality and potentially many latent variables. We present a case study involving interventional data from human cells with total dimension $p \! \sim \! 19{,}000$. Performance is assessed empirically by testing model output against previously unseen interventional data. The proposed approach is highly effective and demonstrably scalable to the human genome-wide setting. We consider sensitivity to background knowledge and find that results are robust to nontrivial perturbations of the input information. We consider also the case, relevant to some applications, where the only prior information available concerns a small number of known ancestral relationships.

In this paper, we consider a problem of failure prediction in the context of predictive maintenance applications. We present a new approach for rare failures prediction, based on a general methodology, which takes into account peculiar properties of technical systems. We illustrate the applicability of the method on the real-world test cases from aircraft operations.

When recruiting job candidates, employers rarely observe their underlying skill level directly. Instead, they must administer a series of interviews and/or collate other noisy signals in order to estimate the worker's skill. Traditional economics papers address screening models where employers access worker skill via a single noisy signal. In this paper, we extend this theoretical analysis to a multi-test setting, considering both Bernoulli and Gaussian models. We analyze the optimal employer policy both when the employer sets a fixed number of tests per candidate and when the employer can set a dynamic policy, assigning further tests adaptively based on results from the previous tests. To start, we characterize the optimal policy when employees constitute a single group, demonstrating some interesting trade-offs. Subsequently, we address the multi-group setting, demonstrating that when the noise levels vary across groups, a fundamental impossibility emerges whereby we cannot administer the same number of tests, subject candidates to the same decision rule, and yet realize the same outcomes in both groups.

This paper introduces Perturbed Model Validation (PMV), a new technique to validate model relevance and detect overfitting or underfitting. PMV operates by injecting noise to the training data, re-training the model against the perturbed data, then using the training accuracy decrease rate to assess model relevance. A larger decrease rate indicates better concept-hypothesis fit. We realise PMV by perturbing labels to inject noise, and evaluate PMV on four real-world datasets (breast cancer, adult, connect-4, and MNIST) and nine synthetic datasets in the classification setting. The results reveal that PMV selects models more precisely and in a more stable way than cross-validation, and effectively detects both overfitting and underfitting.

AP (Average precision) is a popular metric in measuring the accuracy of object detectors like Faster R-CNN, SSD, etc. Average precision computes the average precision value for recall value over 0 to 1. It sounds complicated but actually pretty simple as we illustrate it with an example. But before that, we will do a quick recap on precision, recall, and IoU first. Precision measures how accurate is your predictions. Recall measures how good you find all the positives.

Deep generative models (DGMs) of images are now sufficiently mature that they produce nearly photorealistic samples and obtain scores similar to the data distribution on heuristics such as Frechet Inception Distance. These results, especially on large-scale datasets such as ImageNet, suggest that DGMs are learning the data distribution in a perceptually meaningful space, and can be used in downstream tasks. To test this latter hypothesis, we use class-conditional generative models from a number of model classes---variational autoencoder, autoregressive models, and generative adversarial networks---to infer the class labels of real data. We perform this inference by training the image classifier using only synthetic data, and using the classifier to predict labels on real data. The performance on this task, which we call Classification Accuracy Score (CAS), highlights some surprising results not captured by traditional metrics and comprise our contributions. First, when using a state-of-the-art GAN (BigGAN), Top-5 accuracy decreases by 41.6% compared to the original data and conditional generative models from other model classes, such as high-resolution VQ-VAE and Hierarchical Autoregressive Models, substantially outperform GANs on this benchmark. Second, CAS automatically surfaces particular classes for which generative models failed to capture the data distribution, and were previously unknown in the literature. Third, we find traditional GAN metrics such as Frechet Inception Distance neither predictive of CAS nor useful when evaluating non-GAN models. Finally, we introduce Naive Augmentation Score, a variant of CAS where the image classifier is trained on both real and synthetic data, to demonstrate that naive augmentation improves classification performance in limited circumstances. In order to facilitate better diagnoses of generative models, we open-source the proposed metric.

Despite the tremendous progress in the estimation of generative models, the development of tools for diagnosing their failures and assessing their performance has advanced at a much slower pace. Recent developments have investigated metrics that quantify which parts of the true distribution are modeled well, and, on the contrary, what the model fails to capture, akin to precision and recall in information retrieval. In this paper, we present a general evaluation framework for generative models that measures the trade-off between precision and recall using R\'enyi divergences. Our framework provides a novel perspective on existing techniques and extends them to more general domains. As a key advantage, it allows for efficient algorithms that are directly applicable to continuous distributions directly without discretization. We further showcase the proposed techniques on a set of image synthesis models.

In this paper, we consider the nonparametric least square regression in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). We propose a new randomized algorithm that has optimal generalization error bounds with respect to the square loss, closing a long-standing gap between upper and lower bounds. Moreover, we show that our algorithm has faster finite-time and asymptotic rates on problems where the Bayes risk with respect to the square loss is small. We state our results using standard tools from the theory of least square regression in RKHSs, namely, the decay of the eigenvalues of the associated integral operator and the complexity of the optimal predictor measured through the integral operator.

Online learning algorithms update models via one sample per iteration, thus efficient to process large-scale datasets and useful to detect malicious events for social benefits, such as disease outbreak and traffic congestion on the fly. However, existing algorithms for graph-structured models focused on the offline setting and the least square loss, incapable for online setting, while methods designed for online setting cannot be directly applied to the problem of complex (usually non-convex) graph-structured sparsity model. To address these limitations, in this paper we propose a new algorithm for graph-structured sparsity constraint problems under online setting, which we call \textsc{GraphDA}. The key part in \textsc{GraphDA} is to project both averaging gradient (in dual space) and primal variables (in primal space) onto lower dimensional subspaces, thus capturing the graph-structured sparsity effectively. Furthermore, the objective functions assumed here are generally convex so as to handle different losses for online learning settings. To the best of our knowledge, \textsc{GraphDA} is the first online learning algorithm for graph-structure constrained optimization problems. To validate our method, we conduct extensive experiments on both benchmark graph and real-world graph datasets. Our experiment results show that, compared to other baseline methods, \textsc{GraphDA} not only improves classification performance, but also successfully captures graph-structured features more effectively, hence stronger interpretability.