Rapid damage assessment is one of the core tasks that response organizations perform at the onset of a disaster to understand the scale of damage to infrastructures such as roads, bridges, and buildings. This work analyzes the usefulness of social media imagery content to perform rapid damage assessment during a real-world disaster. An automatic image processing system, which was activated in collaboration with a volunteer response organization, processed ~280K images to understand the extent of damage caused by the disaster. The system achieved an accuracy of 76% computed based on the feedback received from the domain experts who analyzed ~29K system-processed images during the disaster. An extensive error analysis reveals several insights and challenges faced by the system, which are vital for the research community to advance this line of research.

Concept drift refers to changes in the distribution of underlying data and is an inherent property of evolving data streams. Ensemble learning, with dynamic classifiers, has proved to be an efficient method of handling concept drift. However, the best way to create and maintain ensemble diversity with evolving streams is still a challenging problem. In contrast to estimating diversity via inputs, outputs, or classifier parameters, we propose a diversity measurement based on whether the ensemble members agree on the probability of a regional distribution change. In our method, estimations over regional distribution changes are used as instance weights. Constructing different region sets through different schemes will lead to different drift estimation results, thereby creating diversity. The classifiers that disagree the most are selected to maximize diversity. Accordingly, an instance-based ensemble learning algorithm, called the diverse instance weighting ensemble (DiwE), is developed to address concept drift for data stream classification problems. Evaluations of various synthetic and real-world data stream benchmarks show the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed algorithm.

Analyzing the ever-increasing volume of posts on social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter requires improved information processing methods for profiling authorship. Document classification is central to this task, but the performance of traditional supervised classifiers has degraded as the volume of social media has increased. This paper addresses this problem in the context of gender detection through ensemble classification that employs multi-model deep learning architectures to generate specialized understanding from different feature spaces.

Local learning methods are a popular class of machine learning algorithms. The basic idea for the entire cadre is to choose some non-local model family, to train many of them on small sections of neighboring data, and then to `stitch' the resulting models together in some way. Due to the limits of constraining a training dataset to a small neighborhood, research on locally-learned models has largely been restricted to simple model families. Also, since simple model families have no complex structure by design, this has limited use of the individual local models to predictive tasks. We hypothesize that, using a sufficiently complex local model family, various properties of the individual local models, such as their learned parameters, can be used as features for further learning. This dissertation improves upon the current state of research and works toward establishing this hypothesis by investigating algorithms for localization of more complex model families and by studying their applications beyond predictions as a feature extraction mechanism. We summarize this generic technique of using local models as a feature extraction step with the term ``local model feature transformations.'' In this document, we extend the local modeling paradigm to Gaussian processes, orthogonal quadric models and word embedding models, and extend the existing theory for localized linear classifiers. We then demonstrate applications of local model feature transformations to epileptic event classification from EEG readings, activity monitoring via chest accelerometry, 3D surface reconstruction, 3D point cloud segmentation, handwritten digit classification and event detection from Twitter feeds.

The task of detecting anomalous data patterns is as important in practical applications as challenging. In the context of spatial data, recognition of unexpected trajectories brings additional difficulties, such as high dimensionality and varying pattern lengths. We aim to tackle such a problem from a probability density estimation point of view, since it provides an unsupervised procedure to identify out of distribution samples. More specifically, we pursue an approach based on normalizing flows, a recent framework that enables complex density estimation from data with neural networks. Our proposal computes exact model likelihood values, an important feature of normalizing flows, for each segment of the trajectory. Then, we aggregate the segments' likelihoods into a single coherent trajectory anomaly score. Such a strategy enables handling possibly large sequences with different lengths. We evaluate our methodology, named aggregated anomaly detection with normalizing flows (GRADINGS), using real world trajectory data and compare it with more traditional anomaly detection techniques. The promising results obtained in the performed computational experiments indicate the feasibility of the GRADINGS, specially the variant that considers autoregressive normalizing flows.

Concept drift describes unforeseeable changes in the underlying distribution of streaming data over time. Concept drift research involves the development of methodologies and techniques for drift detection, understanding and adaptation. Data analysis has revealed that machine learning in a concept drift environment will result in poor learning results if the drift is not addressed. To help researchers identify which research topics are significant and how to apply related techniques in data analysis tasks, it is necessary that a high quality, instructive review of current research developments and trends in the concept drift field is conducted. In addition, due to the rapid development of concept drift in recent years, the methodologies of learning under concept drift have become noticeably systematic, unveiling a framework which has not been mentioned in literature. This paper reviews over 130 high quality publications in concept drift related research areas, analyzes up-to-date developments in methodologies and techniques, and establishes a framework of learning under concept drift including three main components: concept drift detection, concept drift understanding, and concept drift adaptation. This paper lists and discusses 10 popular synthetic datasets and 14 publicly available benchmark datasets used for evaluating the performance of learning algorithms aiming at handling concept drift. Also, concept drift related research directions are covered and discussed. By providing state-of-the-art knowledge, this survey will directly support researchers in their understanding of research developments in the field of learning under concept drift.

We propose a new method for flagging bid rigging, which is particularly useful for detecting incomplete bid-rigging cartels. Our approach combines screens, i.e. statistics derived from the distribution of bids in a tender, with machine learning to predict the probability of collusion. As a methodological innovation, we calculate such screens for all possible subgroups of three or four bids within a tender and use summary statistics like the mean, median, maximum, and minimum of each screen as predictors in the machine learning algorithm. This approach tackles the issue that competitive bids in incomplete cartels distort the statistical signals produced by bid rigging. We demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms previously suggested methods in applications to incomplete cartels based on empirical data from Switzerland.

Washington – As COVID-19 tests become more widely available across the U.S., scientists have warned about a growing concern: Many people with negative results might actually have the virus. That could have devastating implications as a global recession looms and governments wrangle with the question of when to reopen economies shuttered with billions of people ordered to stay home in an effort to stop transmissions of the deadly disease. The majority of tests around the world use a technology called PCR, which detects pieces of the coronavirus in mucus samples. But "there are a lot of things that impact whether or not the test actually picks up the virus," said Priya Sampathkumar, an infectious diseases specialist at Mayo Clinic in Minnesota. "It depends on how much virus the person is shedding (through sneezing, coughing and other bodily functions), how the test was collected and whether it was done appropriately by someone used to collecting these swabs, and then how long it sat in transport," she said.

A popular way to estimate the causal effect of a variable x on y from observational data is to use an instrumental variable (IV): a third variable z that affects y only through x. The more strongly z is associated with x, the more reliable the estimate is, but such strong IVs are difficult to find. Instead, practitioners combine more commonly available IV candidates---which are not necessarily strong, or even valid, IVs---into a single "summary" that is plugged into causal effect estimators in place of an IV. In genetic epidemiology, such approaches are known as allele scores. Allele scores require strong assumptions---independence and validity of all IV candidates---for the resulting estimate to be reliable. To relax these assumptions, we propose Ivy, a new method to combine IV candidates that can handle correlated and invalid IV candidates in a robust manner. Theoretically, we characterize this robustness, its limits, and its impact on the resulting causal estimates. Empirically, Ivy can correctly identify the directionality of known relationships and is robust against false discovery (median effect size <= 0.025) on three real-world datasets with no causal effects, while allele scores return more biased estimates (median effect size >= 0.118).

Real-world problems such as landmine detection require multiple sources of information to reduce the uncertainty of decision-making. A novel approach to solve these problems includes distributed systems, as presented in this work based on hardware and software multi-agent systems. To achieve a high rate of landmine detection, we evaluate the performance of a trained system over the distribution of samples between training and validation sets. Additionally, a general explanation of the data set is provided, presenting the samples gathered by a cooperative multi-agent system developed for detecting improvised explosive devices. The results show that input samples affect the performance of the output decisions, and a decision-making system can be less sensitive to sensor noise with intelligent systems obtained from a diverse and suitably organised training set.