Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of classification performance metrics, based on a probability model of the confusion matrix. Application of our approach to classifiers from the scientific literature and a classification competition shows that uncertainties can be surprisingly large and limit performance evaluation. In fact, some published classifiers are likely to be misleading. The application of our approach is simple and requires only the confusion matrix. It is agnostic of the underlying classifier. Our method can also be used for the estimation of sample sizes that achieve a desired precision of a performance metric.

Dependability assurance of systems embedding machine learning(ML) components---so called learning-enabled systems (LESs)---is a key step for their use in safety-critical applications. In emerging standardization and guidance efforts, there is a growing consensus in the value of using assurance cases for that purpose. This paper develops a quantitative notion of assurance that an LES is dependable, as a core component of its assurance case, also extending our prior work that applied to ML components. Specifically, we characterize LES assurance in the form of assurance measures: a probabilistic quantification of confidence that an LES possesses system-level properties associated with functional capabilities and dependability attributes. We illustrate the utility of assurance measures by application to a real world autonomous aviation system, also describing their role both in i) guiding high-level, runtime risk mitigation decisions and ii) as a core component of the associated dynamic assurance case.

There exist significant gaps in research about how to design efficient in-bed lying posture tracking systems. These gaps can be articulated through several research questions as follows. First, can we design a single-sensor, pervasive, and inexpensive system that can accurately detect lying postures? Second, what computational models are most effective in the accurate detection of lying postures? Finally, what physical configuration of the sensor system is most effective for lying posture tracking? To answer these important research questions, in this article, we propose a comprehensive approach to design a sensor system that uses a single accelerometer along with machine learning algorithms for in-bed lying posture classification. We design two categories of machine learning algorithms based on deep learning and traditional classification with handcrafted features to detect lying postures. We also investigate what wearing sites are most effective in accurate detection of lying postures. We extensively evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms on nine different body locations and four human lying postures using two datasets. Our results show that a system with a single accelerometer can be used with either deep learning or traditional classifiers to accurately detect lying postures. The best models in our approach achieve an F-Score that ranges from 95.2% to 97.8% with 0.03 to 0.05 coefficient of variation. The results also identify the thighs and chest as the most salient body sites for lying posture tracking. Our findings in this article suggest that because accelerometers are ubiquitous and inexpensive sensors, they can be a viable source of information for pervasive monitoring of in-bed postures.

We initiate the study of applications of machine learning to Seiberg duality, focusing on the case of quiver gauge theories, a problem also of interest in mathematics in the context of cluster algebras. Within the general theme of Seiberg duality, we define and explore a variety of interesting questions, broadly divided into the binary determination of whether a pair of theories picked from a series of duality classes are dual to each other, as well as the multi-class determination of the duality class to which a given theory belongs. We study how the performance of machine learning depends on several variables, including number of classes and mutation type (finite or infinite). In addition, we evaluate the relative advantages of Naive Bayes classifiers versus Convolutional Neural Networks. Finally, we also investigate how the results are affected by the inclusion of additional data, such as ranks of gauge/flavor groups and certain variables motivated by the existence of underlying Diophantine equations. In all questions considered, high accuracy and confidence can be achieved.

Feature selection can be a crucial factor in obtaining robust and accurate predictions. Online feature selection models, however, operate under considerable restrictions; they need to efficiently extract salient input features based on a bounded set of observations, while enabling robust and accurate predictions. In this work, we introduce FIRES, a novel framework for online feature selection. The proposed feature weighting mechanism leverages the importance information inherent in the parameters of a predictive model. By treating model parameters as random variables, we can penalize features with high uncertainty and thus generate more stable feature sets. Our framework is generic in that it leaves the choice of the underlying model to the user. Strikingly, experiments suggest that the model complexity has only a minor effect on the discriminative power and stability of the selected feature sets. In fact, using a simple linear model, FIRES obtains feature sets that compete with state-of-the-art methods, while dramatically reducing computation time. In addition, experiments show that the proposed framework is clearly superior in terms of feature selection stability.

Images with shared characteristics naturally form sets. For example, in a face verification benchmark, images of the same identity form sets. For generative models, the standard way of dealing with sets is to represent each as a one hot vector, and learn a conditional generative model $p(\mathbf{x}|\mathbf{y})$. This representation assumes that the number of sets is limited and known, such that the distribution over sets reduces to a simple multinomial distribution. In contrast, we study a more generic problem where the number of sets is large and unknown. We introduce Set Distribution Networks (SDNs), a novel framework that learns to autoencode and freely generate sets. We achieve this by jointly learning a set encoder, set discriminator, set generator, and set prior. We show that SDNs are able to reconstruct image sets that preserve salient attributes of the inputs in our benchmark datasets, and are also able to generate novel objects/identities. We examine the sets generated by SDN with a pre-trained 3D reconstruction network and a face verification network, respectively, as a novel way to evaluate the quality of generated sets of images.

Effective machine learning models can automatically learn useful information from a large quantity of data and provide decisions in a high accuracy. These models may, however, lead to unfair predictions in certain sense among the population groups of interest, where the grouping is based on such sensitive attributes as race and gender. Various fairness definitions, such as demographic parity and equalized odds, were proposed in prior art to ensure that decisions guided by the machine learning models are equitable. Unfortunately, the "fair" model trained with these fairness definitions is threshold sensitive, i.e., the condition of fairness may no longer hold true when tuning the decision threshold. This paper introduces the notion of threshold invariant fairness, which enforces equitable performances across different groups independent of the decision threshold. To achieve this goal, this paper proposes to equalize the risk distributions among the groups via two approximation methods. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology is effective to alleviate the threshold sensitivity in machine learning models designed to achieve fairness.

We propose a novel approach for a machine-learning-based detection of the type Ia supernovae using photometric information. Unlike other approaches, only real observation data is used during training. Despite being trained on a relatively small sample, the method shows good results on real data from the Open Supernovae Catalog. We also demonstrate that the quality of a model, trained on PLASTiCC simulated sample, significantly decreases evaluated on real objects.

Overfitting describes the phenomenon that a machine learning model fits the given data instead of learning the underlying distribution. Existing approaches are computationally expensive, require large amounts of labeled data, consider overfitting global phenomenon, and often compute a single measurement. Instead, we propose a local measurement around a small number of unlabeled test points to obtain features of overfitting. Our extensive evaluation shows that the measure can reflect the model's different fit of training and test data, identify changes of the fit during training, and even suggest different fit among classes. We further apply our method to verify if backdoors rely on overfitting, a common claim in security of deep learning. Instead, we find that backdoors rely on underfitting. Our findings also provide evidence that even unbackdoored neural networks contain patterns similar to backdoors that are reliably classified as one class.

Computers have been used to analyze and create music since they were first introduced in the 1950s and 1960s. Beginning in the late 1990s, the rise of the Internet and large scale platforms for music recommendation and retrieval have made music an increasingly prevalent domain of machine learning and artificial intelligence research. While still nascent, several different approaches have been employed to tackle what may broadly be referred to as "musical intelligence." This article provides a definition of musical intelligence, introduces a taxonomy of its constituent components, and surveys the wide range of AI methods that can be, and have been, brought to bear in its pursuit, with a particular emphasis on machine learning methods.