While the 10-year survival rate for localized prostate cancer patients is very good (>98%), side effects of treatment may limit quality of life significantly. Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a common burden associated with increasing age as well as prostate cancer treatment. Although many studies have investigated the factors affecting erectile dysfunction (ED) after prostate cancer treatment, only limited studies have investigated whether ED can be predicted before the start of treatment. The advent of machine learning (ML) based prediction tools in oncology offers a promising approach to improve accuracy of prediction and quality of care. Predicting ED may help aid shared decision making by making the advantages and disadvantages of certain treatments clear, so that a tailored treatment for an individual patient can be chosen. This study aimed to predict ED at 1-year and 2-year post-diagnosis based on patient demographics, clinical data and patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) measured at diagnosis.

The tremendous success of generative models in recent years raises the question whether they can also be used to perform classification. Generative models have been used as adversarially robust classifiers on simple datasets such as MNIST, but this robustness has not been observed on more complex datasets like CIFAR-10. Additionally, on natural image datasets, previous results have suggested a trade-off between the likelihood of the data and classification accuracy. In this work, we investigate score-based generative models as classifiers for natural images. We show that these models not only obtain competitive likelihood values but simultaneously achieve state-of-the-art classification accuracy for generative classifiers on CIFAR-10. Nevertheless, we find that these models are only slightly, if at all, more robust than discriminative baseline models on out-of-distribution tasks based on common image corruptions. Similarly and contrary to prior results, we find that score-based are prone to worst-case distribution shifts in the form of adversarial perturbations. Our work highlights that score-based generative models are closing the gap in classification accuracy compared to standard discriminative models. While they do not yet deliver on the promise of adversarial and out-of-domain robustness, they provide a different approach to classification that warrants further research.

An increasingly common use case for machine learning models is augmenting the abilities of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human or model are perfectly accurate, a key step in obtaining high performance is combining their individual predictions in a manner that leverages their relative strengths. In this work, we develop a set of algorithms that combine the probabilistic output of a model with the class-level output of a human. We show theoretically that the accuracy of our combination model is driven not only by the individual human and model accuracies, but also by the model's confidence. Empirical results on image classification with CIFAR-10 and a subset of ImageNet demonstrate that such human-model combinations consistently have higher accuracies than the model or human alone, and that the parameters of the combination method can be estimated effectively with as few as ten labeled datapoints.

Many organizations develop software systems using open source software (OSS), which is risky due to the high possibility of losing support. Contributors are critical for the survival of OSS projects, but very few new contributors remain with OSS projects to become long-time contributors (LTCs). Identification of factors that contribute to become an LTC can help OSS project owners utilize limited resources to retain new contributors. In this paper, we investigate whether we can effectively predict new contributors to OSS repositories becoming long time contributors based on repository and contributor meta-data collected from GitHub. We construct a dataset containing 70,899 observations from 888 most popular repositories with 56,766 contributors.

In Machine Learning Performance Metrics numbers have an important story to tell. They rely on you to give them a voice. Regardless of you are a non-technical person in sales, marketing or operations. Or whether you belong to a technical background such as data science, engineering or development. It is equally important for everyone to understand how performance metrics work for machine learning.

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is a psychiatric condition affecting nearly a quarter of the United States war veterans who return from war zones. Treatment for PTSD typically consists of a combination of in-session therapy and medication. However; patients often experience their most severe PTSD symptoms outside of therapy sessions. Mobile health applications may address this gap, but their effectiveness is limited by the current gap in continuous monitoring and detection capabilities enabling timely intervention. The goal of this article is to develop a novel method to detect hyperarousal events using physiological and activity-based machine learning algorithms. Physiological data including heart rate and body acceleration as well as self-reported hyperarousal events were collected using a tool developed for commercial off-the-shelf wearable devices from 99 United States veterans diagnosed with PTSD over several days. The data were used to develop four machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression and XGBoost. The XGBoost model had the best performance in detecting onset of PTSD symptoms with over 83% accuracy and an AUC of 0.70. Post-hoc SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) additive explanation analysis showed that algorithm predictions were correlated with average heart rate, minimum heart rate and average body acceleration. Findings show promise in detecting onset of PTSD symptoms which could be the basis for developing remote and continuous monitoring systems for PTSD. Such systems may address a vital gap in just-in-time interventions for PTSD self-management outside of scheduled clinical appointments.

We propose a novel combinatorial inference framework to conduct general uncertainty quantification in ranking problems. We consider the widely adopted Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, where each item is assigned a positive preference score that determines the Bernoulli distributions of pairwise comparisons' outcomes. Our proposed method aims to infer general ranking properties of the BTL model. The general ranking properties include the "local" properties such as if an item is preferred over another and the "global" properties such as if an item is among the top $K$-ranked items. We further generalize our inferential framework to multiple testing problems where we control the false discovery rate (FDR), and apply the method to infer the top-$K$ ranked items. We also derive the information-theoretic lower bound to justify the minimax optimality of the proposed method. We conduct extensive numerical studies using both synthetic and real datasets to back up our theory.

Supervised training of neural networks requires large, diverse and well annotated data sets. In the medical field, this is often difficult to achieve due to constraints in time, expert knowledge and prevalence of an event. Artificial data augmentation can help to prevent overfitting and improve the detection of rare events as well as overall performance. However, most augmentation techniques use purely spatial transformations, which are not sufficient for video data with temporal correlations. In this paper, we present a novel methodology for workflow augmentation and demonstrate its benefit for event recognition in cataract surgery. The proposed approach increases the frequency of event alternation by creating artificial videos. The original video is split into event segments and a workflow graph is extracted from the original annotations. Finally, the segments are assembled into new videos based on the workflow graph. Compared to the original videos, the frequency of event alternation in the augmented cataract surgery videos increased by 26%. Further, a 3% higher classification accuracy and a 7.8% higher precision was achieved compared to a state-of-the-art approach. Our approach is particularly helpful to increase the occurrence of rare but important events and can be applied to a large variety of use cases.

Chest X-Ray (CXR) is one of the most common diagnostic techniques used in everyday clinical practice all around the world. We hereby present a work which intends to investigate and analyse the use of Deep Learning (DL) techniques to extract information from such images and allow to classify them, trying to keep our methodology as general as possible and possibly also usable in a real world scenario without much effort, in the future. To move in this direction, we trained several beta-Variational Autoencoder (beta-VAE) models on the CheXpert dataset, one of the largest publicly available collection of labeled CXR images; from these models, latent features have been extracted and used to train other Machine Learning models, able to classify the original images from the features extracted by the beta-VAE. Lastly, tree-based models have been combined together in ensemblings to improve the results without the necessity of further training or models engineering. Expecting some drop in pure performance with the respect to state of the art classification specific models, we obtained encouraging results, which show the viability of our approach and the usability of the high level features extracted by the autoencoders for classification tasks.

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease characterized by relapsing inflammation of the large intestine. The severity of UC is often represented by the Mayo Endoscopic Subscore (MES) which quantifies mucosal disease activity from endoscopy videos. In clinical trials, an endoscopy video is assigned an MES based upon the most severe disease activity observed in the video. For this reason, severe inflammation spread throughout the colon will receive the same MES as an otherwise healthy colon with severe inflammation restricted to a small, localized segment. Therefore, the extent of disease activity throughout the large intestine, and overall response to treatment, may not be completely captured by the MES. In this work, we aim to automatically estimate UC severity for each frame in an endoscopy video to provide a higher resolution assessment of disease activity throughout the colon. Because annotating severity at the frame-level is expensive, labor-intensive, and highly subjective, we propose a novel weakly supervised, ordinal classification method to estimate frame severity from video MES labels alone. Using clinical trial data, we first achieved 0.92 and 0.90 AUC for predicting mucosal healing and remission of UC, respectively. Then, for severity estimation, we demonstrate that our models achieve substantial Cohen's Kappa agreement with ground truth MES labels, comparable to the inter-rater agreement of expert clinicians. These findings indicate that our framework could serve as a foundation for novel clinical endpoints, based on a more localized scoring system, to better evaluate UC drug efficacy in clinical trials.