Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection plays a crucial role in ensuring the safe deployment of deep neural network (DNN) classifiers. While a myriad of methods have focused on improving the performance of OOD detectors, a critical gap remains in interpreting their decisions. We help bridge this gap by providing explanations for OOD detectors based on learned high-level concepts. We first propose two new metrics for assessing the effectiveness of a particular set of concepts for explaining OOD detectors: 1) detection completeness, which quantifies the sufficiency of concepts for explaining an OOD-detector's decisions, and 2) concept separability, which captures the distributional separation between in-distribution and OOD data in the concept space. Based on these metrics, we propose an unsupervised framework for learning a set of concepts that satisfy the desired properties of high detection completeness and concept separability, and demonstrate its effectiveness in providing concept-based explanations for diverse off-the-shelf OOD detectors. We also show how to identify prominent concepts contributing to the detection results, and provide further reasoning about their decisions.

We examine machine learning models in a setup where individuals have the choice to share optional personal information with a decision-making system, as seen in modern insurance pricing models. Some users consent to their data being used whereas others object and keep their data undisclosed. In this work, we show that the decision not to share data can be considered as information in itself that should be protected to respect users' privacy. This observation raises the overlooked problem of how to ensure that users who protect their personal data do not suffer any disadvantages as a result. To address this problem, we formalize protection requirements for models which only use the information for which active user consent was obtained. This excludes implicit information contained in the decision to share data or not. We offer the first solution to this problem by proposing the notion of Protected User Consent (PUC), which we prove to be loss-optimal under our protection requirement. To learn PUC-compliant models, we devise a model-agnostic data augmentation strategy with finite sample convergence guarantees. Finally, we analyze the implications of PUC on a variety of challenging real-world datasets, tasks, and models.

One of the ultimate goals of Artificial Intelligence is to assist humans in complex decision making. A promising direction for achieving this goal is Neuro-Symbolic AI, which aims to combine the interpretability of symbolic techniques with the ability of deep learning to learn from raw data. However, most current approaches require manually engineered symbolic knowledge, and where end-to-end training is considered, such approaches are either restricted to learning definite programs, or are restricted to training binary neural networks. In this paper, we introduce Neuro-Symbolic Inductive Learner (NSIL), an approach that trains a general neural network to extract latent concepts from raw data, whilst learning symbolic knowledge that maps latent concepts to target labels. The novelty of our approach is a method for biasing the learning of symbolic knowledge, based on the in-training performance of both neural and symbolic components. We evaluate NSIL on three problem domains of different complexity, including an NP-complete problem. Our results demonstrate that NSIL learns expressive knowledge, solves computationally complex problems, and achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of accuracy and data efficiency. Code and technical appendix: https://github.com/DanCunnington/NSIL

Most state-of-the-art self-supervised speaker verification systems rely on a contrastive-based objective function to learn speaker representations from unlabeled speech data. We explore different ways to improve the performance of these methods by: (1) revisiting how positive and negative pairs are sampled through a "symmetric" formulation of the contrastive loss; (2) introducing margins similar to AM-Softmax and AAM-Softmax that have been widely adopted in the supervised setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the symmetric contrastive loss which provides more supervision for the self-supervised task. Moreover, we show that Additive Margin and Additive Angular Margin allow reducing the overall number of false negatives and false positives by improving speaker separability. Finally, by combining both techniques and training a larger model we achieve 7.50% EER and 0.5804 minDCF on the VoxCeleb1 test set, which outperforms other contrastive self supervised methods on speaker verification.

Random Forests are powerful ensemble learning algorithms widely used in various machine learning tasks. However, they have a tendency to overfit noisy or irrelevant features, which can result in decreased generalization performance. Post-hoc regularization techniques aim to mitigate this issue by modifying the structure of the learned ensemble after its training. Here, we propose Bayesian post-hoc regularization to leverage the reliable patterns captured by leaf nodes closer to the root, while potentially reducing the impact of more specific and potentially noisy leaf nodes deeper in the tree. This approach allows for a form of pruning that does not alter the general structure of the trees but rather adjusts the influence of leaf nodes based on their proximity to the root node. We have evaluated the performance of our method on various machine learning data sets. Our approach demonstrates competitive performance with the state-of-the-art methods and, in certain cases, surpasses them in terms of predictive accuracy and generalization.

Machine learning has attracted widespread attention and evolved into an enabling technology for a wide range of highly successful applications, such as intelligent computer vision, speech recognition, medical diagnosis, and more. Yet a special need has arisen where, due to privacy, usability, and/or the right to be forgotten, information about some specific samples needs to be removed from a model, called machine unlearning. This emerging technology has drawn significant interest from both academics and industry due to its innovation and practicality. At the same time, this ambitious problem has led to numerous research efforts aimed at confronting its challenges. To the best of our knowledge, no study has analyzed this complex topic or compared the feasibility of existing unlearning solutions in different kinds of scenarios. Accordingly, with this survey, we aim to capture the key concepts of unlearning techniques. The existing solutions are classified and summarized based on their characteristics within an up-to-date and comprehensive review of each category's advantages and limitations. The survey concludes by highlighting some of the outstanding issues with unlearning techniques, along with some feasible directions for new research opportunities.

Machine Learning-as-a-Service (MLaaS) has become a widespread paradigm, making even the most complex machine learning models available for clients via e.g. a pay-per-query principle. This allows users to avoid time-consuming processes of data collection, hyperparameter tuning, and model training. However, by giving their customers access to the (predictions of their) models, MLaaS providers endanger their intellectual property, such as sensitive training data, optimised hyperparameters, or learned model parameters. Adversaries can create a copy of the model with (almost) identical behavior using the the prediction labels only. While many variants of this attack have been described, only scattered defence strategies have been proposed, addressing isolated threats. This raises the necessity for a thorough systematisation of the field of model stealing, to arrive at a comprehensive understanding why these attacks are successful, and how they could be holistically defended against. We address this by categorising and comparing model stealing attacks, assessing their performance, and exploring corresponding defence techniques in different settings. We propose a taxonomy for attack and defence approaches, and provide guidelines on how to select the right attack or defence strategy based on the goal and available resources. Finally, we analyse which defences are rendered less effective by current attack strategies.

Automatic assessment of reading fluency using automatic speech recognition (ASR) holds great potential for early detection of reading difficulties and subsequent timely intervention. Precise assessment tools are required, especially for languages other than English. In this study, we evaluate six state-of-the-art ASR-based systems for automatically assessing Dutch oral reading accuracy using Kaldi and Whisper. Results show our most successful system reached substantial agreement with human evaluations (MCC = .63). The same system reached the highest correlation between forced decoding confidence scores and word correctness (r = .45). This system's language model (LM) consisted of manual orthographic transcriptions and reading prompts of the test data, which shows that including reading errors in the LM improves assessment performance. We discuss the implications for developing automatic assessment systems and identify possible avenues of future research.

The present-day Russia-Ukraine military conflict has exposed the pivotal role of social media in enabling the transparent and unbridled sharing of information directly from the frontlines. In conflict zones where freedom of expression is constrained and information warfare is pervasive, social media has emerged as an indispensable lifeline. Anonymous social media platforms, as publicly available sources for disseminating war-related information, have the potential to serve as effective instruments for monitoring and documenting Human Rights Violations (HRV). Our research focuses on the analysis of data from Telegram, the leading social media platform for reading independent news in post-Soviet regions. We gathered a dataset of posts sampled from 95 public Telegram channels that cover politics and war news, which we have utilized to identify potential occurrences of HRV. Employing a mBERT-based text classifier, we have conducted an analysis to detect any mentions of HRV in the Telegram data. Our final approach yielded an $F_2$ score of 0.71 for HRV detection, representing an improvement of 0.38 over the multilingual BERT base model. We release two datasets that contains Telegram posts: (1) large corpus with over 2.3 millions posts and (2) annotated at the sentence-level dataset to indicate HRVs. The Telegram posts are in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. We posit that our findings hold significant implications for NGOs, governments, and researchers by providing a means to detect and document possible human rights violations.