Early diagnosis of mental disorders and intervention can facilitate the prevention of severe injuries and the improvement of treatment results. Using social media and pre-trained language models, this study explores how user-generated data can be used to predict mental disorder symptoms. Our study compares four different BERT models of Hugging Face with standard machine learning techniques used in automatic depression diagnosis in recent literature. The results show that new models outperform the previous approach with an accuracy rate of up to 97%. Analyzing the results while complementing past findings, we find that even tiny amounts of data (Like users' bio descriptions) have the potential to predict mental disorders. We conclude that social media data is an excellent source of mental health screening, and pre-trained models can effectively automate this critical task.

As LLMs become commonplace, machine-generated text has the potential to flood the internet with spam, social media bots, and valueless content. Watermarking is a simple and effective strategy for mitigating such harms by enabling the detection and documentation of LLM-generated text. Yet a crucial question remains: How reliable is watermarking in realistic settings in the wild? There, watermarked text may be modified to suit a user's needs, or entirely rewritten to avoid detection. We study the robustness of watermarked text after it is re-written by humans, paraphrased by a non-watermarked LLM, or mixed into a longer hand-written document. We find that watermarks remain detectable even after human and machine paraphrasing. While these attacks dilute the strength of the watermark, paraphrases are statistically likely to leak n-grams or even longer fragments of the original text, resulting in high-confidence detections when enough tokens are observed. For example, after strong human paraphrasing the watermark is detectable after observing 800 tokens on average, when setting a 1e 5 false positive rate. We also consider a range of new detection schemes that are sensitive to short spans of watermarked text embedded inside a large document, and we compare the robustness of watermarking to other kinds of detectors.

Machine learning risks reinforcing biases present in data, and, as we argue in this work, in what is absent from data. In healthcare, biases have marked medical history, leading to unequal care affecting marginalised groups. Patterns in missing data often reflect these group discrepancies, but the algorithmic fairness implications of group-specific missingness are not well understood. Despite its potential impact, imputation is often an overlooked preprocessing step, with attention placed on the reduction of reconstruction error and overall performance, ignoring how imputation can affect groups differently. Our work studies how imputation choices affect reconstruction errors across groups and algorithmic fairness properties of downstream predictions.

For neurological disorders and diseases, functional and anatomical connectomes of the human brain can be used to better inform targeted interventions and treatment strategies. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive neuroimaging technique that captures spatio-temporal brain function through blood flow over time. FMRI can be used to study the functional connectome through the functional connectivity matrix; that is, Pearson's correlation matrix between time series from the regions of interest of an fMRI image. One approach to analysing functional connectivity is using partial least squares (PLS), a multivariate regression technique designed for high-dimensional predictor data. However, analysing functional connectivity with PLS ignores a key property of the functional connectivity matrix; namely, these matrices are positive definite. To account for this, we introduce a generalisation of PLS to Riemannian manifolds, called R-PLS, and apply it to symmetric positive definite matrices with the affine invariant geometry. We apply R-PLS to two functional imaging datasets: COBRE, which investigates functional differences between schizophrenic patients and healthy controls, and; ABIDE, which compares people with autism spectrum disorder and neurotypical controls. Using the variable importance in the projection statistic on the results of R-PLS, we identify key functional connections in each dataset that are well represented in the literature. Given the generality of R-PLS, this method has potential to open up new avenues for multi-model imaging analysis linking structural and functional connectomics.

Feature transformation aims to reconstruct an effective representation space by mathematically refining the existing features. It serves as a pivotal approach to combat the curse of dimensionality, enhance model generalization, mitigate data sparsity, and extend the applicability of classical models. Existing research predominantly focuses on domain knowledge-based feature engineering or learning latent representations. However, these methods, while insightful, lack full automation and fail to yield a traceable and optimal representation space. An indispensable question arises: Can we concurrently address these limitations when reconstructing a feature space for a machine-learning task? Our initial work took a pioneering step towards this challenge by introducing a novel self-optimizing framework. This framework leverages the power of three cascading reinforced agents to automatically select candidate features and operations for generating improved feature transformation combinations. Despite the impressive strides made, there was room for enhancing its effectiveness and generalization capability. In this extended journal version, we advance our initial work from two distinct yet interconnected perspectives: 1) We propose a refinement of the original framework, which integrates a graph-based state representation method to capture the feature interactions more effectively and develop different Q-learning strategies to alleviate Q-value overestimation further. 2) We utilize a new optimization technique (actor-critic) to train the entire self-optimizing framework in order to accelerate the model convergence and improve the feature transformation performance. Finally, to validate the improved effectiveness and generalization capability of our framework, we perform extensive experiments and conduct comprehensive analyses.

Physicians considering clinical trials for their patients are met with the laborious process of checking many text based eligibility criteria. Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown to perform well for clinical information extraction and clinical reasoning, including medical tests, but not yet in real-world scenarios. This paper investigates the use of InstructGPT to assist physicians in determining eligibility for clinical trials based on a patient's summarised medical profile. Using a prompting strategy combining one-shot, selection-inference and chain-of-thought techniques, we investigate the performance of LLMs on 10 synthetically created patient profiles. Performance is evaluated at four levels: ability to identify screenable eligibility criteria from a trial given a medical profile; ability to classify for each individual criterion whether the patient qualifies; the overall classification whether a patient is eligible for a clinical trial and the percentage of criteria to be screened by physician. We evaluated against 146 clinical trials and a total of 4,135 eligibility criteria. The LLM was able to correctly identify the screenability of 72% (2,994/4,135) of the criteria. Additionally, 72% (341/471) of the screenable criteria were evaluated correctly. The resulting trial level classification as eligible or ineligible resulted in a recall of 0.5. By leveraging LLMs with a physician-in-the-loop, a recall of 1.0 and precision of 0.71 on clinical trial level can be achieved while reducing the amount of criteria to be checked by an estimated 90%. LLMs can be used to assist physicians with pre-screening of patients for clinical trials. By forcing instruction-tuned LLMs to produce chain-of-thought responses, the reasoning can be made transparent to and the decision process becomes amenable by physicians, thereby making such a system feasible for use in real-world scenarios.

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that optimising the predictive model for calibration leads to greater returns than optimising for accuracy, on average (return on investment of $+34.69\%$ versus $-35.17\%$) and in the best case ($+36.93\%$ versus $+5.56\%$). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore optimise their predictive model for calibration.

There is a longstanding interest in capturing the error behaviour of object detectors by finding images where their performance is likely to be unsatisfactory. In real-world applications such as autonomous driving, it is also crucial to characterise potential failures beyond simple requirements of detection performance. For example, a missed detection of a pedestrian close to an ego vehicle will generally require closer inspection than a missed detection of a car in the distance. The problem of predicting such potential failures at test time has largely been overlooked in the literature and conventional approaches based on detection uncertainty fall short in that they are agnostic to such fine-grained characterisation of errors. In this work, we propose to reformulate the problem of finding "hard" images as a query-based hard image retrieval task, where queries are specific definitions of "hardness", and offer a simple and intuitive method that can solve this task for a large family of queries. Our method is entirely post-hoc, does not require ground-truth annotations, is independent of the choice of a detector, and relies on an efficient Monte Carlo estimation that uses a simple stochastic model in place of the ground-truth. We show experimentally that it can be applied successfully to a wide variety of queries for which it can reliably identify hard images for a given detector without any labelled data. We provide results on ranking and classification tasks using the widely used RetinaNet, Faster-RCNN, Mask-RCNN, and Cascade Mask-RCNN object detectors. The code for this project is available at https://github.com/fiveai/hardest.

As machine learning (ML) based systems are adopted in domains such as law enforcement, criminal justice, finance, hiring and admissions, ensuring the fairness of ML aided decision-making is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, we focus on the problem of fair classification, and introduce a novel min-max F-divergence regularization framework for learning fair classification models while preserving high accuracy. Our framework consists of two trainable networks, namely, a classifier network and a bias/fairness estimator network, where the fairness is measured using the statistical notion of F-divergence. We show that F-divergence measures possess convexity and differentiability properties, and their variational representation make them widely applicable in practical gradient based training methods. The proposed framework can be readily adapted to multiple sensitive attributes and for high dimensional datasets. We study the F-divergence based training paradigm for two types of group fairness constraints, namely, demographic parity and equalized odds. We present a comprehensive set of experiments for several real-world data sets arising in multiple domains (including COMPAS, Law Admissions, Adult Income, and CelebA datasets). To quantify the fairness-accuracy tradeoff, we introduce the notion of fairness-accuracy receiver operating characteristic (FA-ROC) and a corresponding \textit{low-bias} FA-ROC, which we argue is an appropriate measure to evaluate different classifiers. In comparison to several existing approaches for learning fair classifiers (including pre-processing, post-processing and other regularization methods), we show that the proposed F-divergence based framework achieves state-of-the-art performance with respect to the trade-off between accuracy and fairness.

Despite the popularity and success of deep learning, there is limited understanding of when, how, and why neural networks generalize to unseen examples. Since learning can be seen as extracting information from data, we formally study information captured by neural networks during training. Specifically, we start with viewing learning in presence of noisy labels from an information-theoretic perspective and derive a learning algorithm that limits label noise information in weights. We then define a notion of unique information that an individual sample provides to the training of a deep network, shedding some light on the behavior of neural networks on examples that are atypical, ambiguous, or belong to underrepresented subpopulations. We relate example informativeness to generalization by deriving nonvacuous generalization gap bounds. Finally, by studying knowledge distillation, we highlight the important role of data and label complexity in generalization. Overall, our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying neural network generalization.