Performance Analysis
Prediction without Preclusion: Recourse Verification with Reachable Sets
Kothari, Avni, Kulynych, Bogdan, Weng, Tsui-Wei, Ustun, Berk
Machine learning models are often used to decide who will receive a loan, a job interview, or a public benefit. Standard techniques to build these models use features about people but overlook their actionability. In turn, models can assign predictions that are fixed, meaning that consumers who are denied loans, interviews, or benefits may be permanently locked out from access to credit, employment, or assistance. In this work, we introduce a formal testing procedure to flag models that assign fixed predictions that we call recourse verification. We develop machinery to reliably determine if a given model can provide recourse to its decision subjects from a set of user-specified actionability constraints. We demonstrate how our tools can ensure recourse and adversarial robustness in real-world datasets and use them to study the infeasibility of recourse in real-world lending datasets. Our results highlight how models can inadvertently assign fixed predictions that permanently bar access, and we provide tools to design algorithms that account for actionability when developing models.
Single-shot Bayesian approximation for neural networks
Brach, Kai, Sick, Beate, Dürr, Oliver
Deep neural networks (NNs) are known for their high-prediction performances. However, NNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of NNs (BNNs), such as Monte Carlo (MC) dropout BNNs, do provide uncertainty measures and simultaneously increase the prediction performance. The only disadvantage of BNNs is their higher computation time during test time because they rely on a sampling approach. Here we present a single-shot MC dropout approximation that preserves the advantages of BNNs while being as fast as NNs. Our approach is based on moment propagation (MP) and allows to analytically approximate the expected value and the variance of the MC dropout signal for commonly used layers in NNs, i.e. convolution, max pooling, dense, softmax, and dropout layers. The MP approach can convert an NN into a BNN without re-training given the NN has been trained with standard dropout. We evaluate our approach on different benchmark datasets and a simulated toy example in a classification and regression setting. We demonstrate that our single-shot MC dropout approximation resembles the point estimate and the uncertainty estimate of the predictive distribution that is achieved with an MC approach, while being fast enough for real-time deployments of BNNs. We show that using part of the saved time to combine our MP approach with deep ensemble techniques does further improve the uncertainty measures.
On Offline Evaluation of 3D Object Detection for Autonomous Driving
Schreier, Tim, Renz, Katrin, Geiger, Andreas, Chitta, Kashyap
Prior work in 3D object detection evaluates models using offline metrics like average precision since closed-loop online evaluation on the downstream driving task is costly. However, it is unclear how indicative offline results are of driving performance. In this work, we perform the first empirical evaluation measuring how predictive different detection metrics are of driving performance when detectors are integrated into a full self-driving stack. We conduct extensive experiments on urban driving in the CARLA simulator using 16 object detection models. We find that the nuScenes Detection Score has a higher correlation to driving performance than the widely used average precision metric. In addition, our results call for caution on the exclusive reliance on the emerging class of `planner-centric' metrics.
LORD: Leveraging Open-Set Recognition with Unknown Data
Koch, Tobias, Riess, Christian, Köhler, Thomas
Handling entirely unknown data is a challenge for any deployed classifier. Classification models are typically trained on a static pre-defined dataset and are kept in the dark for the open unassigned feature space. As a result, they struggle to deal with out-of-distribution data during inference. Addressing this task on the class-level is termed open-set recognition (OSR). However, most OSR methods are inherently limited, as they train closed-set classifiers and only adapt the downstream predictions to OSR. This work presents LORD, a framework to Leverage Open-set Recognition by exploiting unknown Data. LORD explicitly models open space during classifier training and provides a systematic evaluation for such approaches. We identify three model-agnostic training strategies that exploit background data and applied them to well-established classifiers. Due to LORD's extensive evaluation protocol, we consistently demonstrate improved recognition of unknown data. The benchmarks facilitate in-depth analysis across various requirement levels. To mitigate dependency on extensive and costly background datasets, we explore mixup as an off-the-shelf data generation technique. Our experiments highlight mixup's effectiveness as a substitute for background datasets. Lightweight constraints on mixup synthesis further improve OSR performance.
Rapid building damage assessment workflow: An implementation for the 2023 Rolling Fork, Mississippi tornado event
Robinson, Caleb, Nsutezo, Simone Fobi, Ortiz, Anthony, Sederholm, Tina, Dodhia, Rahul, Birge, Cameron, Richards, Kasie, Pitcher, Kris, Duarte, Paulo, Ferres, Juan M. Lavista
Rapid and accurate building damage assessments from high-resolution satellite imagery following a natural disaster is essential to inform and optimize first responder efforts. However, performing such building damage assessments in an automated manner is non-trivial due to the challenges posed by variations in disaster-specific damage, diversity in satellite imagery, and the dearth of extensive, labeled datasets. To circumvent these issues, this paper introduces a human-in-the-loop workflow for rapidly training building damage assessment models after a natural disaster. This article details a case study using this workflow, executed in partnership with the American Red Cross during a tornado event in Rolling Fork, Mississippi in March, 2023. The output from our human-in-the-loop modeling process achieved a precision of 0.86 and recall of 0.80 for damaged buildings when compared to ground truth data collected post-disaster. This workflow was implemented end-to-end in under 2 hours per satellite imagery scene, highlighting its potential for real-time deployment.
Coarse race data conceals disparities in clinical risk score performance
Movva, Rajiv, Shanmugam, Divya, Hou, Kaihua, Pathak, Priya, Guttag, John, Garg, Nikhil, Pierson, Emma
Healthcare data in the United States often records only a patient's coarse race group: for example, both Indian and Chinese patients are typically coded as "Asian." It is unknown, however, whether this coarse coding conceals meaningful disparities in the performance of clinical risk scores across granular race groups. Here we show that it does. Using data from 418K emergency department visits, we assess clinical risk score performance disparities across 26 granular groups for three outcomes, five risk scores, and four performance metrics. Across outcomes and metrics, we show that the risk scores exhibit significant granular performance disparities within coarse race groups. In fact, variation in performance within coarse groups often *exceeds* the variation between coarse groups. We explore why these disparities arise, finding that outcome rates, feature distributions, and the relationships between features and outcomes all vary significantly across granular groups. Our results suggest that healthcare providers, hospital systems, and machine learning researchers should strive to collect, release, and use granular race data in place of coarse race data, and that existing analyses may significantly underestimate racial disparities in performance.
Robust Design and Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms under Unobserved Confounding
Rambachan, Ashesh, Coston, Amanda, Kennedy, Edward
Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings where the outcome is selectively observed given some choices made by human decision makers. There often exists unobserved confounders that affected the decision maker's choice and the outcome. We propose a unified methodology for the robust design and evaluation of predictive algorithms in selectively observed data under such unobserved confounding. Our approach imposes general assumptions on how much the outcome may vary on average between unselected and selected units conditional on observed covariates and identified nuisance parameters, formalizing popular empirical strategies for imputing missing data such as proxy outcomes and instrumental variables. We develop debiased machine learning estimators for the bounds on a large class of predictive performance estimands, such as the conditional likelihood of the outcome, a predictive algorithm's mean square error, true/false positive rate, and many others, under these assumptions. In an administrative dataset from a large Australian financial institution, we illustrate how varying assumptions on unobserved confounding leads to meaningful changes in default risk predictions and evaluations of credit scores across sensitive groups.
DexBERT: Effective, Task-Agnostic and Fine-grained Representation Learning of Android Bytecode
Sun, Tiezhu, Allix, Kevin, Kim, Kisub, Zhou, Xin, Kim, Dongsun, Lo, David, Bissyandé, Tegawendé F., Klein, Jacques
The automation of a large number of software engineering tasks is becoming possible thanks to Machine Learning (ML). Central to applying ML to software artifacts (like source or executable code) is converting them into forms suitable for learning. Traditionally, researchers have relied on manually selected features, based on expert knowledge which is sometimes imprecise and generally incomplete. Representation learning has allowed ML to automatically choose suitable representations and relevant features. Yet, for Android-related tasks, existing models like apk2vec focus on whole-app levels, or target specific tasks like smali2vec, which limits their applicability. Our work is part of a new line of research that investigates effective, task-agnostic, and fine-grained universal representations of bytecode to mitigate both of these two limitations. Such representations aim to capture information relevant to various low-level downstream tasks (e.g., at the class-level). We are inspired by the field of Natural Language Processing, where the problem of universal representation was addressed by building Universal Language Models, such as BERT, whose goal is to capture abstract semantic information about sentences, in a way that is reusable for a variety of tasks. We propose DexBERT, a BERT-like Language Model dedicated to representing chunks of DEX bytecode, the main binary format used in Android applications. We empirically assess whether DexBERT is able to model the DEX language and evaluate the suitability of our model in three distinct class-level software engineering tasks: Malicious Code Localization, Defect Prediction, and Component Type Classification. We also experiment with strategies to deal with the problem of catering to apps having vastly different sizes, and we demonstrate one example of using our technique to investigate what information is relevant to a given task.
FIESTA: Autoencoders for accurate fiber segmentation in tractography
Dumais, Félix, Legarreta, Jon Haitz, Lemaire, Carl, Poulin, Philippe, Rheault, François, Petit, Laurent, Barakovic, Muhamed, Magon, Stefano, Descoteaux, Maxime, Jodoin, Pierre-Marc
White matter bundle segmentation is a cornerstone of modern tractography to study the brain's structural connectivity in domains such as neurological disorders, neurosurgery, and aging. In this study, we present FIESTA (FIbEr Segmentation in Tractography using Autoencoders), a reliable and robust, fully automated, and easily semi-automatically calibrated pipeline based on deep autoencoders that can dissect and fully populate white matter bundles. This pipeline is built upon previous works that demonstrated how autoencoders can be used successfully for streamline filtering, bundle segmentation, and streamline generation in tractography. Our proposed method improves bundle segmentation coverage by recovering hard-to-track bundles with generative sampling through the latent space seeding of the subject bundle and the atlas bundle. A latent space of streamlines is learned using autoencoder-based modeling combined with contrastive learning. Using an atlas of bundles in standard space (MNI), our proposed method segments new tractograms using the autoencoder latent distance between each tractogram streamline and its closest neighbor bundle in the atlas of bundles. Intra-subject bundle reliability is improved by recovering hard-to-track streamlines, using the autoencoder to generate new streamlines that increase the spatial coverage of each bundle while remaining anatomically correct. Results show that our method is more reliable than state-of-the-art automated virtual dissection methods such as RecoBundles, RecoBundlesX, TractSeg, White Matter Analysis and XTRACT. Our framework allows for the transition from one anatomical bundle definition to another with marginal calibration efforts. Overall, these results show that our framework improves the practicality and usability of current state-of-the-art bundle segmentation framework.
Toward American Sign Language Processing in the Real World: Data, Tasks, and Methods
Sign language, which conveys meaning through gestures, is the chief means of communication among deaf people. Recognizing sign language in natural settings presents significant challenges due to factors such as lighting, background clutter, and variations in signer characteristics. In this thesis, I study automatic sign language processing in the wild, using signing videos collected from the Internet. This thesis contributes new datasets, tasks, and methods. Most chapters of this thesis address tasks related to fingerspelling, an important component of sign language and yet has not been studied widely by prior work. I present three new large-scale ASL datasets in the wild: ChicagoFSWild, ChicagoFSWild+, and OpenASL. Using ChicagoFSWild and ChicagoFSWild+, I address fingerspelling recognition, which consists of transcribing fingerspelling sequences into text. I propose an end-to-end approach based on iterative attention that allows recognition from a raw video without explicit hand detection. I further show that using a Conformer-based network jointly modeling handshape and mouthing can bring performance close to that of humans. Next, I propose two tasks for building real-world fingerspelling-based applications: fingerspelling detection and search. For fingerspelling detection, I introduce a suite of evaluation metrics and a new detection model via multi-task training. To address the problem of searching for fingerspelled keywords in raw sign language videos, we propose a novel method that jointly localizes and matches fingerspelling segments to text. Finally, I will describe a benchmark for large-vocabulary open-domain sign language translation based on OpenASL. To address the challenges of sign language translation in realistic settings, we propose a set of techniques including sign search as a pretext task for pre-training and fusion of mouthing and handshape features.