There are growing implications surrounding generative AI in the speech domain that enable voice cloning and real-time voice conversion from one individual to another. This technology poses a significant ethical threat and could lead to breaches of privacy and misrepresentation, thus there is an urgent need for real-time detection of AI-generated speech for DeepFake Voice Conversion. To address the above emerging issues, the DEEP-VOICE dataset is generated in this study, comprised of real human speech from eight well-known figures and their speech converted to one another using Retrieval-based Voice Conversion. Presenting as a binary classification problem of whether the speech is real or AI-generated, statistical analysis of temporal audio features through t-testing reveals that there are significantly different distributions. Hyperparameter optimisation is implemented for machine learning models to identify the source of speech. Following the training of 208 individual machine learning models over 10-fold cross validation, it is found that the Extreme Gradient Boosting model can achieve an average classification accuracy of 99.3% and can classify speech in real-time, at around 0.004 milliseconds given one second of speech. All data generated for this study is released publicly for future research on AI speech detection.

Vision-language models (VLMs) [Radford et al., 2021, Li et al., 2022a, Jia et al., 2021, Li et al., 2022c] pre-trained on web-scale image-text pairs have exhibited robust zero-shot prediction capabilities, which have recently attracted increasing attention from the research community. As an example, Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) [Radford et al., 2021] leverages a contrastive objective to obtain a modality-agnostic embedding space in which the paired images and texts are pulled closer and unpaired images and texts are pushed apart. Subsequently, CLIP can perform zero-shot visual prediction by matching the embeddings of test images and prompt-based textual descriptions (e.g., "a photo of a [CLASS]" and "this is a picture of a [CLASS]"), merely requiring the names of all the semantic classes in downstream tasks. Apart from the extensive research dedicated to the pre-training stage, numerous studies [Zhou et al., 2022b, Zhang et al., 2022b, Bahng et al., 2022] have concentrated on adapting VLMs to specific downstream tasks by using task-specific labeled data. This fine-tuning paradigm empowers VLMs to bridge both data and task gaps, leading to improved performance in recognition tasks. In addition to multi-class classification, these pioneering strategies have also been harnessed in a spectrum of computer vision tasks, including ordinal regression [Li et al., 2022b], point cloud understanding [Zhang et al., 2022a], and dense prediction [Rao et al., 2022]. When considering fine-tuning setups, most efforts have primarily revolved around fully supervised and few-shot supervised learning scenarios. To pursue annotation efficiency and scalability, several recent studies [Huang et al., 2022, Shu et al., 2022, Tanwisuth et al., 2023] have delved into the realm of unsupervised fine-tuning for VLMs, remarkably achieving performance on par with few-shot supervised

Passive acoustic monitoring can be an effective way of monitoring wildlife populations that are acoustically active but difficult to survey visually. Digital recorders allow surveyors to gather large volumes of data at low cost, but identifying target species vocalisations in these data is non-trivial. Machine learning (ML) methods are often used to do the identification. They can process large volumes of data quickly, but they do not detect all vocalisations and they do generate some false positives (vocalisations that are not from the target species). Existing wildlife abundance survey methods have been designed specifically to deal with the first of these mistakes, but current methods of dealing with false positives are not well-developed. They do not take account of features of individual vocalisations, some of which are more likely to be false positives than others. We propose three methods for acoustic spatial capture-recapture inference that integrate individual-level measures of confidence from ML vocalisation identification into the likelihood and hence integrate ML uncertainty into inference. The methods include a mixture model in which species identity is a latent variable. We test the methods by simulation and find that in a scenario based on acoustic data from Hainan gibbons, in which ignoring false positives results in 17% positive bias, our methods give negligible bias and coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal 95% level.

Machine learning models are often used to decide who will receive a loan, a job interview, or a public benefit. Standard techniques to build these models use features about people but overlook their actionability. In turn, models can assign predictions that are fixed, meaning that consumers who are denied loans, interviews, or benefits may be permanently locked out from access to credit, employment, or assistance. In this work, we introduce a formal testing procedure to flag models that assign fixed predictions that we call recourse verification. We develop machinery to reliably determine if a given model can provide recourse to its decision subjects from a set of user-specified actionability constraints. We demonstrate how our tools can ensure recourse and adversarial robustness in real-world datasets and use them to study the infeasibility of recourse in real-world lending datasets. Our results highlight how models can inadvertently assign fixed predictions that permanently bar access, and we provide tools to design algorithms that account for actionability when developing models.

Deep neural networks (NNs) are known for their high-prediction performances. However, NNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of NNs (BNNs), such as Monte Carlo (MC) dropout BNNs, do provide uncertainty measures and simultaneously increase the prediction performance. The only disadvantage of BNNs is their higher computation time during test time because they rely on a sampling approach. Here we present a single-shot MC dropout approximation that preserves the advantages of BNNs while being as fast as NNs. Our approach is based on moment propagation (MP) and allows to analytically approximate the expected value and the variance of the MC dropout signal for commonly used layers in NNs, i.e. convolution, max pooling, dense, softmax, and dropout layers. The MP approach can convert an NN into a BNN without re-training given the NN has been trained with standard dropout. We evaluate our approach on different benchmark datasets and a simulated toy example in a classification and regression setting. We demonstrate that our single-shot MC dropout approximation resembles the point estimate and the uncertainty estimate of the predictive distribution that is achieved with an MC approach, while being fast enough for real-time deployments of BNNs. We show that using part of the saved time to combine our MP approach with deep ensemble techniques does further improve the uncertainty measures.

Prior work in 3D object detection evaluates models using offline metrics like average precision since closed-loop online evaluation on the downstream driving task is costly. However, it is unclear how indicative offline results are of driving performance. In this work, we perform the first empirical evaluation measuring how predictive different detection metrics are of driving performance when detectors are integrated into a full self-driving stack. We conduct extensive experiments on urban driving in the CARLA simulator using 16 object detection models. We find that the nuScenes Detection Score has a higher correlation to driving performance than the widely used average precision metric. In addition, our results call for caution on the exclusive reliance on the emerging class of `planner-centric' metrics.

Handling entirely unknown data is a challenge for any deployed classifier. Classification models are typically trained on a static pre-defined dataset and are kept in the dark for the open unassigned feature space. As a result, they struggle to deal with out-of-distribution data during inference. Addressing this task on the class-level is termed open-set recognition (OSR). However, most OSR methods are inherently limited, as they train closed-set classifiers and only adapt the downstream predictions to OSR. This work presents LORD, a framework to Leverage Open-set Recognition by exploiting unknown Data. LORD explicitly models open space during classifier training and provides a systematic evaluation for such approaches. We identify three model-agnostic training strategies that exploit background data and applied them to well-established classifiers. Due to LORD's extensive evaluation protocol, we consistently demonstrate improved recognition of unknown data. The benchmarks facilitate in-depth analysis across various requirement levels. To mitigate dependency on extensive and costly background datasets, we explore mixup as an off-the-shelf data generation technique. Our experiments highlight mixup's effectiveness as a substitute for background datasets. Lightweight constraints on mixup synthesis further improve OSR performance.

Rapid and accurate building damage assessments from high-resolution satellite imagery following a natural disaster is essential to inform and optimize first responder efforts. However, performing such building damage assessments in an automated manner is non-trivial due to the challenges posed by variations in disaster-specific damage, diversity in satellite imagery, and the dearth of extensive, labeled datasets. To circumvent these issues, this paper introduces a human-in-the-loop workflow for rapidly training building damage assessment models after a natural disaster. This article details a case study using this workflow, executed in partnership with the American Red Cross during a tornado event in Rolling Fork, Mississippi in March, 2023. The output from our human-in-the-loop modeling process achieved a precision of 0.86 and recall of 0.80 for damaged buildings when compared to ground truth data collected post-disaster. This workflow was implemented end-to-end in under 2 hours per satellite imagery scene, highlighting its potential for real-time deployment.

Healthcare data in the United States often records only a patient's coarse race group: for example, both Indian and Chinese patients are typically coded as "Asian." It is unknown, however, whether this coarse coding conceals meaningful disparities in the performance of clinical risk scores across granular race groups. Here we show that it does. Using data from 418K emergency department visits, we assess clinical risk score performance disparities across 26 granular groups for three outcomes, five risk scores, and four performance metrics. Across outcomes and metrics, we show that the risk scores exhibit significant granular performance disparities within coarse race groups. In fact, variation in performance within coarse groups often *exceeds* the variation between coarse groups. We explore why these disparities arise, finding that outcome rates, feature distributions, and the relationships between features and outcomes all vary significantly across granular groups. Our results suggest that healthcare providers, hospital systems, and machine learning researchers should strive to collect, release, and use granular race data in place of coarse race data, and that existing analyses may significantly underestimate racial disparities in performance.

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings where the outcome is selectively observed given some choices made by human decision makers. There often exists unobserved confounders that affected the decision maker's choice and the outcome. We propose a unified methodology for the robust design and evaluation of predictive algorithms in selectively observed data under such unobserved confounding. Our approach imposes general assumptions on how much the outcome may vary on average between unselected and selected units conditional on observed covariates and identified nuisance parameters, formalizing popular empirical strategies for imputing missing data such as proxy outcomes and instrumental variables. We develop debiased machine learning estimators for the bounds on a large class of predictive performance estimands, such as the conditional likelihood of the outcome, a predictive algorithm's mean square error, true/false positive rate, and many others, under these assumptions. In an administrative dataset from a large Australian financial institution, we illustrate how varying assumptions on unobserved confounding leads to meaningful changes in default risk predictions and evaluations of credit scores across sensitive groups.