In many randomized experiments, the treatment effect of the long-term metric (i.e. the primary outcome of interest) is often difficult or infeasible to measure. Such long-term metrics are often slow to react to changes and sufficiently noisy they are challenging to faithfully estimate in short-horizon experiments. A common alternative is to measure several short-term proxy metrics in the hope they closely track the long-term metric -- so they can be used to effectively guide decision-making in the near-term. We introduce a new statistical framework to both define and construct an optimal proxy metric for use in a homogeneous population of randomized experiments. Our procedure first reduces the construction of an optimal proxy metric in a given experiment to a portfolio optimization problem which depends on the true latent treatment effects and noise level of experiment under consideration. We then denoise the observed treatment effects of the long-term metric and a set of proxies in a historical corpus of randomized experiments to extract estimates of the latent treatment effects for use in the optimization problem. One key insight derived from our approach is that the optimal proxy metric for a given experiment is not apriori fixed; rather it should depend on the sample size (or effective noise level) of the randomized experiment for which it is deployed. To instantiate and evaluate our framework, we employ our methodology in a large corpus of randomized experiments from an industrial recommendation system and construct proxy metrics that perform favorably relative to several baselines.

High-dimensional compositional data are prevalent in many applications. The simplex constraint poses intrinsic challenges to inferring the conditional dependence relationships among the components forming a composition, as encoded by a large precision matrix. We introduce a precise specification of the compositional precision matrix and relate it to its basis counterpart, which is shown to be asymptotically identifiable under suitable sparsity assumptions. By exploiting this connection, we propose a composition adaptive regularized estimation (CARE) method for estimating the sparse basis precision matrix. We derive rates of convergence for the estimator and provide theoretical guarantees on support recovery and data-driven parameter tuning. Our theory reveals an intriguing trade-off between identification and estimation, thereby highlighting the blessing of dimensionality in compositional data analysis. In particular, in sufficiently high dimensions, the CARE estimator achieves minimax optimality and performs as well as if the basis were observed. We further discuss how our framework can be extended to handle data containing zeros, including sampling zeros and structural zeros. The advantages of CARE over existing methods are illustrated by simulation studies and an application to inferring microbial ecological networks in the human gut.

Random forests (RFs) are well suited for prediction modeling and variable selection in high-dimensional omics studies. The effect of hyperparameters of the RF algorithm on prediction performance and variable importance estimation have previously been investigated. However, how hyperparameters impact RF-based variable selection remains unclear. We evaluate the effects on the Vita and the Boruta variable selection procedures based on two simulation studies utilizing theoretical distributions and empirical gene expression data. We assess the ability of the procedures to select important variables (sensitivity) while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). Our results show that the proportion of splitting candidate variables (mtry.prop) and the sample fraction (sample.fraction) for the training dataset influence the selection procedures more than the drawing strategy of the training datasets and the minimal terminal node size. A suitable setting of the RF hyperparameters depends on the correlation structure in the data. For weakly correlated predictor variables, the default value of mtry is optimal, but smaller values of sample.fraction result in larger sensitivity. In contrast, the difference in sensitivity of the optimal compared to the default value of sample.fraction is negligible for strongly correlated predictor variables, whereas smaller values than the default are better in the other settings. In conclusion, the default values of the hyperparameters will not always be suitable for identifying important variables. Thus, adequate values differ depending on whether the aim of the study is optimizing prediction performance or variable selection.

With recent advances in Generative AI, it is becoming easier to automatically manipulate 3D models. However, current methods tend to apply edits to models globally, which risks compromising the intended functionality of the 3D model when fabricated in the physical world. For example, modifying functional segments in 3D models, such as the base of a vase, could break the original functionality of the model, thus causing the vase to fall over. We introduce a method for automatically segmenting 3D models into functional and aesthetic elements. This method allows users to selectively modify aesthetic segments of 3D models, without affecting the functional segments. To develop this method we first create a taxonomy of functionality in 3D models by qualitatively analyzing 1000 models sourced from a popular 3D printing repository, Thingiverse. With this taxonomy, we develop a semi-automatic classification method to decompose 3D models into functional and aesthetic elements. We propose a system called Style2Fab that allows users to selectively stylize 3D models without compromising their functionality. We evaluate the effectiveness of our classification method compared to human-annotated data, and demonstrate the utility of Style2Fab with a user study to show that functionality-aware segmentation helps preserve model functionality.

Logs play a crucial role in system monitoring and debugging by recording valuable system information, including events and states. Although various methods have been proposed to detect anomalies in log sequences, they often overlook the significance of considering relations among system components, such as services and users, which can be identified from log contents. Understanding these relations is vital for detecting anomalies and their underlying causes. To address this issue, we introduce GLAD, a Graph-based Log Anomaly Detection framework designed to detect relational anomalies in system logs. GLAD incorporates log semantics, relational patterns, and sequential patterns into a unified framework for anomaly detection. Specifically, GLAD first introduces a field extraction module that utilizes prompt-based few-shot learning to identify essential fields from log contents. Then GLAD constructs dynamic log graphs for sliding windows by interconnecting extracted fields and log events parsed from the log parser. These graphs represent events and fields as nodes and their relations as edges. Subsequently, GLAD utilizes a temporal-attentive graph edge anomaly detection model for identifying anomalous relations in these dynamic log graphs. This model employs a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based encoder enhanced with transformers to capture content, structural and temporal features. We evaluate our proposed method on three datasets, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of GLAD in detecting anomalies indicated by varying relational patterns.

While large language models excel in a variety of natural language processing (NLP) tasks, to perform well on spoken language understanding (SLU) tasks, they must either rely on off-the-shelf automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems for transcription, or be equipped with an in-built speech modality. This work focuses on the former scenario, where LLM's accuracy on SLU tasks is constrained by the accuracy of a fixed ASR system on the spoken input. Specifically, we tackle speech-intent classification task, where a high word-error-rate can limit the LLM's ability to understand the spoken intent. Instead of chasing a high accuracy by designing complex or specialized architectures regardless of deployment costs, we seek to answer how far we can go without substantially changing the underlying ASR and LLM, which can potentially be shared by multiple unrelated tasks. To this end, we propose prompting the LLM with an n-best list of ASR hypotheses instead of only the error-prone 1-best hypothesis. We explore prompt-engineering to explain the concept of n-best lists to the LLM; followed by the finetuning of Low-Rank Adapters on the downstream tasks. Our approach using n-best lists proves to be effective on a device-directed speech detection task as well as on a keyword spotting task, where systems using n-best list prompts outperform those using 1-best ASR hypothesis; thus paving the way for an efficient method to exploit ASR uncertainty via LLMs for speech-based applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly impacted numerous domains, including Software Engineering (SE). Many recent publications have explored LLMs applied to various SE tasks. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the application, effects, and possible limitations of LLMs on SE is still in its early stages. To bridge this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review on LLM4SE, with a particular focus on understanding how LLMs can be exploited to optimize processes and outcomes. We collect and analyze 229 research papers from 2017 to 2023 to answer four key research questions (RQs). In RQ1, we categorize different LLMs that have been employed in SE tasks, characterizing their distinctive features and uses. In RQ2, we analyze the methods used in data collection, preprocessing, and application highlighting the role of well-curated datasets for successful LLM for SE implementation. RQ3 investigates the strategies employed to optimize and evaluate the performance of LLMs in SE. Finally, RQ4 examines the specific SE tasks where LLMs have shown success to date, illustrating their practical contributions to the field. From the answers to these RQs, we discuss the current state-of-the-art and trends, identifying gaps in existing research, and flagging promising areas for future study.

The emergence of a variety of Machine Learning (ML) approaches for travel mode choice prediction poses an interesting question to transport modellers: which models should be used for which applications? The answer to this question goes beyond simple predictive performance, and is instead a balance of many factors, including behavioural interpretability and explainability, computational complexity, and data efficiency. There is a growing body of research which attempts to compare the predictive performance of different ML classifiers with classical random utility models. However, existing studies typically analyse only the disaggregate predictive performance, ignoring other aspects affecting model choice. Furthermore, many studies are affected by technical limitations, such as the use of inappropriate validation schemes, incorrect sampling for hierarchical data, lack of external validation, and the exclusive use of discrete metrics. We address these limitations by conducting a systematic comparison of different modelling approaches, across multiple modelling problems, in terms of the key factors likely to affect model choice (out-of-sample predictive performance, accuracy of predicted market shares, extraction of behavioural indicators, and computational efficiency). We combine several real world datasets with synthetic datasets, where the data generation function is known. The results indicate that the models with the highest disaggregate predictive performance (namely extreme gradient boosting and random forests) provide poorer estimates of behavioural indicators and aggregate mode shares, and are more expensive to estimate, than other models, including deep neural networks and Multinomial Logit (MNL). It is further observed that the MNL model performs robustly in a variety of situations, though ML techniques can improve the estimates of behavioural indices such as Willingness to Pay.

Matching algorithms are commonly used to predict matches between items in a collection. For example, in 1:1 face verification, a matching algorithm predicts whether two face images depict the same person. Accurately assessing the uncertainty of the error rates of such algorithms can be challenging when data are dependent and error rates are low, two aspects that have been often overlooked in the literature. In this work, we review methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks. We derive and examine the statistical properties of these methods, demonstrating how coverage and interval width vary with sample size, error rates, and degree of data dependence on both analysis and experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations for best practices for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.

As robots acquire increasingly sophisticated skills and see increasingly complex and varied environments, the threat of an edge case or anomalous failure is ever present. For example, Tesla cars have seen interesting failure modes ranging from autopilot disengagements due to inactive traffic lights carried by trucks to phantom braking caused by images of stop signs on roadside billboards. These system-level failures are not due to failures of any individual component of the autonomy stack but rather system-level deficiencies in semantic reasoning. Such edge cases, which we call semantic anomalies, are simple for a human to disentangle yet require insightful reasoning. To this end, we study the application of large language models (LLMs), endowed with broad contextual understanding and reasoning capabilities, to recognize such edge cases and introduce a monitoring framework for semantic anomaly detection in vision-based policies. Our experiments apply this framework to a finite state machine policy for autonomous driving and a learned policy for object manipulation. These experiments demonstrate that the LLM-based monitor can effectively identify semantic anomalies in a manner that shows agreement with human reasoning. Finally, we provide an extended discussion on the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and motivate a research outlook on how we can further use foundation models for semantic anomaly detection.