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 Performance Analysis


Sparse classification with positive-confidence data in high dimensions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

High-dimensional learning problems, where the number of features exceeds the sample size, often require sparse regularization for effective prediction and variable selection. While established for fully supervised data, these techniques remain underexplored in weak-supervision settings such as Positive-Confidence (Pconf) classification. Pconf learning utilizes only positive samples equipped with confidence scores, thereby avoiding the need for negative data. However, existing Pconf methods are ill-suited for high-dimensional regimes. This paper proposes a novel sparse-penalization framework for high-dimensional Pconf classification. We introduce estimators using convex (Lasso) and non-convex (SCAD, MCP) penalties to address shrinkage bias and improve feature recovery. Theoretically, we establish estimation and prediction error bounds for the L1-regularized Pconf estimator, proving it achieves near minimax-optimal sparse recovery rates under Restricted Strong Convexity condition. To solve the resulting composite objective, we develop an efficient proximal gradient algorithm. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our proposed methods achieve predictive performance and variable selection accuracy comparable to fully supervised approaches, effectively bridging the gap between weak supervision and high-dimensional statistics.


Theory and Algorithms for Learning with Multi-Class Abstention and Multi-Expert Deferral

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance but face critical challenges: hallucinations and high inference costs. Leveraging multiple experts offers a solution: deferring uncertain inputs to more capable experts improves reliability, while routing simpler queries to smaller, distilled models enhances efficiency. This motivates the problem of learning with multiple-expert deferral. This thesis presents a comprehensive study of this problem and the related problem of learning with abstention, supported by strong consistency guarantees. First, for learning with abstention (a special case of deferral), we analyze score-based and predictor-rejector formulations in multi-class classification. We introduce new families of surrogate losses and prove strong non-asymptotic, hypothesis set-specific consistency guarantees, resolving two existing open questions. We analyze both single-stage and practical two-stage settings, with experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and SVHN demonstrating the superior performance of our algorithms. Second, we address general multi-expert deferral in classification. We design new surrogate losses for both single-stage and two-stage scenarios and prove they benefit from strong $H$-consistency bounds. For the two-stage scenario, we show that our surrogate losses are realizable $H$-consistent for constant cost functions, leading to effective new algorithms. Finally, we introduce a novel framework for regression with deferral to address continuous label spaces. Our versatile framework accommodates multiple experts and various cost structures, supporting both single-stage and two-stage methods. It subsumes recent work on regression with abstention. We propose new surrogate losses with proven $H$-consistency and demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of the resulting algorithms.



Iterative Connecting Probability Estimation for Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Estimating the probabilities of connections between vertices in a random network using an observed adjacency matrix is an important task for network data analysis. Many existing estimation methods are based on certain assumptions on network structure, which limit their applicability in practice. Without making strong assumptions, we develop an iterative connecting probability estimation method based on neighborhood averaging. Starting at a random initial point or an existing estimate, our method iteratively updates the pairwise vertex distances, the sets of similar vertices, and connecting probabilities to improve the precision of the estimate. We propose a two-stage neighborhood selection procedure to achieve the trade-off between smoothness of the estimate and the ability to discover local structure. The tuning parameters can be selected by cross-validation. We establish desirable theoretical properties for our method, and further justify its superior performance by comparing with existing methods in simulation and real data analysis.


False Discovery Proportion control for aggregated Knockoffs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Controlled variable selection is an important analytical step in various scientific fields, such as brain imaging or genomics. In these high-dimensional data settings, considering too many variables leads to poor models and high costs, hence the need for statistical guarantees on false positives. Knockoffs are a popular statistical tool for conditional variable selection in high dimension. However, they control for the expected proportion of false discoveries (FDR) and not the actual proportion of false discoveries (FDP). We present a new method, KOPI, that controls the proportion of false discoveries for Knockoff-based inference. The proposed method also relies on a new type of aggregation to address the undesirable randomness associated with classical Knockoff inference. We demonstrate FDP control and substantial power gains over existing Knockoff-based methods in various simulation settings and achieve good sensitivity/specificity tradeoffs on brain imaging data.


On the Size and Approximation Error of Distilled Datasets

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dataset Distillation is the task of synthesizing small datasets from large ones while still retaining comparable predictive accuracy to the original uncompressed dataset. Despite significant empirical progress in recent years, there is little understanding of the theoretical limitations/guarantees of dataset distillation, specifically, what excess risk is achieved by distillation compared to the original dataset, and how large are distilled datasets? In this work, we take a theoretical view on kernel ridge regression (KRR) based methods of dataset distillation such as Kernel Inducing Points. By transforming ridge regression in random Fourier features (RFF) space, we provide the first proof of the existence of small (size) distilled datasets and their corresponding excess risk for shift-invariant kernels. We prove that a small set of instances exists in the original input space such that its solution in the RFF space coincides with the solution of the original data. We further show that a KRR solution can be generated using this distilled set of instances which gives an approximation towards the KRR solution optimized on the full input data. The size of this set is linear in the dimension of the RFF space of the input set or alternatively near linear in the number of effective degrees of freedom, which is a function of the kernel, number of data points, and the regularization parameter $\lambda$. The error bound of this distilled set is also a function of $\lambda$. We verify our bounds analytically and empirically.


Assumption violations in causal discovery and the robustness of score matching

Neural Information Processing Systems

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical properties of their data. Because causal discovery without further assumptions is an ill-posed problem, each algorithm comes with its own set of usually untestable assumptions, some of which are hard to meet in real datasets. Motivated by these considerations, this paper extensively benchmarks the empirical performance of recent causal discovery methods on observational data generated under different background conditions, allowing for violations of the critical assumptions required by each selected approach. Our experimental findings show that score matching-based methods demonstrate surprising performance in the false positive and false negative rate of the inferred graph in these challenging scenarios, and we provide theoretical insights into their performance. This work is also the first effort to benchmark the stability of causal discovery algorithms with respect to the values of their hyperparameters. Finally, we hope this paper will set a new standard for the evaluation of causal discovery methods and can serve as an accessible entry point for practitioners interested in the field, highlighting the empirical implications of different algorithm choices.


GradOrth: A Simple yet Efficient Out-of-Distribution Detection with Orthogonal Projection of Gradients

Neural Information Processing Systems

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data is crucial for ensuring the safe deployment of machine learning models in real-world applications. However, existing OOD detection approaches primarily rely on the feature maps or the full gradient space information to derive OOD scores neglecting the role of \textbf{most important parameters} of the pre-trained network over In-Distribution data. In this study, we propose a novel approach called GradOrth to facilitate OOD detection based on one intriguing observation that the important features to identify OOD data lie in the lower-rank subspace of in-distribution (ID) data.In particular, we identify OOD data by computing the norm of gradient projection on \textit{the subspaces considered \textbf{important} for the in-distribution data}. A large orthogonal projection value (i.e. a small projection value) indicates the sample as OOD as it captures a weak correlation of the in-distribution (ID) data. This simple yet effective method exhibits outstanding performance, showcasing a notable reduction in the average false positive rate at a 95\% true positive rate (FPR95) of up to 8\% when compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.


A New Perspective on Pool-Based Active Classification and False-Discovery Control

Neural Information Processing Systems

In many scientific settings there is a need for adaptive experimental design to guide the process of identifying regions of the search space that contain as many true positives as possible subject to a low rate of false discoveries (i.e.


Assessing Disparate Impact of Personalized Interventions: Identifiability and Bounds

Neural Information Processing Systems

Personalized interventions in social services, education, and healthcare leverage individual-level causal effect predictions in order to give the best treatment to each individual or to prioritize program interventions for the individuals most likely to benefit. While the sensitivity of these domains compels us to evaluate the fairness of such policies, we show that actually auditing their disparate impacts per standard observational metrics, such as true positive rates, is impossible since ground truths are unknown. Whether our data is experimental or observational, an individual's actual outcome under an intervention different than that received can never be known, only predicted based on features. We prove how we can nonetheless point-identify these quantities under the additional assumption of monotone treatment response, which may be reasonable in many applications. We further provide a sensitivity analysis for this assumption via sharp partial-identification bounds under violations of monotonicity of varying strengths. We show how to use our results to audit personalized interventions using partially-identified ROC and xROC curves and demonstrate this in a case study of a French job training dataset.