The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on the global economy and continues to exact a significant toll on human lives. The COVID-19 case growth rate stands as a key epidemiological parameter to estimate and monitor for effective detection and containment of the resurgence of outbreaks. A fundamental challenge in growth rate estimation and hence outbreak detection is balancing the accuracy-speed tradeoff, where accuracy typically degrades with shorter fitting windows. In this paper, we develop a machine learning (ML) algorithm, which we call Transfer Learning Generalized Random Forest (TLGRF), that balances this accuracy-speed tradeoff. Specifically, we estimate the instantaneous COVID-19 exponential growth rate for each U.S. county by using TLGRF that chooses an adaptive fitting window size based on relevant day-level and county-level features affecting the disease spread. Through transfer learning, TLGRF can accurately estimate case growth rates for counties with small sample sizes. Out-of-sample prediction analysis shows that TLGRF outperforms established growth rate estimation methods. Furthermore, we conducted a case study based on outbreak case data from the state of Colorado and showed that the timely detection of outbreaks could have been improved by up to 224% using TLGRF when compared to the decisions made by Colorado's Department of Health and Environment (CDPHE). To facilitate implementation, we have developed a publicly available outbreak detection tool for timely detection of COVID-19 outbreaks in each U.S. county, which received substantial attention from policymakers.

This paper presents new quadrature rules for functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space using nodes drawn by a sampling algorithm known as randomly pivoted Cholesky. The resulting computational procedure compares favorably to previous kernel quadrature methods, which either achieve low accuracy or require solving a computationally challenging sampling problem. Theoretical and numerical results show that randomly pivoted Cholesky is fast and achieves comparable quadrature error rates to more computationally expensive quadrature schemes based on continuous volume sampling, thinning, and recombination. Randomly pivoted Cholesky is easily adapted to complicated geometries with arbitrary kernels, unlocking new potential for kernel quadrature.

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the number of malware attacks that use encrypted HTTP traffic for self-propagation or communication. Antivirus software and firewalls typically will not have access to encryption keys, and therefore direct detection of malicious encrypted data is unlikely to succeed. However, previous work has shown that traffic analysis can provide indications of malicious intent, even in cases where the underlying data remains encrypted. In this paper, we apply three machine learning techniques to the problem of distinguishing malicious encrypted HTTP traffic from benign encrypted traffic and obtain results comparable to previous work. We then consider the problem of feature analysis in some detail. Previous work has often relied on human expertise to determine the most useful and informative features in this problem domain. We demonstrate that such feature-related information can be obtained directly from machine learning models themselves. We argue that such a machine learning based approach to feature analysis is preferable, as it is more reliable, and we can, for example, uncover relatively unintuitive interactions between features.

The healthcare industry generates enormous amounts of complex clinical data that make the prediction of disease detection a complicated process. In medical informatics, making effective and efficient decisions is very important. Data Mining (DM) techniques are mainly used to identify and extract hidden patterns and interesting knowledge to diagnose and predict diseases in medical datasets. Nowadays, heart disease is considered one of the most important problems in the healthcare field. Therefore, early diagnosis leads to a reduction in deaths. DM techniques have proven highly effective for predicting and diagnosing heart diseases. This work utilizes the classification algorithms with a medical dataset of heart disease; namely, J48, Random Forest, and Na\"ive Bayes to discover the accuracy of their performance. We also examine the impact of the feature selection method. A comparative and analysis study was performed to determine the best technique using Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (Weka) software, version 3.8.6. The performance of the utilized algorithms was evaluated using standard metrics such as accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. The importance of using classification techniques for heart disease diagnosis has been highlighted. We also reduced the number of attributes in the dataset, which showed a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. The results indicate that the best algorithm for predicting heart disease was Random Forest with an accuracy of 99.24%.

Due to the availability of only a few labeled instances for the novel target prediction task and the significant domain shift between the well annotated source domain and the target domain, cross-domain few-shot learning (CDFSL) induces a very challenging adaptation problem. In this paper, we propose a simple Adaptive Weighted Co-Learning (AWCoL) method to address the CDFSL challenge by adapting two independently trained source prototypical classification models to the target task in a weighted co-learning manner. The proposed method deploys a weighted moving average prediction strategy to generate probabilistic predictions from each model, and then conducts adaptive co-learning by jointly fine-tuning the two models in an alternating manner based on the pseudo-labels and instance weights produced from the predictions. Moreover, a negative pseudo-labeling regularizer is further deployed to improve the fine-tuning process by penalizing false predictions. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on multiple benchmark datasets and the empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method produces state-of-the-art CDFSL performance.

Extractive question answering (QA) systems can enable physicians and researchers to query medical records, a foundational capability for designing clinical studies and understanding patient medical history. However, building these systems typically requires expert-annotated QA pairs. Large language models (LLMs), which can perform extractive QA, depend on high quality data in their prompts, specialized for the application domain. We introduce a novel approach, XAIQA, for generating synthetic QA pairs at scale from data naturally available in electronic health records. Our method uses the idea of a classification model explainer to generate questions and answers about medical concepts corresponding to medical codes. In an expert evaluation with two physicians, our method identifies $2.2\times$ more semantic matches and $3.8\times$ more clinical abbreviations than two popular approaches that use sentence transformers to create QA pairs. In an ML evaluation, adding our QA pairs improves performance of GPT-4 as an extractive QA model, including on difficult questions. In both the expert and ML evaluations, we examine trade-offs between our method and sentence transformers for QA pair generation depending on question difficulty.

In testing industry, precise item categorization is pivotal to align exam questions with the designated content domains outlined in the assessment blueprint. Traditional methods either entail manual classification, which is laborious and error-prone, or utilize machine learning requiring extensive training data, often leading to model underfit or overfit issues. This study unveils a novel approach employing the zero-shot and few-shot Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) classifier for hierarchical item categorization, minimizing the necessity for training data, and instead, leveraging human-like language descriptions to define categories. Through a structured python dictionary, the hierarchical nature of examination blueprints is navigated seamlessly, allowing for a tiered classification of items across multiple levels. An initial simulation with artificial data demonstrates the efficacy of this method, achieving an average accuracy of 92.91% measured by the F1 score. This method was further applied to real exam items from the 2022 In-Training Examination (ITE) conducted by the American Board of Family Medicine (ABFM), reclassifying 200 items according to a newly formulated blueprint swiftly in 15 minutes, a task that traditionally could span several days among editors and physicians. This innovative approach not only drastically cuts down classification time but also ensures a consistent, principle-driven categorization, minimizing human biases and discrepancies. The ability to refine classifications by adjusting definitions adds to its robustness and sustainability.

This paper presents a novel benchmarking framework Dyport for evaluating biomedical hypothesis generation systems. Utilizing curated datasets, our approach tests these systems under realistic conditions, enhancing the relevance of our evaluations. We integrate knowledge from the curated databases into a dynamic graph, accompanied by a method to quantify discovery importance. This not only assesses hypothesis accuracy but also their potential impact in biomedical research which significantly extends traditional link prediction benchmarks. Applicability of our benchmarking process is demonstrated on several link prediction systems applied on biomedical semantic knowledge graphs. Being flexible, our benchmarking system is designed for broad application in hypothesis generation quality verification, aiming to expand the scope of scientific discovery within the biomedical research community. Availability and implementation: Dyport framework is fully open-source. All code and datasets are available at: https://github.com/IlyaTyagin/Dyport

Alzheimer's disease has an increasing prevalence in the population world-wide, yet current diagnostic methods based on recommended biomarkers are only available in specialized clinics. Due to these circumstances, Alzheimer's disease is usually diagnosed late, which contrasts with the currently available treatment options that are only effective for patients at an early stage. Blood-based biomarkers could fill in the gap of easily accessible and low-cost methods for early diagnosis of the disease. In particular, immune-based blood-biomarkers might be a promising option, given the recently discovered cross-talk of immune cells of the central nervous system with those in the peripheral immune system. With the help of machine learning algorithms and mechanistic modeling approaches, such as agent-based modeling, an in-depth analysis of the simulation of cell dynamics is possible as well as of high-dimensional omics resources indicative of pathway signaling changes. Here, we give a background on advances in research on brain-immune system cross-talk in Alzheimer's disease and review recent machine learning and mechanistic modeling approaches which leverage modern omics technologies for blood-based immune system-related biomarker discovery.

Recent advances in the development of vision-language models (VLMs) are yielding remarkable success in recognizing visual semantic content, including impressive instances of compositional image understanding. Here, we introduce the novel task of Visual Data-Type Identification, a basic perceptual skill with implications for data curation (e.g., noisy data-removal from large datasets, domain-specific retrieval) and autonomous vision (e.g., distinguishing changing weather conditions from camera lens staining). We develop two datasets consisting of animal images altered across a diverse set of 27 visual data-types, spanning four broad categories. An extensive zero-shot evaluation of 39 VLMs, ranging from 100M to 80B parameters, shows a nuanced performance landscape. While VLMs are reasonably good at identifying certain stylistic \textit{data-types}, such as cartoons and sketches, they struggle with simpler data-types arising from basic manipulations like image rotations or additive noise. Our findings reveal that (i) model scaling alone yields marginal gains for contrastively-trained models like CLIP, and (ii) there is a pronounced drop in performance for the largest auto-regressively trained VLMs like OpenFlamingo. This finding points to a blind spot in current frontier VLMs: they excel in recognizing semantic content but fail to acquire an understanding of visual data-types through scaling. By analyzing the pre-training distributions of these models and incorporating data-type information into the captions during fine-tuning, we achieve a significant enhancement in performance. By exploring this previously uncharted task, we aim to set the stage for further advancing VLMs to equip them with visual data-type understanding. Code and datasets are released at https://github.com/bethgelab/DataTypeIdentification.