In foreign exchange (FX), as in other asset classes, broker-client relationships are ubiquitous. The broker streams bid and ask quotes to her clients and the clients decide when to trade on these quotes, so the broker bears the risk of adverse selection when trading with better informed clients. These risks are borne by both liquidity providers who stream quotes to individual parties and by market participants who provide liquidity in the books of electronic exchanges. However, in contrast to electronic order books in which trading is anonymous for all participants (e.g., in Nasdaq, LSE, Euronext), in broker-client relationships the broker knows which client executed the order. This privileged information can be used by the broker to classify flow, i.e., toxic or benign, and to devise strategies that mitigate adverse selection costs. In the literature, models generally classify traders as informed or uninformed; see e.g., Bagehot (1971), Copeland and Galai (1983), Grossman and Stiglitz (1980), Amihud and Mendelson (1980), Kyle (1989), Kyle (1985), and Glosten and Milgrom (1985). In equity markets, many studies focus on informed flow (i.e., asymmetry of information) across various traded stocks, see e.g., Easley et al. (1996) who study the probability of informed trading at the stock level, while our study focuses on We thank Andrew Stewart, Alistair Sturgiss, Fayçal Drissi, Patrick Chang, Álvaro Arroyo, Sergio Calvo Ordoñez, and participants at the Oxford Victoria Seminar for comments. ChatGPT suggested the name PULSE for our algorithm.

Automated classifiers (ACs), often built via supervised machine learning (SML), can categorize large, statistically powerful samples of data ranging from text to images and video, and have become widely popular measurement devices in communication science and related fields. Despite this popularity, even highly accurate classifiers make errors that cause misclassification bias and misleading results in downstream analyses-unless such analyses account for these errors. As we show in a systematic literature review of SML applications, communication scholars largely ignore misclassification bias. In principle, existing statistical methods can use "gold standard" validation data, such as that created by human annotators, to correct misclassification bias and produce consistent estimates. We introduce and test such methods, including a new method we design and implement in the R package misclassificationmodels, via Monte Carlo simulations designed to reveal each method's limitations, which we also release. Based on our results, we recommend our new error correction method as it is versatile and efficient. In sum, automated classifiers, even those below common accuracy standards or making systematic misclassifications, can be useful for measurement with careful study design and appropriate error correction methods.

In this paper, we consider a theoretical model for injecting data bias, namely, under-representation and label bias (Blum & Stangl, 2019). We empirically study the effect of varying data biases on the accuracy and fairness of fair classifiers. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets (e.g., Adult, German Credit, Bank Marketing, COMPAS), we empirically audit pre-, in-, and post-processing fair classifiers from standard fairness toolkits for their fairness and accuracy by injecting varying amounts of under-representation and label bias in their training data (but not the test data). Our main observations are: 1. The fairness and accuracy of many standard fair classifiers degrade severely as the bias injected in their training data increases, 2. A simple logistic regression model trained on the right data can often outperform, in both accuracy and fairness, most fair classifiers trained on biased training data, and 3. A few, simple fairness techniques (e.g., reweighing, exponentiated gradients) seem to offer stable accuracy and fairness guarantees even when their training data is injected with under-representation and label bias. Our experiments also show how to integrate a measure of data bias risk in the existing fairness dashboards for real-world deployments.

We study the problem of post-processing a supervised machine-learned regressor to maximize fair binary classification at all decision thresholds. By decreasing the statistical distance between each group's score distributions, we show that we can increase fair performance across all thresholds at once, and that we can do so without a large decrease in accuracy. To this end, we introduce a formal measure of Distributional Parity, which captures the degree of similarity in the distributions of classifications for different protected groups. Our main result is to put forward a novel post-processing algorithm based on optimal transport, which provably maximizes Distributional Parity, thereby attaining common notions of group fairness like Equalized Odds or Equal Opportunity at all thresholds. We demonstrate on two fairness benchmarks that our technique works well empirically, while also outperforming and generalizing similar techniques from related work.

Real-world datasets often exhibit imbalanced data distribution, where certain class levels are severely underrepresented. In such cases, traditional pattern classifiers have shown a bias towards the majority class, impeding accurate predictions for the minority class. This paper introduces an imbalanced data-oriented approach using probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) with a skew normal probability kernel to address this major challenge. PNNs are known for providing probabilistic outputs, enabling quantification of prediction confidence and uncertainty handling. By leveraging the skew normal distribution, which offers increased flexibility, particularly for imbalanced and non-symmetric data, our proposed Skew Probabilistic Neural Networks (SkewPNNs) can better represent underlying class densities. To optimize the performance of the proposed approach on imbalanced datasets, hyperparameter fine-tuning is imperative. To this end, we employ a population-based heuristic algorithm, Bat optimization algorithms, for effectively exploring the hyperparameter space. We also prove the statistical consistency of the density estimates which suggests that the true distribution will be approached smoothly as the sample size increases. Experimental simulations have been conducted on different synthetic datasets, comparing various benchmark-imbalanced learners. Our real-data analysis shows that SkewPNNs substantially outperform state-of-the-art machine learning methods for both balanced and imbalanced datasets in most experimental settings.

Quantifying variable importance is essential for answering high-stakes questions in fields like genetics, public policy, and medicine. Current methods generally calculate variable importance for a given model trained on a given dataset. However, for a given dataset, there may be many models that explain the target outcome equally well; without accounting for all possible explanations, different researchers may arrive at many conflicting yet equally valid conclusions given the same data. Additionally, even when accounting for all possible explanations for a given dataset, these insights may not generalize because not all good explanations are stable across reasonable data perturbations. We propose a new variable importance framework that quantifies the importance of a variable across the set of all good models and is stable across the data distribution. Our framework is extremely flexible and can be integrated with most existing model classes and global variable importance metrics. We demonstrate through experiments that our framework recovers variable importance rankings for complex simulation setups where other methods fail. Further, we show that our framework accurately estimates the true importance of a variable for the underlying data distribution. We provide theoretical guarantees on the consistency and finite sample error rates for our estimator. Finally, we demonstrate its utility with a real-world case study exploring which genes are important for predicting HIV load in persons with HIV, highlighting an important gene that has not previously been studied in connection with HIV. Code is available at https://github.com/jdonnelly36/Rashomon_Importance_Distribution.

Adapting to drifting data streams is a significant challenge in online learning. Concept drift must be detected for effective model adaptation to evolving data properties. Concept drift can impact the data distribution entirely or partially, which makes it difficult for drift detectors to accurately identify the concept drift. Despite the numerous concept drift detectors in the literature, standardized procedures and benchmarks for comprehensive evaluation considering the locality of the drift are lacking. We present a novel categorization of concept drift based on its locality and scale. A systematic approach leads to a set of 2,760 benchmark problems, reflecting various difficulty levels following our proposed categorization. We conduct a comparative assessment of 9 state-of-the-art drift detectors across diverse difficulties, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses for future research. We examine how drift locality influences the classifier performance and propose strategies for different drift categories to minimize the recovery time. Lastly, we provide lessons learned and recommendations for future concept drift research. Our benchmark data streams and experiments are publicly available at https://github.com/gabrieljaguiar/locality-concept-drift.

This paper presents BELT, a novel model and learning framework for the pivotal topic of brain-to-language translation research. The translation from noninvasive brain signals into readable natural language has the potential to promote the application scenario as well as the development of brain-computer interfaces (BCI) as a whole. The critical problem in brain signal decoding or brain-to-language translation is the acquisition of semantically appropriate and discriminative EEG representation from a dataset of limited scale and quality. The proposed BELT method is a generic and efficient framework that bootstraps EEG representation learning using off-the-shelf large-scale pretrained language models (LMs). With a large LM's capacity for understanding semantic information and zero-shot generalization, BELT utilizes large LMs trained on Internet-scale datasets to bring significant improvements to the understanding of EEG signals. In particular, the BELT model is composed of a deep conformer encoder and a vector quantization encoder. Semantical EEG representation is achieved by a contrastive learning step that provides natural language supervision. We achieve state-of-the-art results on two featuring brain decoding tasks including the brain-to-language translation and zero-shot sentiment classification. Specifically, our model surpasses the baseline model on both tasks by 5.45% and over 10% and archives a 42.31% BLEU-1 score and 67.32% precision on the main evaluation metrics for translation and zero-shot sentiment classification respectively.

Atomic-scale defect detection is shown in scanning tunneling microscopy images of single crystal WSe2 using an ensemble of U-Net-like convolutional neural networks. Standard deep learning test metrics indicated good detection performance with an average F1 score of 0.66 and demonstrated ensemble generalization to C-AFM images of WSe2 and STM images of MoSe2. Defect coordinates were automatically extracted from defect detections maps showing that STM image analysis enhanced by machine learning can be used to dramatically increase sample characterization throughput.

In today's technologically driven world, the spread of fake news, particularly during crucial events such as elections, presents an increasing challenge to the integrity of information. To address this challenge, we introduce FakeWatch ElectionShield, an innovative framework carefully designed to detect fake news. We have created a novel dataset of North American election-related news articles through a blend of advanced language models (LMs) and thorough human verification, for precision and relevance. We propose a model hub of LMs for identifying fake news. Our goal is to provide the research community with adaptable and accurate classification models in recognizing the dynamic nature of misinformation. Extensive evaluation of fake news classifiers on our dataset and a benchmark dataset shows our that while state-of-the-art LMs slightly outperform the traditional ML models, classical models are still competitive with their balance of accuracy, explainability, and computational efficiency. This research sets the foundation for future studies to address misinformation related to elections.