Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Using AI, we achieve reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a 5-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (0-day lead time) from a current state of the art global modeling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). Additionally, we achieve accuracies over 5-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over 1-year return period events. This means that AI can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed in this paper was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims to identify test examples that do not belong to the training distribution and are thus unlikely to be predicted reliably. Despite a plethora of existing works, most of them focused only on the scenario where OOD examples come from semantic shift (e.g., unseen categories), ignoring other possible causes (e.g., covariate shift). In this paper, we present a novel, unifying framework to study OOD detection in a broader scope. Instead of detecting OOD examples from a particular cause, we propose to detect examples that a deployed machine learning model (e.g., an image classifier) is unable to predict correctly. That is, whether a test example should be detected and rejected or not is ``model-specific''. We show that this framework unifies the detection of OOD examples caused by semantic shift and covariate shift, and closely addresses the concern of applying a machine learning model to uncontrolled environments. We provide an extensive analysis that involves a variety of models (e.g., different architectures and training strategies), sources of OOD examples, and OOD detection approaches, and reveal several insights into improving and understanding OOD detection in uncontrolled environments.

Neural networks are capable of translating between languages -- in some cases even between two languages where there is little or no access to parallel translations, in what is known as Unsupervised Machine Translation (UMT). Given this progress, it is intriguing to ask whether machine learning tools can ultimately enable understanding animal communication, particularly that of highly intelligent animals. We propose a theoretical framework for analyzing UMT when no parallel translations are available and when it cannot be assumed that the source and target corpora address related subject domains or posses similar linguistic structure. We exemplify this theory with two stylized models of language, for which our framework provides bounds on necessary sample complexity; the bounds are formally proven and experimentally verified on synthetic data. These bounds show that the error rates are inversely related to the language complexity and amount of common ground. This suggests that unsupervised translation of animal communication may be feasible if the communication system is sufficiently complex.

We consider the problem of sequential multiple hypothesis testing with nontrivial data collection costs. This problem appears, for example, when conducting biological experiments to identify differentially expressed genes of a disease process. This work builds on the generalized $\alpha$-investing framework which enables control of the false discovery rate in a sequential testing setting. We make a theoretical analysis of the long term asymptotic behavior of $\alpha$-wealth which motivates a consideration of sample size in the $\alpha$-investing decision rule. Posing the testing process as a game with nature, we construct a decision rule that optimizes the expected $\alpha$-wealth reward (ERO) and provides an optimal sample size for each test. Empirical results show that a cost-aware ERO decision rule correctly rejects more false null hypotheses than other methods for $n=1$ where $n$ is the sample size. When the sample size is not fixed cost-aware ERO uses a prior on the null hypothesis to adaptively allocate of the sample budget to each test. We extend cost-aware ERO investing to finite-horizon testing which enables the decision rule to allocate samples in a non-myopic manner. Finally, empirical tests on real data sets from biological experiments show that cost-aware ERO balances the allocation of samples to an individual test against the allocation of samples across multiple tests.

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for inferring how covariates affect specific percentiles of the response distribution. Existing methods either estimate conditional quantiles separately for each quantile of interest or estimate the entire conditional distribution using semi- or non-parametric models. The former often produce inadequate models for real data and do not share information across quantiles, while the latter are characterized by complex and constrained models that can be difficult to interpret and computationally inefficient. Further, neither approach is well-suited for quantile-specific subset selection. Instead, we pose the fundamental problems of linear quantile estimation, uncertainty quantification, and subset selection from a Bayesian decision analysis perspective. For any Bayesian regression model, we derive optimal and interpretable linear estimates and uncertainty quantification for each model-based conditional quantile. Our approach introduces a quantile-focused squared error loss, which enables efficient, closed-form computing and maintains a close relationship with Wasserstein-based density estimation. In an extensive simulation study, our methods demonstrate substantial gains in quantile estimation accuracy, variable selection, and inference over frequentist and Bayesian competitors. We apply these tools to identify the quantile-specific impacts of social and environmental stressors on educational outcomes for a large cohort of children in North Carolina.

Kernel ridge regression, KRR, is a generalization of linear ridge regression that is non-linear in the data, but linear in the parameters. The solution can be obtained either as a closed-form solution, which includes a matrix inversion, or iteratively through gradient descent. Using the iterative approach opens up for changing the kernel during training, something that is investigated in this paper. We theoretically address the effects this has on model complexity and generalization. Based on our findings, we propose an update scheme for the bandwidth of translational-invariant kernels, where we let the bandwidth decrease to zero during training, thus circumventing the need for hyper-parameter selection. We demonstrate on real and synthetic data how decreasing the bandwidth during training outperforms using a constant bandwidth, selected by cross-validation and marginal likelihood maximization. We also show theoretically and empirically that using a decreasing bandwidth, we are able to achieve both zero training error in combination with good generalization, and a double descent behavior, phenomena that do not occur for KRR with constant bandwidth but are known to appear for neural networks.

Modern industrial facilities generate large volumes of raw sensor data during the production process. This data is used to monitor and control the processes and can be analyzed to detect and predict process abnormalities. Typically, the data has to be annotated by experts in order to be used in predictive modeling. However, manual annotation of large amounts of data can be difficult in industrial settings. In this paper, we propose SensorSCAN, a novel method for unsupervised fault detection and diagnosis, designed for industrial chemical process monitoring. We demonstrate our model's performance on two publicly available datasets of the Tennessee Eastman Process with various faults. The results show that our method significantly outperforms existing approaches (+0.2-0.3 TPR for a fixed FPR) and effectively detects most of the process faults without expert annotation. Moreover, we show that the model fine-tuned on a small fraction of labeled data nearly reaches the performance of a SOTA model trained on the full dataset. We also demonstrate that our method is suitable for real-world applications where the number of faults is not known in advance. The code is available at https://github.com/AIRI-Institute/sensorscan.

RNA protein Interactions (RPIs) play an important role in biological systems. Recently, we have enumerated the RPIs at the residue level and have elucidated the minimum structural unit (MSU) in these interactions to be a stretch of five residues (Nucleotides/amino acids). Pseudouridine is the most frequent modification in RNA. The conversion of uridine to pseudouridine involves interactions between pseudouridine synthase and RNA. The existing models to predict the pseudouridine sites in a given RNA sequence mainly depend on user-defined features such as mono and dinucleotide composition/propensities of RNA sequences. Predicting pseudouridine sites is a non-linear classification problem with limited data points. Deep Learning models are efficient discriminators when the data set size is reasonably large and fail when there is a paucity of data ($<1000$ samples). To mitigate this problem, we propose a Support Vector Machine (SVM) Kernel based on utility theory from Economics, and using data-driven parameters (i.e. MSU) as features. For this purpose, we have used position-specific tri/quad/pentanucleotide composition/propensity (PSPC/PSPP) besides nucleotide and dineculeotide composition as features. SVMs are known to work well in small data regimes and kernels in SVM are designed to classify non-linear data. The proposed model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art models significantly (10%-15% on average).

Artificial intelligence (AI) models trained using medical images for clinical tasks often exhibit bias in the form of disparities in performance between subgroups. Since not all sources of biases in real-world medical imaging data are easily identifiable, it is challenging to comprehensively assess how those biases are encoded in models, and how capable bias mitigation methods are at ameliorating performance disparities. In this article, we introduce a novel analysis framework for systematically and objectively investigating the impact of biases in medical images on AI models. We developed and tested this framework for conducting controlled in silico trials to assess bias in medical imaging AI using a tool for generating synthetic magnetic resonance images with known disease effects and sources of bias. The feasibility is showcased by using three counterfactual bias scenarios to measure the impact of simulated bias effects on a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier and the efficacy of three bias mitigation strategies. The analysis revealed that the simulated biases resulted in expected subgroup performance disparities when the CNN was trained on the synthetic datasets. Moreover, reweighing was identified as the most successful bias mitigation strategy for this setup, and we demonstrated how explainable AI methods can aid in investigating the manifestation of bias in the model using this framework. Developing fair AI models is a considerable challenge given that many and often unknown sources of biases can be present in medical imaging datasets. In this work, we present a novel methodology to objectively study the impact of biases and mitigation strategies on deep learning pipelines, which can support the development of clinical AI that is robust and responsible.

We propose a prognostic stratum matching framework that addresses the deficiencies of Randomized trial data subgroup analysis and transforms ObservAtional Data to be used as if they were randomized, thus paving the road for precision medicine. Our approach counters the effects of unobserved confounding in observational data by correcting the estimated probabilities of the outcome under a treatment through a novel two-step process. These probabilities are then used to train Optimal Policy Trees (OPTs), which are decision trees that optimally assign treatments to subgroups of patients based on their characteristics. This facilitates the creation of clinically intuitive treatment recommendations. We applied our framework to observational data of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) and validated the OPTs in an external cohort using the sensitivity and specificity metrics. We show that these recommendations outperformed those of experts in GIST. We further applied the same framework to randomized clinical trial (RCT) data of patients with extremity sarcomas. Remarkably, despite the initial trial results suggesting that all patients should receive treatment, our framework, after addressing imbalances in patient distribution due to the trial's small sample size, identified through the OPTs a subset of patients with unique characteristics who may not require treatment. Again, we successfully validated our recommendations in an external cohort.