This paper presents a systematic literature review (SLR) on the explainability and interpretability of machine learning (ML) models within the context of predictive process mining, using the PRISMA framework. Given the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and ML systems, understanding the "black-box" nature of these technologies has become increasingly critical. Focusing specifically on the domain of process mining, this paper delves into the challenges of interpreting ML models trained with complex business process data. We differentiate between intrinsically interpretable models and those that require post-hoc explanation techniques, providing a comprehensive overview of the current methodologies and their applications across various application domains. Through a rigorous bibliographic analysis, this research offers a detailed synthesis of the state of explainability and interpretability in predictive process mining, identifying key trends, challenges, and future directions. Our findings aim to equip researchers and practitioners with a deeper understanding of how to develop and implement more trustworthy, transparent, and effective intelligent systems for predictive process analytics.

Twitter as one of the most popular social networks, offers a means for communication and online discourse, which unfortunately has been the target of bots and fake accounts, leading to the manipulation and spreading of false information. Towards this end, we gather a challenging, multilingual dataset of social discourse on Twitter, originating from 9M users regarding the recent Russo-Ukrainian war, in order to detect the bot accounts and the conversation involving them. We collect the ground truth for our dataset through the Twitter API suspended accounts collection, containing approximately 343K of bot accounts and 8M of normal users. Additionally, we use a dataset provided by Botometer-V3 with 1,777 Varol, 483 German accounts, and 1,321 US accounts. Besides the publicly available datasets, we also manage to collect 2 independent datasets around popular discussion topics of the 2022 energy crisis and the 2022 conspiracy discussions. Both of the datasets were labeled according to the Twitter suspension mechanism. We build a novel ML model for bot detection using the state-of-the-art XGBoost model. We combine the model with a high volume of labeled tweets according to the Twitter suspension mechanism ground truth. This requires a limited set of profile features allowing labeling of the dataset in different time periods from the collection, as it is independent of the Twitter API. In comparison with Botometer our methodology achieves an average 11% higher ROC-AUC score over two real-case scenario datasets.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

In many real-world problems, there is a limited set of training data, but an abundance of unlabeled data. We propose a new method, Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs), that uses unlabeled data to estimate epistemic uncertainty in high-dimensional problems. A GPN is a generative model that, given a prior distribution over functions, approximates the posterior distribution directly by regularizing the network towards samples from the prior. We prove theoretically that our method indeed approximates the Bayesian posterior and show empirically that it improves epistemic uncertainty estimation and scalability over competing methods.

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions. However, explicit inference over neural network parameters makes it difficult to incorporate meaningful prior information about the data-generating process into the model. In this paper, we pursue an alternative approach. Recognizing that the primary object of interest in most settings is the distribution over functions induced by the posterior distribution over neural network parameters, we frame Bayesian inference in neural networks explicitly as inferring a posterior distribution over functions and propose a scalable function-space variational inference method that allows incorporating prior information and results in reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We show that the proposed method leads to state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation and predictive performance on a range of prediction tasks and demonstrate that it performs well on a challenging safety-critical medical diagnosis task in which reliable uncertainty estimation is essential.

Nature is an amorphous concept. Yet, it is essential for the planet's well-being to understand how the economy interacts with it. To address the growing demand for information on corporate nature disclosure, we provide datasets and classifiers to detect nature communication by companies. We ground our approach in the guidelines of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). Particularly, we focus on the specific dimensions of water, forest, and biodiversity. For each dimension, we create an expert-annotated dataset with 2,200 text samples and train classifier models. Furthermore, we show that nature communication is more prevalent in hotspot areas and directly effected industries like agriculture and utilities. Our approach is the first to respond to calls to assess corporate nature communication on a large scale.

Real-time analytics and decision-making require online anomaly detection (OAD) to handle drifts in data streams efficiently and effectively. Unfortunately, existing approaches are often constrained by their limited detection capacity and slow adaptation to evolving data streams, inhibiting their efficacy and efficiency in handling concept drift, which is a major challenge in evolving data streams. In this paper, we introduce METER, a novel dynamic concept adaptation framework that introduces a new paradigm for OAD. METER addresses concept drift by first training a base detection model on historical data to capture recurring central concepts, and then learning to dynamically adapt to new concepts in data streams upon detecting concept drift. Particularly, METER employs a novel dynamic concept adaptation technique that leverages a hypernetwork to dynamically generate the parameter shift of the base detection model, providing a more effective and efficient solution than conventional retraining or fine-tuning approaches. Further, METER incorporates a lightweight drift detection controller, underpinned by evidential deep learning, to support robust and interpretable concept drift detection. We conduct an extensive experimental evaluation, and the results show that METER significantly outperforms existing OAD approaches in various application scenarios.

The aim of the work presented in this paper is to develop and evaluate an integrated system that provides automated lecture style evaluation, allowing teachers to get instant feedback related to the goodness of their lecturing style. The proposed system aims to promote improvement of lecture quality, that could upgrade the overall student learning experience. The proposed application utilizes specific measurable biometric characteristics, such as facial expressions, body activity, speech rate and intonation, hand movement, and facial pose, extracted from a video showing the lecturer from the audience point of view. Measurable biometric features extracted during a lecture are combined to provide teachers with a score reflecting lecture style quality both at frame rate and by providing lecture quality metrics for the whole lecture. The acceptance of the proposed lecture style evaluation system was evaluated by chief education officers, teachers and students regarding the functionality, usefulness of the application, and possible improvements. The results indicate that participants found the application novel and useful in providing automated feedback regarding lecture quality. Furthermore, the performance evaluation of the proposed system was compared with the performance of humans in the task of lecture style evaluation. Results indicate that the proposed system not only achieves similar performance to human observers, but in some cases, it outperforms them.

Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurological disease characterized by difficulties with social interaction, communication, and repetitive activities. While its primary origin lies in genetics, early detection is crucial, and leveraging machine learning offers a promising avenue for a faster and more cost-effective diagnosis. This study employs diverse machine learning methods to identify crucial ASD traits, aiming to enhance and automate the diagnostic process. We study eight state-of-the-art classification models to determine their effectiveness in ASD detection. We evaluate the models using accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F1-score, area under the curve (AUC), kappa, and log loss metrics to find the best classifier for these binary datasets. Among all the classification models, for the children dataset, the SVM and LR models achieve the highest accuracy of 100% and for the adult dataset, the LR model produces the highest accuracy of 97.14%. Our proposed ANN model provides the highest accuracy of 94.24% for the new combined dataset when hyperparameters are precisely tuned for each model. As almost all classification models achieve high accuracy which utilize true labels, we become interested in delving into five popular clustering algorithms to understand model behavior in scenarios without true labels. We calculate Normalized Mutual Information (NMI), Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), and Silhouette Coefficient (SC) metrics to select the best clustering models. Our evaluation finds that spectral clustering outperforms all other benchmarking clustering models in terms of NMI and ARI metrics while demonstrating comparability to the optimal SC achieved by k-means. The implemented code is available at GitHub.

In this paper, we study the estimation of the $k$-dimensional sparse principal subspace of covariance matrix $\Sigma$ in the high-dimensional setting. We aim to recover the oracle principal subspace solution, i.e., the principal subspace estimator obtained assuming the true support is known a priori. To this end, we propose a family of estimators based on the semidefinite relaxation of sparse PCA with novel regularizations. In particular, under a weak assumption on the magnitude of the population projection matrix, one estimator within this family exactly recovers the true support with high probability, has exact rank-$k$, and attains a $\sqrt{s/n}$ statistical rate of convergence with $s$ being the subspace sparsity level and $n$ the sample size. Compared to existing support recovery results for sparse PCA, our approach does not hinge on the spiked covariance model or the limited correlation condition. As a complement to the first estimator that enjoys the oracle property, we prove that, another estimator within the family achieves a sharper statistical rate of convergence than the standard semidefinite relaxation of sparse PCA, even when the previous assumption on the magnitude of the projection matrix is violated. We validate the theoretical results by numerical experiments on synthetic datasets.