Accuracy
Evaluating Echo State Network for Parkinson's Disease Prediction using Voice Features
Hosseininian, Seyedeh Zahra Seyedi, Tajari, Ahmadreza, Ghalehnoie, Mohsen, Alfi, Alireza
Parkinson's disease (PD) is a debilitating neurological disorder that necessitates precise and early diagnosis for effective patient care. This study aims to develop a diagnostic model capable of achieving both high accuracy and minimizing false negatives, a critical factor in clinical practice. Given the limited training data, a feature selection strategy utilizing ANOVA is employed to identify the most informative features. Subsequently, various machine learning methods, including Echo State Networks (ESN), Random Forest, k-nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Classifier, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Decision Tree, are employed and thoroughly evaluated. The statistical analyses of the results highlight ESN's exceptional performance, showcasing not only superior accuracy but also the lowest false negative rate among all methods. Consistently, statistical data indicates that the ESN method consistently maintains a false negative rate of less than 8% in 83% of cases. ESN's capacity to strike a delicate balance between diagnostic precision and minimizing misclassifications positions it as an exemplary choice for PD diagnosis, especially in scenarios characterized by limited data. This research marks a significant step towards more efficient and reliable PD diagnosis, with potential implications for enhanced patient outcomes and healthcare dynamics.
Deep Learning for Gamma-Ray Bursts: A data driven event framework for X/Gamma-Ray analysis in space telescopes
The HERMES (High Energy Rapid Modular Ensemble of Satellites) Pathfinder mission serves as an in-orbit demonstration of a constellation of nanosatellites whose primary scientific purpose is to discover intense high-energy transients, such as gamma-ray bursts, across a broad energy range (few keV to few MeV) with unparalleled temporal precision and exact localisation. By 2024, the first constellation of six nanosatellites is expected to be launched. To fully exploit satellite data and allow faint astronomical events to emerge, a precise estimation of satellite background count rates is required to determine whether the event is statistically valid or not. The dynamics of the background are related to the satellite's orbital information, which varies in the order of minutes, potentially hiding long transient events. This work introduces two main contributions I have brought ahead; first a novel background estimator is presented that could potentially be fitted to any type of X/Gamma-ray satellite space telescope, capable of capturing long-term dynamics and accurate enough to detect faint transients. This estimator is built using a Neural Network and tested on data from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope's Gamma Burst Monitor (GBM). As a second objective, it is employed a trigger algorithm, called FOCuS (Functional Online CUSUM), to extract events from the background using the background estimator. The resulting framework, DeepGRB, can identify astronomical events that are both present and absent from the Fermi-GBM catalog. The analysis of the discovered events reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the framework.
Automatic Time Signature Determination for New Scores Using Lyrics for Latent Rhythmic Structure
Liao, Callie C., Liao, Duoduo, Guessford, Jesse
There has recently been a sharp increase in interest in Artificial Intelligence-Generated Content (AIGC). Despite this, musical components such as time signatures have not been studied sufficiently to form an algorithmic determination approach for new compositions, especially lyrical songs. This is likely because of the neglect of musical details, which is critical for constructing a robust framework. Specifically, time signatures establish the fundamental rhythmic structure for almost all aspects of a song, including the phrases and notes. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that only uses lyrics as input to automatically generate a fitting time signature for lyrical songs and uncover the latent rhythmic structure utilizing explainable machine learning models. In particular, we devise multiple methods that are associated with discovering lyrical patterns and creating new features that simultaneously contain lyrical, rhythmic, and statistical information. In this approach, the best of our experimental results reveal a 97.6% F1 score and a 0.996 Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) score. In conclusion, our research directly generates time signatures from lyrics automatically for new scores utilizing machine learning, which is an innovative idea that approaches an understudied component of musicology and therefore contributes significantly to the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) music generation.
Data-Driven Estimation of the False Positive Rate of the Bayes Binary Classifier via Soft Labels
Jeong, Minoh, Cardone, Martina, Dytso, Alex
Classification is a fundamental task in many applications on which data-driven methods have shown outstanding performances. However, it is challenging to determine whether such methods have achieved the optimal performance. This is mainly because the best achievable performance is typically unknown and hence, effectively estimating it is of prime importance. In this paper, we consider binary classification problems and we propose an estimator for the false positive rate (FPR) of the Bayes classifier, that is, the optimal classifier with respect to accuracy, from a given dataset. Our method utilizes soft labels, or real-valued labels, which are gaining significant traction thanks to their properties. We thoroughly examine various theoretical properties of our estimator, including its consistency, unbiasedness, rate of convergence, and variance. To enhance the versatility of our estimator beyond soft labels, we also consider noisy labels, which encompass binary labels. For noisy labels, we develop effective FPR estimators by leveraging a denoising technique and the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Due to the symmetry of the problem, our results can be readily applied to estimate the false negative rate of the Bayes classifier.
Beyond Eviction Prediction: Leveraging Local Spatiotemporal Public Records to Inform Action
Mashiat, Tasfia, DiChristofano, Alex, Fowler, Patrick J., Das, Sanmay
There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.
A Statistical Framework for Measuring AI Reliance
Guo, Ziyang, Wu, Yifan, Hartline, Jason, Hullman, Jessica
Humans frequently make decisions with the aid of artificially intelligent (AI) systems. A common pattern is for the AI to recommend an action to the human who retains control over the final decision. Researchers have identified ensuring that a human has appropriate reliance on an AI as a critical component of achieving complementary performance. We argue that the current definition of appropriate reliance used in such research lacks formal statistical grounding and can lead to contradictions. We propose a formal definition of reliance, based on statistical decision theory, which separates the concepts of reliance as the probability the decision-maker follows the AI's prediction from challenges a human may face in differentiating the signals and forming accurate beliefs about the situation. Our definition gives rise to a framework that can be used to guide the design and interpretation of studies on human-AI complementarity and reliance. Using recent AI-advised decision making studies from literature, we demonstrate how our framework can be used to separate the loss due to mis-reliance from the loss due to not accurately differentiating the signals. We evaluate these losses by comparing to a baseline and a benchmark for complementary performance defined by the expected payoff achieved by a rational agent facing the same decision task as the behavioral agents.
Deep Learning with Information Fusion and Model Interpretation for Health Monitoring of Fetus based on Long-term Prenatal Electronic Fetal Heart Rate Monitoring Data
Lin, Zenghui, Liu, Xintong, Wang, Nan, Li, Ruichen, Liu, Qingao, Ma, Jingying, Wang, Liwei, Wang, Yan, Hong, Shenda
Long-term fetal heart rate (FHR) monitoring during the antepartum period, increasingly popularized by electronic FHR monitoring, represents a growing approach in FHR monitoring. This kind of continuous monitoring, in contrast to the short-term one, collects an extended period of fetal heart data. This offers a more comprehensive understanding of fetus's conditions. However, the interpretation of long-term antenatal fetal heart monitoring is still in its early stages, lacking corresponding clinical standards. Furthermore, the substantial amount of data generated by continuous monitoring imposes a significant burden on clinical work when analyzed manually. To address above challenges, this study develops an automatic analysis system named LARA (Long-term Antepartum Risk Analysis system) for continuous FHR monitoring, combining deep learning and information fusion methods. LARA's core is a well-established convolutional neural network (CNN) model. It processes long-term FHR data as input and generates a Risk Distribution Map (RDM) and Risk Index (RI) as the analysis results. We evaluate LARA on inner test dataset, the performance metrics are as follows: AUC 0.872, accuracy 0.816, specificity 0.811, sensitivity 0.806, precision 0.271, and F1 score 0.415. In our study, we observe that long-term FHR monitoring data with higher RI is more likely to result in adverse outcomes (p=0.0021). In conclusion, this study introduces LARA, the first automated analysis system for long-term FHR monitoring, initiating the further explorations into its clinical value in the future.
Optimal Sparse Survival Trees
Zhang, Rui, Xin, Rui, Seltzer, Margo, Rudin, Cynthia
Interpretability is crucial for doctors, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology corporations to analyze and make decisions for high stakes problems that involve human health. Tree-based methods have been widely adopted for \textit{survival analysis} due to their appealing interpretablility and their ability to capture complex relationships. However, most existing methods to produce survival trees rely on heuristic (or greedy) algorithms, which risk producing sub-optimal models. We present a dynamic-programming-with-bounds approach that finds provably-optimal sparse survival tree models, frequently in only a few seconds.
IM-IAD: Industrial Image Anomaly Detection Benchmark in Manufacturing
Xie, Guoyang, Wang, Jinbao, Liu, Jiaqi, Lyu, Jiayi, Liu, Yong, Wang, Chengjie, Zheng, Feng, Jin, Yaochu
Image anomaly detection (IAD) is an emerging and vital computer vision task in industrial manufacturing (IM). Recently, many advanced algorithms have been reported, but their performance deviates considerably with various IM settings. We realize that the lack of a uniform IM benchmark is hindering the development and usage of IAD methods in real-world applications. In addition, it is difficult for researchers to analyze IAD algorithms without a uniform benchmark. To solve this problem, we propose a uniform IM benchmark, for the first time, to assess how well these algorithms perform, which includes various levels of supervision (unsupervised versus fully supervised), learning paradigms (few-shot, continual and noisy label), and efficiency (memory usage and inference speed). Then, we construct a comprehensive image anomaly detection benchmark (IM-IAD), which includes 19 algorithms on seven major datasets with a uniform setting. Extensive experiments (17,017 total) on IM-IAD provide in-depth insights into IAD algorithm redesign or selection. Moreover, the proposed IM-IAD benchmark challenges existing algorithms and suggests future research directions. To foster reproducibility and accessibility, the source code of IM-IAD is uploaded on the website, https://github.com/M-3LAB/IM-IAD.
Bloom-epistemic and sentiment analysis hierarchical classification in course discussion forums
Toba, H., Hernita, Y. T., Ayub, M., Wijanto, M. C.
Online discussion forums are widely used for active textual interaction between lecturers and students, and to see how the students have progressed in a learning process. The objective of this study is to compare appropriate machine-learning models to assess sentiments and Bloom\'s epistemic taxonomy based on textual comments in educational discussion forums. Our proposed method is called the hierarchical approach of Bloom-Epistemic and Sentiment Analysis (BE-Sent). The research methodology consists of three main steps. The first step is the data collection from the internal discussion forum and YouTube comments of a Web Programming channel. The next step is text preprocessing to annotate the text and clear unimportant words. Furthermore, with the text dataset that has been successfully cleaned, sentiment analysis and epistemic categorization will be done in each sentence of the text. Sentiment analysis is divided into three categories: positive, negative, and neutral. Bloom\'s epistemic is divided into six categories: remembering, understanding, applying, analyzing, evaluating, and creating. This research has succeeded in producing a course learning subsystem that assesses opinions based on text reviews of discussion forums according to the category of sentiment and epistemic analysis.