Link prediction is the task that predicts links of a network that are not directly visible, with profound applications in biological, social, and other complex systems. Despite intensive utilization of the topological feature in this task, it is unclear to what extent a feature can be leveraged to infer missing links. Here, we aim to unveil the capability of a topological feature in link prediction by identifying its prediction performance upper bound. We introduce a theoretical framework that is compatible with different indexes to gauge the feature, different prediction approaches to utilize the feature, and different metrics to quantify the prediction performance. The maximum capability of a topological feature follows a simple yet theoretically validated expression, which only depends on the extent to which the feature is held in missing and nonexistent links. Because a family of indexes based on the same feature shares the same upper bound, the potential of all others can be estimated from one single index. Furthermore, a feature's capability is lifted in the supervised prediction, which can be mathematically quantified, allowing us to estimate the benefit of applying machine learning algorithms. The universality of the pattern uncovered is empirically verified by 550 structurally diverse networks. The findings have applications in feature and method selection, and shed light on network characteristics that make a topological feature effective in link prediction.

Evaluating the in-context learning classification performance of language models poses challenges due to small dataset sizes, extensive prompt-selection using the validation set, and intentionally difficult tasks that lead to near-random performance. The standard random baseline -- the expected accuracy of guessing labels uniformly at random -- is stable when the evaluation set is used only once or when the dataset is large. We account for the common practice of validation set reuse and existing small datasets with a stronger random baseline: the expected maximum accuracy across multiple random classifiers. When choosing the best prompt demonstrations across six quantized language models applied to 16 BIG-bench Lite tasks, more than 20\% of the few-shot results that exceed the standard baseline do not exceed this stronger random baseline. When held-out test sets are available, this stronger baseline is also a better predictor of held-out performance than the standard baseline, avoiding unnecessary test set evaluations. This maximum random baseline provides an easily calculated drop-in replacement for the standard baseline.

This study introduces RT-HMD, a Hardware-based Malware Detector (HMD) for mobile devices, that refines malware representation in segmented time-series through a Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) approach. We address the mislabeling issue in real-time HMDs, where benign segments in malware time-series incorrectly inherit malware labels, leading to increased false positives. Utilizing the proposed Malicious Discriminative Score within the MIL framework, RT-HMD effectively identifies localized malware behaviors, thereby improving the predictive accuracy. Empirical analysis, using a hardware telemetry dataset collected from a mobile platform across 723 benign and 1033 malware samples, shows a 5% precision boost while maintaining recall, outperforming baselines affected by mislabeled benign segments.

Do vision-language models (VLMs) pre-trained to caption an image of a "durian" learn visual concepts such as "brown" (color) and "spiky" (texture) at the same time? We aim to answer this question as visual concepts learned "for free" would enable wide applications such as neuro-symbolic reasoning or human-interpretable object classification. We assume that the visual concepts, if captured by pre-trained VLMs, can be extracted by their vision-language interface with text-based concept prompts. We observe that recent works prompting VLMs with concepts often differ in their strategies to define and evaluate the visual concepts, leading to conflicting conclusions. We propose a new concept definition strategy based on two observations: First, certain concept prompts include shortcuts that recognize correct concepts for wrong reasons; Second, multimodal information (e.g. visual discriminativeness, and textual knowledge) should be leveraged when selecting the concepts. Our proposed concept discovery and learning (CDL) framework is thus designed to identify a diverse list of generic visual concepts (e.g. "spiky" as opposed to "spiky durian"), which are ranked and selected based on visual and language mutual information. We carefully design quantitative and human evaluations of the discovered concepts on six diverse visual recognition datasets, which confirm that pre-trained VLMs do learn visual concepts that provide accurate and thorough descriptions for the recognized objects. All code and models are publicly released.

LiDAR-based Moving Object Segmentation (MOS) aims to locate and segment moving objects in point clouds of the current scan using motion information from previous scans. Despite the promising results achieved by previous MOS methods, several key issues, such as the weak coupling of temporal and spatial information, still need further study. In this paper, we propose a novel LiDAR-based 3D Moving Object Segmentation with Motion-aware State Space Model, termed MambaMOS. Firstly, we develop a novel embedding module, the Time Clue Bootstrapping Embedding (TCBE), to enhance the coupling of temporal and spatial information in point clouds and alleviate the issue of overlooked temporal clues. Secondly, we introduce the Motion-aware State Space Model (MSSM) to endow the model with the capacity to understand the temporal correlations of the same object across different time steps. Specifically, MSSM emphasizes the motion states of the same object at different time steps through two distinct temporal modeling and correlation steps. We utilize an improved state space model to represent these motion differences, significantly modeling the motion states. Finally, extensive experiments on the SemanticKITTI-MOS and KITTI-Road benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed MambaMOS achieves state-of-the-art performance. The source code of this work will be made publicly available at https://github.com/Terminal-K/MambaMOS.

Numerous methods have been proposed for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers to detect faulty GNSS signals. One such fault detection and exclusion (FDE) method is based on the mathematical concept of Euclidean distance matrices (EDMs). This paper outlines a greedy approach that uses an improved Euclidean distance matrix-based fault detection and exclusion algorithm. The novel greedy EDM FDE method implements a new fault detection test statistic and fault exclusion strategy that drastically simplifies the complexity of the algorithm over previous work. To validate the novel greedy EDM FDE algorithm, we created a simulated dataset using receiver locations from around the globe. The simulated dataset allows us to verify our results on 2,601 different satellite geometries. Additionally, we tested the greedy EDM FDE algorithm using a real-world dataset from seven different android phones. Across both the simulated and real-world datasets, the Python implementation of the greedy EDM FDE algorithm is shown to be computed an order of magnitude more rapidly than a comparable greedy residual FDE method while obtaining similar fault exclusion accuracy. We provide discussion on the comparative time complexities of greedy EDM FDE, greedy residual FDE, and solution separation. We also explain potential modifications to greedy residual FDE that can be added to alter performance characteristics.

Model evaluation is of crucial importance in modern statistics application. The construction of ROC and calculation of AUC have been widely used for binary classification evaluation. Recent research generalizing the ROC/AUC analysis to multi-class classification has problems in at least one of the four areas: 1. failure to provide sensible plots 2. being sensitive to imbalanced data 3. unable to specify mis-classification cost and 4. unable to provide evaluation uncertainty quantification. Borrowing from a binomial matrix factorization model, we provide an evaluation metric summarizing the pair-wise multi-class True Positive Rate (TPR) and False Positive Rate (FPR) with one-dimensional vector representation. Visualization on the representation vector measures the relative speed of increment between TPR and FPR across all the classes pairs, which in turns provides a ROC plot for the multi-class counterpart. An integration over those factorized vector provides a binary AUC-equivalent summary on the classifier performance. Mis-clasification weights specification and bootstrapped confidence interval are also enabled to accommodate a variety of of evaluation criteria. To support our findings, we conducted extensive simulation studies and compared our method to the pair-wise averaged AUC statistics on benchmark datasets.

Effective causal discovery is essential for learning the causal graph from observational data. The linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) operates under the assumption of a linear data generating process with non-Gaussian noise in determining the causal graph. Its assumption of unmeasured confounders being absent, however, poses practical limitations. In response, empirical research has shown that the reformulation of LiNGAM as a shortest path problem (LiNGAM-SPP) addresses this limitation. Within LiNGAM-SPP, mutual information is chosen to serve as the measure of independence. A challenge is introduced - parameter tuning is now needed due to its reliance on kNN mutual information estimators. The paper proposes a threefold enhancement to the LiNGAM-SPP framework. First, the need for parameter tuning is eliminated by using the pairwise likelihood ratio in lieu of kNN-based mutual information. This substitution is validated on a general data generating process and benchmark real-world data sets, outperforming existing methods especially when given a larger set of features. The incorporation of prior knowledge is then enabled by a node-skipping strategy implemented on the graph representation of all causal orderings to eliminate violations based on the provided input of relative orderings. Flexibility relative to existing approaches is achieved. Last among the three enhancements is the utilization of the distribution of paths in the graph representation of all causal orderings. From this, crucial properties of the true causal graph such as the presence of unmeasured confounders and sparsity may be inferred. To some extent, the expected performance of the causal discovery algorithm may be predicted. The refinements above advance the practicality and performance of LiNGAM-SPP, showcasing the potential of graph-search-based methodologies in advancing causal discovery.

Medical imaging has been used for diagnosis of various conditions, making it one of the most powerful resources for effective patient care. Due to widespread availability, low cost, and low radiation, chest X-ray is one of the most sought after radiology examination for the diagnosis of various thoracic diseases. Due to advancements in medical imaging technologies and increasing patient load, current radiology workflow faces various challenges including increasing backlogs, working long hours, and increase in diagnostic errors. An automated computer-aided diagnosis system that can interpret chest X-rays to augment radiologists by providing actionable insights has potential to provide second opinion to radiologists, highlight relevant regions in the image, in turn expediting clinical workflow, reducing diagnostic errors, and improving patient care. In this study, we applied a novel architecture augmenting the DenseNet121 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with multi-head self-attention mechanism using transformer, namely SA-DenseNet121, that can identify multiple thoracic diseases in chest X-rays. We conducted experiments on four of the largest chest X-ray datasets, namely, ChestX-ray14, CheXpert, MIMIC-CXR-JPG, and IU-CXR. Experimental results in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC-ROC) shows that augmenting CNN with self-attention has potential in diagnosing different thoracic diseases from chest X-rays. The proposed methodology has the potential to support the reading workflow, improve efficiency, and reduce diagnostic errors.

The escalating prevalence of diabetes globally underscores the need for diabetes management. Recent research highlights the growing focus on digital biomarkers in diabetes management, with innovations in computational frameworks and noninvasive monitoring techniques using personalized glucose metrics. However, they predominantly focus on insulin dosing and specific glucose values, or with limited attention given to overall glycemic control. This leaves a gap in expanding the scope of digital biomarkers for overall glycemic control in diabetes management. To address such a research gap, we propose GluMarker -- an end-to-end framework for modeling digital biomarkers using broader factors sources to predict glycemic control. Through the assessment and refinement of various machine learning baselines, GluMarker achieves state-of-the-art on Anderson's dataset in predicting next-day glycemic control. Moreover, our research identifies key digital biomarkers for the next day's glycemic control prediction. These identified biomarkers are instrumental in illuminating the daily factors that influence glycemic management, offering vital insights for diabetes care.