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Point processes with event time uncertainty

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Point processes are widely used statistical models for uncovering the temporal patterns in dependent event data. In many applications, the event time cannot be observed exactly, calling for the incorporation of time uncertainty into the modeling of point process data. In this work, we introduce a framework to model time-uncertain point processes possibly on a network. We start by deriving the formulation in the continuous-time setting under a few assumptions motivated by application scenarios. After imposing a time grid, we obtain a discrete-time model that facilitates inference and can be computed by first-order optimization methods such as Gradient Descent or Variation inequality (VI) using batch-based Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). The parameter recovery guarantee is proved for VI inference at an $O(1/k)$ convergence rate using $k$ SGD steps. Our framework handles non-stationary processes by modeling the inference kernel as a matrix (or tensor on a network) and it covers the stationary process, such as the classical Hawkes process, as a special case. We experimentally show that the proposed approach outperforms previous General Linear model (GLM) baselines on simulated and real data and reveals meaningful causal relations on a Sepsis-associated Derangements dataset.


OwMatch: Conditional Self-Labeling with Consistency for Open-World Semi-Supervised Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) offers a robust framework for harnessing the potential of unannotated data. Traditionally, SSL mandates that all classes possess labeled instances. However, the emergence of open-world SSL (OwSSL) introduces a more practical challenge, wherein unlabeled data may encompass samples from unseen classes. This scenario leads to misclassification of unseen classes as known ones, consequently undermining classification accuracy. To overcome this challenge, this study revisits two methodologies from self-supervised and semi-supervised learning, self-labeling and consistency, tailoring them to address the OwSSL problem. Specifically, we propose an effective framework called OwMatch, combining conditional self-labeling and open-world hierarchical thresholding. Theoretically, we analyze the estimation of class distribution on unlabeled data through rigorous statistical analysis, thus demonstrating that OwMatch can ensure the unbiasedness of the self-label assignment estimator with reliability. Comprehensive empirical analyses demonstrate that our method yields substantial performance enhancements across both known and unknown classes in comparison to previous studies. Code is available at https://github.com/niusj03/OwMatch.


Online Graph Learning via Time-Vertex Adaptive Filters: From Theory to Cardiac Fibrillation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph Signal Processing (GSP) provides a powerful framework for analysing complex, interconnected systems by modelling data as signals on graphs. Recent advances in GSP have enabled the learning of graph structures from observed signals, but these methods often struggle with time-varying systems and real-time applications. Adaptive filtering techniques, while effective for online learning, have seen limited application in graph topology estimation from a GSP perspective. To this end, we introduce AdaCGP, an online algorithm for adaptive estimation of the Graph Shift Operator (GSO) from multivariate time series. The GSO is estimated from an adaptive time-vertex autoregressive model through recursive update formulae designed to address sparsity, shift-invariance and bias. Through simulations, we show that AdaCGP performs consistently well across various graph topologies, and achieves improvements in excess of 82% for GSO estimation compared to baseline adaptive vector autoregressive models. In addition, our online variable splitting approach for enforcing sparsity enables near-perfect precision in identifying causal connections while maintaining low false positive rates upon optimisation of the forecast error. Finally, AdaCGP's ability to track changes in graph structure is demonstrated on recordings of ventricular fibrillation dynamics in response to an anti-arrhythmic drug. AdaCGP is shown to be able to identify the stability of critical conduction patterns that may be maintaining the arrhythmia in an intuitive way, together with its potential to support diagnosis and treatment strategies.


Optimizing Gastrointestinal Diagnostics: A CNN-Based Model for VCE Image Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, the diagnosis of gastrointestinal (GI) diseases has advanced greatly with the advent of high-tech video capsule endoscopy (VCE) technology, which allows for non-invasive observation of the digestive system. The MisaHub Capsule Vision Challenge encourages the development of vendor-independent artificial intelligence models that can autonomously classify GI anomalies from VCE images. This paper presents CNN architecture designed specifically for multiclass classification of ten gut pathologies, including angioectasia, bleeding, erosion, erythema, foreign bodies, lymphangiectasia, polyps, ulcers, and worms as well as their normal state.


Mitigating Matching Biases Through Score Calibration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Record matching, the task of identifying records that correspond to the same real-world entities across databases, is critical for data integration in domains like healthcare, finance, and e-commerce. While traditional record matching models focus on optimizing accuracy, fairness issues, such as demographic disparities in model performance, have attracted increasing attention. Biased outcomes in record matching can result in unequal error rates across demographic groups, raising ethical and legal concerns. Existing research primarily addresses fairness at specific decision thresholds, using bias metrics like Demographic Parity (DP), Equal Opportunity (EO), and Equalized Odds (EOD) differences. However, threshold-specific metrics may overlook cumulative biases across varying thresholds. In this paper, we adapt fairness metrics traditionally applied in regression models to evaluate cumulative bias across all thresholds in record matching. We propose a novel post-processing calibration method, leveraging optimal transport theory and Wasserstein barycenters, to balance matching scores across demographic groups. This approach treats any matching model as a black box, making it applicable to a wide range of models without access to their training data. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the calibration method in reducing demographic parity difference in matching scores. To address limitations in reducing EOD and EO differences, we introduce a conditional calibration method, which empirically achieves fairness across widely used benchmarks and state-of-the-art matching methods. This work provides a comprehensive framework for fairness-aware record matching, setting the foundation for more equitable data integration processes.


Privacy-Preserving Customer Churn Prediction Model in the Context of Telecommunication Industry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data is the main fuel of a successful machine learning model. A dataset may contain sensitive individual records e.g. personal health records, financial data, industrial information, etc. Training a model using this sensitive data has become a new privacy concern when someone uses third-party cloud computing. Trained models also suffer privacy attacks which leads to the leaking of sensitive information of the training data. This study is conducted to preserve the privacy of training data in the context of customer churn prediction modeling for the telecommunications industry (TCI). In this work, we propose a framework for privacy-preserving customer churn prediction (PPCCP) model in the cloud environment. We have proposed a novel approach which is a combination of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and adaptive Weight-of-Evidence (aWOE). Synthetic data is generated from GANs, and aWOE is applied on the synthetic training dataset before feeding the data to the classification algorithms. Our experiments were carried out using eight different machine learning (ML) classifiers on three openly accessible datasets from the telecommunication sector. We then evaluated the performance using six commonly employed evaluation metrics. In addition to presenting a data privacy analysis, we also performed a statistical significance test. The training and prediction processes achieve data privacy and the prediction classifiers achieve high prediction performance (87.1\% in terms of F-Measure for GANs-aWOE based Na\"{\i}ve Bayes model). In contrast to earlier studies, our suggested approach demonstrates a prediction enhancement of up to 28.9\% and 27.9\% in terms of accuracy and F-measure, respectively.


Building the Self-Improvement Loop: Error Detection and Correction in Goal-Oriented Semantic Communications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Error detection and correction are essential for ensuring robust and reliable operation in modern communication systems, particularly in complex transmission environments. However, discussions on these topics have largely been overlooked in semantic communication (SemCom), which focuses on transmitting meaning rather than symbols, leading to significant improvements in communication efficiency. Despite these advantages, semantic errors -- stemming from discrepancies between transmitted and received meanings -- present a major challenge to system reliability. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a comprehensive framework for detecting and correcting semantic errors in SemCom systems. We formally define semantic error, detection, and correction mechanisms, and identify key sources of semantic errors. To address these challenges, we develop a Gaussian process (GP)-based method for latent space monitoring to detect errors, alongside a human-in-the-loop reinforcement learning (HITL-RL) approach to optimize semantic model configurations using user feedback. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in mitigating semantic errors under various conditions, including adversarial attacks, input feature changes, physical channel variations, and user preference shifts. This work lays the foundation for more reliable and adaptive SemCom systems with robust semantic error management techniques.


OSAD: Open-Set Aircraft Detection in SAR Images

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current mainstream SAR image object detection methods still lack robustness when dealing with unknown objects in open environments. Open-set detection aims to enable detectors trained on a closed set to detect all known objects and identify unknown objects in open-set environments. The key challenges are how to improve the generalization to potential unknown objects and reduce the empirical classification risk of known categories under strong supervision. To address these challenges, a novel open-set aircraft detector for SAR images is proposed, named Open-Set Aircraft Detection (OSAD), which is equipped with three dedicated components: global context modeling (GCM), location quality-driven pseudo labeling generation (LPG), and prototype contrastive learning (PCL). GCM effectively enhances the network's representation of objects by attention maps which is formed through the capture of long sequential positional relationships. LPG leverages clues about object positions and shapes to optimize localization quality, avoiding overfitting to known category information and enhancing generalization to potential unknown objects. PCL employs prototype-based contrastive encoding loss to promote instance-level intra-class compactness and inter-class variance, aiming to minimize the overlap between known and unknown distributions and reduce the empirical classification risk of known categories. Extensive experiments have demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively detect unknown objects and exhibit competitive performance without compromising closed-set performance. The highest absolute gain which ranges from 0 to 18.36% can be achieved on the average precision of unknown objects.


Equitable Length of Stay Prediction for Patients with Learning Disabilities and Multiple Long-term Conditions Using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

People with learning disabilities have a higher mortality rate and premature deaths compared to the general public, as reported in published research in the UK and other countries. This study analyses hospitalisations of 9,618 patients identified with learning disabilities and long-term conditions for the population of Wales using electronic health record (EHR) data sources from the SAIL Databank. We describe the demographic characteristics, prevalence of long-term conditions, medication history, hospital visits, and lifestyle history for our study cohort, and apply machine learning models to predict the length of hospital stays for this cohort. The random forest (RF) model achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.759 (males) and 0.756 (females), a false negative rate of 0.224 (males) and 0.229 (females), and a balanced accuracy of 0.690 (males) and 0.689 (females). After examining model performance across ethnic groups, two bias mitigation algorithms (threshold optimization and the reductions algorithm using an exponentiated gradient) were applied to minimise performance discrepancies. The threshold optimizer algorithm outperformed the reductions algorithm, achieving lower ranges in false positive rate and balanced accuracy for the male cohort across the ethnic groups. This study demonstrates the potential of applying machine learning models with effective bias mitigation approaches on EHR data sources to enable equitable prediction of hospital stays by addressing data imbalances across groups.


DSDE: Using Proportion Estimation to Improve Model Selection for Out-of-Distribution Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model library is an effective tool for improving the performance of single-model Out-of-Distribution (OoD) detector, mainly through model selection and detector fusion. However, existing methods in the literature do not provide uncertainty quantification for model selection results. Additionally, the model ensemble process primarily focuses on controlling the True Positive Rate (TPR) while neglecting the False Positive Rate (FPR). In this paper, we emphasize the significance of the proportion of models in the library that identify the test sample as an OoD sample. This proportion holds crucial information and directly influences the error rate of OoD detection.To address this, we propose inverting the commonly-used sequential p-value strategies. We define the rejection region initially and then estimate the error rate. Furthermore, we introduce a novel perspective from change-point detection and propose an approach for proportion estimation with automatic hyperparameter selection. We name the proposed approach as DOS-Storey-based Detector Ensemble (DSDE). Experimental results on CIFAR10 and CIFAR100 demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in tackling OoD detection challenges. Specifically, the CIFAR10 experiments show that DSDE reduces the FPR from 11.07% to 3.31% compared to the top-performing single-model detector.