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Linear Discriminant Analysis in Credit Scoring: A Transparent Hybrid Model Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development of computing has made credit scoring approaches possible, with various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques becoming more and more valuable. While complex models yield more accurate predictions, their interpretability is often weakened, which is a concern for credit scoring that places importance on decision fairness. As features of the dataset are a crucial factor for the credit scoring system, we implement Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) as a feature reduction technique, which reduces the burden of the models complexity. We compared 6 different machine learning models, 1 deep learning model, and a hybrid model with and without using LDA. From the result, we have found our hybrid model, XG-DNN, outperformed other models with the highest accuracy of 99.45% and a 99% F1 score with LDA. Lastly, to interpret model decisions, we have applied 2 different explainable AI techniques named LIME (local) and Morris Sensitivity Analysis (global). Through this research, we showed how feature reduction techniques can be used without affecting the performance and explainability of the model, which can be very useful in resource-constrained settings to optimize the computational workload.


Demonstration Selection for In-Context Learning via Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Diversity in demonstration selection is crucial for enhancing model generalization, as it enables a broader coverage of structures and concepts. However, constructing an appropriate set of demonstrations has remained a focal point of research. This paper presents the Relevance-Diversity Enhanced Selection (RDES), an innovative approach that leverages reinforcement learning to optimize the selection of diverse reference demonstrations for text classification tasks using Large Language Models (LLMs), especially in few-shot prompting scenarios. RDES employs a Q-learning framework to dynamically identify demonstrations that maximize both diversity and relevance to the classification objective by calculating a diversity score based on label distribution among selected demonstrations. This method ensures a balanced representation of reference data, leading to improved classification accuracy. This methodology allows LLMs to leverage their inherent LLMs have demonstrated exceptional capabilities across capabilities for understanding and processing text, making a wide array of NLP tasks, including text annotation [1], them particularly suitable for tasks with limited labeled data. These However, the effectiveness of ICL is contingent upon the models leverage extensive corpora of textual data to learn rich selection of appropriate and representative demonstrations representations, which empower them to perform reasoning from the knowledge base to serve as contextual references with high accuracy [4]-[6]. This critical aspect of fewshot of these models continue to expand, enhancing their learning is often overlooked in existing literature [12], reasoning capabilities becomes increasingly crucial.


Machine Learning-based Android Intrusion Detection System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The android operating system is being installed in most of the smart devices. The introduction of intrusions in such operating systems is rising at a tremendous rate. With the introduction of such malicious data streams, the smart devices are being subjected to various attacks like Phishing, Spyware, SMS Fraud, Bots and Banking-Trojans and many such. The application of machine learning classification algorithms for the security of android APK files is used in this paper. Each apk data stream was marked to be either malicious or non malicious on the basis of different parameters. The machine learning classification techniques are then used to classify whether the newly installed applications' signature falls within the malicious or non-malicious domain. If it falls within the malicious category, appropriate action can be taken, and the Android operating system can be shielded against illegal activities.


Introducing the Large Medical Model: State of the art healthcare cost and risk prediction with transformers trained on patient event sequences

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With U.S. healthcare spending approaching $5T (NHE Fact Sheet 2024), and 25% of it estimated to be wasteful (Waste in the US the health care system: estimated costs and potential for savings, n.d.), the need to better predict risk and optimal patient care is evermore important. This paper introduces the Large Medical Model (LMM), a generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) designed to guide and predict the broad facets of patient care and healthcare administration. The model is trained on medical event sequences from over 140M longitudinal patient claims records with a specialized vocabulary built from medical terminology systems and demonstrates a superior capability to forecast healthcare costs and identify potential risk factors. Through experimentation and validation, we showcase the LMM's proficiency in not only in cost and risk predictions, but also in discerning intricate patterns within complex medical conditions and an ability to identify novel relationships in patient care. The LMM is able to improve both cost prediction by 14.1% over the best commercial models and chronic conditions prediction by 1.9% over the best transformer models in research predicting a broad set of conditions. The LMM is a substantial advancement in healthcare analytics, offering the potential to significantly enhance risk assessment, cost management, and personalized medicine.


Robust Multi-bit Text Watermark with LLM-based Paraphrasers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose an imperceptible multi-bit text watermark embedded by paraphrasing with LLMs. We fine-tune a pair of LLM paraphrasers that are designed to behave differently so that their paraphrasing difference reflected in the text semantics can be identified by a trained decoder. To embed our multi-bit watermark, we use two paraphrasers alternatively to encode the pre-defined binary code at the sentence level. Then we use a text classifier as the decoder to decode each bit of the watermark. Through extensive experiments, we show that our watermarks can achieve over 99.99\% detection AUC with small (1.1B) text paraphrasers while keeping the semantic information of the original sentence. More importantly, our pipeline is robust under word substitution and sentence paraphrasing perturbations and generalizes well to out-of-distributional data. We also show the stealthiness of our watermark with LLM-based evaluation. We open-source the code: https://github.com/xiaojunxu/multi-bit-text-watermark.


Good practices for evaluation of machine learning systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many development decisions affect the results obtained from ML experiments: training data, features, model architecture, hyperparameters, test data, etc. Among these aspects, arguably the most important design decisions are those that involve the evaluation procedure. This procedure is what determines whether the conclusions drawn from the experiments will or will not generalize to unseen data and whether they will be relevant to the application of interest. If the data is incorrectly selected, the wrong metric is chosen for evaluation or the significance of the comparisons between models is overestimated, conclusions may be misleading or result in suboptimal development decisions. To avoid such problems, the evaluation protocol should be very carefully designed before experimentation starts. In this work we discuss the main aspects involved in the design of the evaluation protocol: data selection, metric selection, and statistical significance. This document is not meant to be an exhaustive tutorial on each of these aspects. Instead, the goal is to explain the main guidelines that should be followed in each case. We include examples taken from the speech processing field, and provide a list of common mistakes related to each aspect.


Soft Checksums to Flag Untrustworthy Machine Learning Surrogate Predictions and Application to Atomic Physics Simulations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trained neural networks (NN) are attractive as surrogate models to replace costly calculations in physical simulations, but are often unknowingly applied to states not adequately represented in the training dataset. We present the novel technique of soft checksums for scientific machine learning, a general-purpose method to differentiate between trustworthy predictions with small errors on in-distribution (ID) data points, and untrustworthy predictions with large errors on out-of-distribution (OOD) data points. By adding a check node to the existing output layer, we train the model to learn the chosen checksum function encoded within the NN predictions and show that violations of this function correlate with high prediction errors. As the checksum function depends only on the NN predictions, we can calculate the checksum error for any prediction with a single forward pass, incurring negligible time and memory costs. Additionally, we find that incorporating the checksum function into the loss function and exposing the NN to OOD data points during the training process improves separation between ID and OOD predictions. By applying soft checksums to a physically complex and high-dimensional non-local thermodynamic equilibrium atomic physics dataset, we show that a well-chosen threshold checksum error can effectively separate ID and OOD predictions.


State Frequency Estimation for Anomaly Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many works have studied the efficacy of state machines for detecting anomalies within NetFlows. These works typically learn a model from unlabeled data and compute anomaly scores for arbitrary traces based on their likelihood of occurrence or how well they fit within the model. However, these methods do not dynamically adapt their scores based on the traces seen at test time. This becomes a problem when an adversary produces seemingly common traces in their attack, causing the model to miss the detection by assigning low anomaly scores. We propose SEQUENT, a new approach that uses the state visit frequency to adapt its scoring for anomaly detection dynamically. SEQUENT subsequently uses the scores to generate root causes for anomalies. These allow the grouping of alarms and simplify the analysis of anomalies. Our evaluation of SEQUENT on three NetFlow datasets indicates that our approach outperforms existing methods, demonstrating its effectiveness in detecting anomalies.


Detecting Redundant Health Survey Questions Using Language-agnostic BERT Sentence Embedding (LaBSE)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The goal of this work was to compute the semantic similarity among publicly available health survey questions in order to facilitate the standardization of survey-based Person-Generated Health Data (PGHD). We compiled various health survey questions authored in both English and Korean from the NIH CDE Repository, PROMIS, Korean public health agencies, and academic publications. Questions were drawn from various health lifelog domains. A randomized question pairing scheme was used to generate a Semantic Text Similarity (STS) dataset consisting of 1758 question pairs. Similarity scores between each question pair were assigned by two human experts. The tagged dataset was then used to build three classifiers featuring: Bag-of-Words, SBERT with BERT-based embeddings, and SBRET with LaBSE embeddings. The algorithms were evaluated using traditional contingency statistics. Among the three algorithms, SBERT-LaBSE demonstrated the highest performance in assessing question similarity across both languages, achieving an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curves of over 0.99. Additionally, it proved effective in identifying cross-lingual semantic similarities.The SBERT-LaBSE algorithm excelled at aligning semantically equivalent sentences across both languages but encountered challenges in capturing subtle nuances and maintaining computational efficiency. Future research should focus on testing with larger multilingual datasets and on calibrating and normalizing scores across the health lifelog domains to improve consistency. This study introduces the SBERT-LaBSE algorithm for calculating semantic similarity across two languages, showing it outperforms BERT-based models and the Bag of Words approach, highlighting its potential to improve semantic interoperability of survey-based PGHD across language barriers.


Utilizing Machine Learning Models to Predict Acute Kidney Injury in Septic Patients from MIMIC-III Database

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sepsis is a severe condition that causes the body to respond incorrectly to an infection. This reaction can subsequently cause organ failure, a major one being acute kidney injury (AKI). For septic patients, approximately 50% develop AKI, with a mortality rate above 40%. Creating models that can accurately predict AKI based on specific qualities of septic patients is crucial for early detection and intervention. Using medical data from septic patients during intensive care unit (ICU) admission from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care 3 (MIMIC-III) database, we extracted 3301 patients with sepsis, with 73% of patients developing AKI. The data was randomly divided into a training set (n = 1980, 40%), a test set (n = 661, 10%), and a validation set (n = 660, 50%). The proposed model was logistic regression, and it was compared against five baseline models: XGBoost, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and LightGBM. Area Under the Curve (AUC), Accuracy, F1-Score, and Recall were calculated for each model. After analysis, we were able to select 23 features to include in our model, the top features being urine output, maximum bilirubin, minimum bilirubin, weight, maximum blood urea nitrogen, and minimum estimated glomerular filtration rate. The logistic regression model performed the best, achieving an AUC score of 0.887 (95% CI: [0.861-0.915]), an accuracy of 0.817, an F1 score of 0.866, a recall score of 0.827, and a Brier score of 0.13. Compared to the best existing literature in this field, our model achieved an 8.57% improvement in AUC while using 13 fewer variables, showcasing its effectiveness in determining AKI in septic patients. While the features selected for predicting AKI in septic patients are similar to previous literature, the top features that influenced our model's performance differ.