Educational data mining (EDM) is a part of applied computing that focuses on automatically analyzing data from learning contexts. Early prediction for identifying at-risk students is a crucial and widely researched topic in EDM research. It enables instructors to support at-risk students to stay on track, preventing student dropout or failure. Previous studies have predicted students' learning performance to identify at-risk students by using machine learning on data collected from e-learning platforms. However, most studies aimed to identify at-risk students utilizing the entire course data after the course finished. This does not correspond to the real-world scenario that at-risk students may drop out before the course ends. To address this problem, we introduce an RNN-Attention-KD (knowledge distillation) framework to predict at-risk students early throughout a course. It leverages the strengths of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) in handling time-sequence data to predict students' performance at each time step and employs an attention mechanism to focus on relevant time steps for improved predictive accuracy. At the same time, KD is applied to compress the time steps to facilitate early prediction. In an empirical evaluation, RNN-Attention-KD outperforms traditional neural network models in terms of recall and F1-measure. For example, it obtained recall and F1-measure of 0.49 and 0.51 for Weeks 1--3 and 0.51 and 0.61 for Weeks 1--6 across all datasets from four years of a university course. Then, an ablation study investigated the contributions of different knowledge transfer methods (distillation objectives). We found that hint loss from the hidden layer of RNN and context vector loss from the attention module on RNN could enhance the model's prediction performance for identifying at-risk students. These results are relevant for EDM researchers employing deep learning models.

Language models have proven successful across a wide range of software engineering tasks, but their significant computational costs often hinder their practical adoption. To address this challenge, researchers have begun applying various compression strategies to improve the efficiency of language models for code. These strategies aim to optimize inference latency and memory usage, though often at the cost of reduced model effectiveness. However, there is still a significant gap in understanding how these strategies influence the efficiency and effectiveness of language models for code. Here, we empirically investigate the impact of three well-known compression strategies -- knowledge distillation, quantization, and pruning -- across three different classes of software engineering tasks: vulnerability detection, code summarization, and code search. Our findings reveal that the impact of these strategies varies greatly depending on the task and the specific compression method employed. Practitioners and researchers can use these insights to make informed decisions when selecting the most appropriate compression strategy, balancing both efficiency and effectiveness based on their specific needs.

Tree-based learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost are still the gold-standard prediction methods for tabular data. Feature importance measures are usually considered for feature selection as well as to assess the effect of features on the outcome variables in the model. This also applies to survey data, which are frequently encountered in the social sciences and official statistics. These types of datasets often present the challenge of missing values. The typical solution is to impute the missing data before applying the learning method. However, given the large number of possible imputation methods available, the question arises as to which should be chosen to achieve the 'best' reflection of feature importance and feature selection in subsequent analyses. In the present paper, we investigate this question in a survey-based simulation study for eight state-of-the art imputation methods and three learners. The imputation methods comprise listwise deletion, three MICE options, four \texttt{missRanger} options as well as the recently proposed mixGBoost imputation approach. As learners, we consider the two most common tree-based methods, Random Forest and XGBoost, and an interpretable linear model with regularization.

Text is a vehicle to convey information that reflects the writer's linguistic style and communicative patterns. By studying these attributes, we can discover latent insights about the author and their underlying message. This article uses such an approach to better understand patent applications and their inventors. While prior research focuses on patent metadata, we employ machine learning and natural language processing to extract hidden information from the words in patent applications. Through these methods, we find that inventor gender can often be identified from textual attributes - even without knowing the inventor's name. This ability to discern gender through text suggests that anonymized patent examination - often proposed as a solution to mitigate disparities in patent grant rates - may not fully address gendered outcomes in securing a patent. Our study also investigates whether objective features of a patent application can predict if it will be granted. Using a classifier algorithm, we correctly predicted whether a patent was granted over 60% of the time. Further analysis emphasized that writing style - like vocabulary and sentence complexity - disproportionately influenced grant predictions relative to other attributes such as inventor gender and subject matter keywords. Lastly, we examine whether women disproportionately invent in technological areas with higher rejection rates. Using a clustering algorithm, applications were allocated into groups with related subject matter. We found that 85% of female-dominated clusters have abnormally high rejection rates, compared to only 45% for male-dominated groupings. These findings highlight complex interactions between textual choices, gender, and success in securing a patent. They also raise questions about whether current proposals will be sufficient to achieve gender equity and efficiency in the patent system.

Here, nodes from the two-cluster Stochastic Block Model (SBM) are coupled with feature vectors, which are derived from a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) that corresponds to their respective node labels. With only a subset of the CSBM node labels accessible for training, our primary objective becomes the accurate classification of the remaining nodes. Venturing into the transductive learning landscape, we, for the first time, pinpoint the information-theoretical threshold for the exact recovery of all test nodes in CSBM. Concurrently, we design an optimal spectral estimator inspired by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with the training labels and essential data from both the adjacency matrix and feature vectors. We also evaluate the efficacy of graph ridge regression and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) on this synthetic dataset. Our findings underscore that graph ridge regression and GCN possess the ability to achieve the information threshold of exact recovery in a manner akin to the optimal estimator when using the optimal weighted self-loops. This highlights the potential role of feature learning in augmenting the proficiency of GCN, especially in the realm of semi-supervised learning.

Evaluating the performance of classifiers is critical in machine learning, particularly in high-stakes applications where the reliability of predictions can significantly impact decision-making. Traditional performance measures, such as accuracy and F-score, often fail to account for the uncertainty inherent in classifier predictions, leading to potentially misleading assessments. This paper introduces the Certainty Ratio ($C_\rho$), a novel metric designed to quantify the contribution of confident (certain) versus uncertain predictions to any classification performance measure. By integrating the Probabilistic Confusion Matrix ($CM^\star$) and decomposing predictions into certainty and uncertainty components, $C_\rho$ provides a more comprehensive evaluation of classifier reliability. Experimental results across 21 datasets and multiple classifiers, including Decision Trees, Naive-Bayes, 3-Nearest Neighbors, and Random Forests, demonstrate that $C_\rho$ reveals critical insights that conventional metrics often overlook. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating probabilistic information into classifier evaluation, offering a robust tool for researchers and practitioners seeking to improve model trustworthiness in complex environments.

Ranking entities such as algorithms, devices, methods, or models based on their performances, while accounting for application-specific preferences, is a challenge. To address this challenge, we establish the foundations of a universal theory for performance-based ranking. First, we introduce a rigorous framework built on top of both the probability and order theories. Our new framework encompasses the elements necessary to (1) manipulate performances as mathematical objects, (2) express which performances are worse than or equivalent to others, (3) model tasks through a variable called satisfaction, (4) consider properties of the evaluation, (5) define scores, and (6) specify application-specific preferences through a variable called importance. On top of this framework, we propose the first axiomatic definition of performance orderings and performance-based rankings. Then, we introduce a universal parametric family of scores, called ranking scores, that can be used to establish rankings satisfying our axioms, while considering application-specific preferences. Finally, we show, in the case of two-class classification, that the family of ranking scores encompasses well-known performance scores, including the accuracy, the true positive rate (recall, sensitivity), the true negative rate (specificity), the positive predictive value (precision), and F1. However, we also show that some other scores commonly used to compare classifiers are unsuitable to derive performance orderings satisfying the axioms. Therefore, this paper provides the computer vision and machine learning communities with a rigorous framework for evaluating and ranking entities.

Benign overfitting refers to the phenomenon where an over-parameterized model fits the training data perfectly, including noise in the data, but still generalizes well to the unseen test data. While prior work provides some theoretical understanding of this phenomenon under the in-distribution setup, modern machine learning often operates in a more challenging Out-of-Distribution (OOD) regime, where the target (test) distribution can be rather different from the source (training) distribution. In this work, we take an initial step towards understanding benign overfitting in the OOD regime by focusing on the basic setup of over-parameterized linear models under covariate shift. We provide non-asymptotic guarantees proving that benign overfitting occurs in standard ridge regression, even under the OOD regime when the target covariance satisfies certain structural conditions. We identify several vital quantities relating to source and target covariance, which govern the performance of OOD generalization. Our result is sharp, which provably recovers prior in-distribution benign overfitting guarantee [Tsigler and Bartlett, 2023], as well as under-parameterized OOD guarantee [Ge et al., 2024] when specializing to each setup. Moreover, we also present theoretical results for a more general family of target covariance matrix, where standard ridge regression only achieves a slow statistical rate of $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ for the excess risk, while Principal Component Regression (PCR) is guaranteed to achieve the fast rate $O(1/n)$, where $n$ is the number of samples.

Properly understanding the performances of classifiers is essential in various scenarios. However, the literature often relies only on one or two standard scores to compare classifiers, which fails to capture the nuances of application-specific requirements, potentially leading to suboptimal classifier selection. Recently, a paper on the foundations of the theory of performance-based ranking introduced a tool, called the Tile, that organizes an infinity of ranking scores into a 2D map. Thanks to the Tile, it is now possible to evaluate and compare classifiers efficiently, displaying all possible application-specific preferences instead of having to rely on a pair of scores. In this paper, we provide a first hitchhiker's guide for understanding the performances of two-class classifiers by presenting four scenarios, each showcasing a different user profile: a theoretical analyst, a method designer, a benchmarker, and an application developer. Particularly, we show that we can provide different interpretative flavors that are adapted to the user's needs by mapping different values on the Tile. As an illustration, we leverage the newly introduced Tile tool and the different flavors to rank and analyze the performances of 74 state-of-the-art semantic segmentation models in two-class classification through the eyes of the four user profiles. Through these user profiles, we demonstrate that the Tile effectively captures the behavior of classifiers in a single visualization, while accommodating an infinite number of ranking scores.

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have grown tremendously in popularity across various industries. From healthcare and finance to retail and automotive, adopting machine learning models has led to significant advancements[1]. However, building machine learning models traditionally requires deep knowledge in multiple areas, such as data preprocessing, feature engineering, model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and evaluation[2]. For many beginners and even experienced practitioners, this process can be time-consuming and technically challenging. This is where AutoML (Automated Machine Learning) comes in. AutoML simplifies the process of building machine learning models by automating many of the steps that would otherwise require manual intervention [3]. AutoML tools can automatically preprocess data, select the most suitable algorithms, and fine-tune hyperparameters to produce highly accurate models [4]. This automation not only speeds up the model development cycle but also allows users without deep knowledge of machine learning to create models with comparable performance to those made by experienced data scientists.