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Prediction of Lung Metastasis from Hepatocellular Carcinoma using the SEER Database

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality, with lung metastases being the most common site of distant spread and significantly worsening prognosis. Despite the growing availability of clinical and demographic data, predictive models for lung metastasis in HCC remain limited in scope and clinical applicability. In this study, we develop and validate an end-to-end machine learning pipeline using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We evaluated three machine learning models (Random Forest, XGBoost, and Logistic Regression) alongside a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network. Our models achieved high AUROC values and recall, with the Random Forest and MLP models demonstrating the best overall performance (AUROC = 0.82). However, the low precision across models highlights the challenges of accurately predicting positive cases. To address these limitations, we developed a custom loss function incorporating recall optimization, enabling the MLP model to achieve the highest sensitivity. An ensemble approach further improved overall recall by leveraging the strengths of individual models. Feature importance analysis revealed key predictors such as surgery status, tumor staging, and follow up duration, emphasizing the relevance of clinical interventions and disease progression in metastasis prediction. While this study demonstrates the potential of machine learning for identifying high-risk patients, limitations include reliance on imbalanced datasets, incomplete feature annotations, and the low precision of predictions. Future work should leverage the expanding SEER dataset, improve data imputation techniques, and explore advanced pre-trained models to enhance predictive accuracy and clinical utility.


Technical Report for the Forgotten-by-Design Project: Targeted Obfuscation for Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The right to privacy, enshrined in various human rights declarations, faces new challenges in the age of artificial intelligence (AI). This paper explores the concept of the Right to be Forgotten (RTBF) within AI systems, contrasting it with traditional data erasure methods. We introduce Forgotten by Design, a proactive approach to privacy preservation that integrates instance-specific obfuscation techniques during the AI model training process. Unlike machine unlearning, which modifies models post-training, our method prevents sensitive data from being embedded in the first place. Using the LIRA membership inference attack, we identify vulnerable data points and propose defenses that combine additive gradient noise and weighting schemes. Our experiments on the CIFAR-10 dataset demonstrate that our techniques reduce privacy risks by at least an order of magnitude while maintaining model accuracy (at 95% significance). Additionally, we present visualization methods for the privacy-utility trade-off, providing a clear framework for balancing privacy risk and model accuracy. This work contributes to the development of privacy-preserving AI systems that align with human cognitive processes of motivated forgetting, offering a robust framework for safeguarding sensitive information and ensuring compliance with privacy regulations.


ShadowGenes: Leveraging Recurring Patterns within Computational Graphs for Model Genealogy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning model genealogy enables practitioners to determine which architectural family a neural network belongs to. In this paper, we introduce ShadowGenes, a novel, signature-based method for identifying a given model's architecture, type, and family. Our method involves building a computational graph of the model that is agnostic of its serialization format, then analyzing its internal operations to identify unique patterns, and finally building and refining signatures based on these. We highlight important workings of the underlying engine and demonstrate the technique used to construct a signature and scan a given model. This approach to model genealogy can be applied to model files without the need for additional external information. We test ShadowGenes on a labeled dataset of over 1,400 models and achieve a mean true positive rate of 97.49% and a precision score of 99.51%; which validates the technique as a practical method for model genealogy. This enables practitioners to understand the use cases of a given model, the internal computational process, and identify possible security risks, such as the potential for model backdooring.


Rethinking Membership Inference Attacks Against Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transfer learning, successful in knowledge translation across related tasks, faces a substantial privacy threat from membership inference attacks (MIAs). These attacks, despite posing significant risk to ML model's training data, remain limited-explored in transfer learning. The interaction between teacher and student models in transfer learning has not been thoroughly explored in MIAs, potentially resulting in an under-examined aspect of privacy vulnerabilities within transfer learning. In this paper, we propose a new MIA vector against transfer learning, to determine whether a specific data point was used to train the teacher model while only accessing the student model in a white-box setting. Our method delves into the intricate relationship between teacher and student models, analyzing the discrepancies in hidden layer representations between the student model and its shadow counterpart. These identified differences are then adeptly utilized to refine the shadow model's training process and to inform membership inference decisions effectively. Our method, evaluated across four datasets in diverse transfer learning tasks, reveals that even when an attacker only has access to the student model, the teacher model's training data remains susceptible to MIAs. We believe our work unveils the unexplored risk of membership inference in transfer learning.


Classification of HI Galaxy Profiles Using Unsupervised Learning and Convolutional Neural Networks: A Comparative Analysis and Methodological Cases of Studies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, is crucial for understanding galaxy formation and evolution. The 21 cm neutral atomic hydrogen - HI spectral line maps the gas kinematics within galaxies, providing key insights into interactions, galactic structure, and star formation processes. With new radio instruments, the volume and complexity of data is increasing. To analyze and classify integrated HI spectral profiles in a efficient way, this work presents a framework that integrates Machine Learning techniques, combining unsupervised methods and CNNs. To this end, we apply our framework to a selected subsample of 318 spectral HI profiles of the CIG and 30.780 profiles from the Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA Survey catalogue. Data pre-processing involved the Busyfit package and iterative fitting with polynomial, Gaussian, and double-Lorentzian models. Clustering methods, including K-means, spectral clustering, DBSCAN, and agglomerative clustering, were used for feature extraction and to bootstrap classification we applied K-NN, SVM, and Random Forest classifiers, optimizing accuracy with CNN. Additionally, we introduced a 2D model of the profiles to enhance classification by adding dimensionality to the data. Three 2D models were generated based on transformations and normalised versions to quantify the level of asymmetry. These methods were tested in a previous analytical classification study conducted by the Analysis of the Interstellar Medium in Isolated Galaxies group. This approach enhances classification accuracy and aims to establish a methodology that could be applied to data analysis in future surveys conducted with the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), currently under construction. All materials, code, and models have been made publicly available in an open-access repository, adhering to FAIR principles.


Investigation of Whisper ASR Hallucinations Induced by Non-Speech Audio

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hallucinations of deep neural models are amongst key challenges in automatic speech recognition (ASR). In this paper, we investigate hallucinations of the Whisper ASR model induced by non-speech audio segments present during inference. By inducting hallucinations with various types of sounds, we show that there exists a set of hallucinations that appear frequently. We then study hallucinations caused by the augmentation of speech with such sounds. Finally, we describe the creation of a bag of hallucinations (BoH) that allows to remove the effect of hallucinations through the post-processing of text transcriptions. The results of our experiments show that such post-processing is capable of reducing word error rate (WER) and acts as a good safeguard against problematic hallucinations.


A Machine Learning Framework for Handling Unreliable Absence Label and Class Imbalance for Marine Stinger Beaching Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bluebottles (\textit{Physalia} spp.) are marine stingers resembling jellyfish, whose presence on Australian beaches poses a significant public risk due to their venomous nature. Understanding the environmental factors driving bluebottles ashore is crucial for mitigating their impact, and machine learning tools are to date relatively unexplored. We use bluebottle marine stinger presence/absence data from beaches in Eastern Sydney, Australia, and compare machine learning models (Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, and XGBoost) to identify factors influencing their presence. We address challenges such as class imbalance, class overlap, and unreliable absence data by employing data augmentation techniques, including the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), Random Undersampling, and Synthetic Negative Approach that excludes the negative class. Our results show that SMOTE failed to resolve class overlap, but the presence-focused approach effectively handled imbalance, class overlap, and ambiguous absence data. The data attributes such as the wind direction, which is a circular variable, emerged as a key factor influencing bluebottle presence, confirming previous inference studies. However, in the absence of population dynamics, biological behaviours, and life cycles, the best predictive model appears to be Random Forests combined with Synthetic Negative Approach. This research contributes to mitigating the risks posed by bluebottles to beachgoers and provides insights into handling class overlap and unreliable negative class in environmental modelling.


Class Imbalance in Anomaly Detection: Learning from an Exactly Solvable Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Class imbalance (CI) is a longstanding problem in machine learning, slowing down training and reducing performances. Although empirical remedies exist, it is often unclear which ones work best and when, due to the lack of an overarching theory. We address a common case of imbalance, that of anomaly (or outlier) detection. We provide a theoretical framework to analyze, interpret and address CI. It is based on an exact solution of the teacher-student perceptron model, through replica theory. Within this framework, one can distinguish several sources of CI: either intrinsic, train or test imbalance. Our analysis reveals that the optimal train imbalance is generally different from 50%, with a non trivial dependence on the intrinsic imbalance, the abundance of data and on the noise in the learning. Moreover, there is a crossover between a small noise training regime where results are independent of the noise level to a high noise regime where performances quickly degrade with noise. Our results challenge some of the conventional wisdom on CI and offer practical guidelines to address it.


Provably effective detection of effective data poisoning attacks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dataset poisoning attacks present a threat against machine learning models because they introduce subtle, ostensibly undetectable changes to the data on which the model will be trained. Moreover, attackers often craft attacks to deterministically change a model's behavior by invoking a latent trigger that they set in the resultant model. We will introduce the precise threat model in which we are interested in Section 2. Researchers often frame dataset poisoning and its analysis from the point of view of optimization theory [1]-[5]. E.g., in the computer vision setting, one might attempt to alter as few pixels as possible in as few images as possible while still producing targeted misclassifications. For text generation, one might aim to change as few tokens as possible to as few corpus sentences as possible while causing targeted semantic misalignment on the next phrase or sentence. In general, this vantage is convenient for conducting attacks. Even locally optimizing the criteria for an attack typically yields a dataset that effectively attacks models trained on it. From this perspective, it is natural to also frame detection of data poisoning as an optimization problem. For example, in [4], it is hypothesized that poisoning a dataset impacts the most dominant features in neural networks trained on it and it is shown that under this assumption poisoning can be provably detected by solving an optimization problem.


On the Size and Approximation Error of Distilled Datasets

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dataset Distillation is the task of synthesizing small datasets from large ones while still retaining comparable predictive accuracy to the original uncompressed dataset. Despite significant empirical progress in recent years, there is little understanding of the theoretical limitations/guarantees of dataset distillation, specifically, what excess risk is achieved by distillation compared to the original dataset, and how large are distilled datasets? In this work, we take a theoretical view on kernel ridge regression (KRR) based methods of dataset distillation such as Kernel Inducing Points. By transforming ridge regression in random Fourier features (RFF) space, we provide the first proof of the existence of small (size) distilled datasets and their corresponding excess risk for shift-invariant kernels. We prove that a small set of instances exists in the original input space such that its solution in the RFF space coincides with the solution of the original data.