Accuracy
Passive Measurement of Autonomic Arousal in Real-World Settings
Abdel-Ghaffar, Samy, Galatzer-Levy, Isaac, Heneghan, Conor, Liu, Xin, Kernasovskiy, Sarah, Garrett, Brennan, Barakat, Andrew, McDuff, Daniel
The autonomic nervous system (ANS) is activated during stress, which can have negative effects on cardiovascular health, sleep, the immune system, and mental health. While there are ways to quantify ANS activity in laboratories, there is a paucity of methods that have been validated in real-world contexts. We present the Fitbit Body Response Algorithm, an approach to continuous remote measurement of ANS activation through widely available remote wrist-based sensors. The design was validated via two experiments, a Trier Social Stress Test (n = 45) and ecological momentary assessments (EMA) of perceived stress (n=87), providing both controlled and ecologically valid test data. Model performance predicting perceived stress when using all available sensor modalities was consistent with expectations (accuracy=0.85) and outperformed models with access to only a subset of the signals. We discuss and address challenges to sensing that arise in real world settings that do not present in conventional lab environments.
Security Bug Report Prediction Within and Across Projects: A Comparative Study of BERT and Random Forest
Soltaniani, Farnaz, Ghafari, Mohammad, Sayagh, Mohammed
Early detection of security bug reports (SBRs) is crucial for preventing vulnerabilities and ensuring system reliability. While machine learning models have been developed for SBR prediction, their predictive performance still has room for improvement. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive comparison between BERT and Random Forest (RF), a competitive baseline for predicting SBRs. The results show that RF outperforms BERT with a 34% higher average G-measure for within-project predictions. Adding only SBRs from various projects improves both models' average performance. However, including both security and nonsecurity bug reports significantly reduces RF's average performance to 46%, while boosts BERT to its best average performance of 66%, surpassing RF. In cross-project SBR prediction, BERT achieves a remarkable 62% G-measure, which is substantially higher than RF.
A Generative-AI-Driven Claim Retrieval System Capable of Detecting and Retrieving Claims from Social Media Platforms in Multiple Languages
Vykopal, Ivan, Hyben, Martin, Moro, Robert, Gregor, Michal, Simko, Jakub
Online disinformation poses a global challenge, placing significant demands on fact-checkers who must verify claims efficiently to prevent the spread of false information. A major issue in this process is the redundant verification of already fact-checked claims, which increases workload and delays responses to newly emerging claims. This research introduces an approach that retrieves previously fact-checked claims, evaluates their relevance to a given input, and provides supplementary information to support fact-checkers. Our method employs large language models (LLMs) to filter irrelevant fact-checks and generate concise summaries and explanations, enabling fact-checkers to faster assess whether a claim has been verified before. In addition, we evaluate our approach through both automatic and human assessments, where humans interact with the developed tool to review its effectiveness. Our results demonstrate that LLMs are able to filter out many irrelevant fact-checks and, therefore, reduce effort and streamline the fact-checking process.
What's Wrong with Your Synthetic Tabular Data? Using Explainable AI to Evaluate Generative Models
Kapar, Jan, Koenen, Niklas, Jullum, Martin
Evaluating synthetic tabular data is challenging, since they can differ from the real data in so many ways. There exist numerous metrics of synthetic data quality, ranging from statistical distances to predictive performance, often providing conflicting results. Moreover, they fail to explain or pinpoint the specific weaknesses in the synthetic data. To address this, we apply explainable AI (XAI) techniques to a binary detection classifier trained to distinguish real from synthetic data. While the classifier identifies distributional differences, XAI concepts such as feature importance and feature effects, analyzed through methods like permutation feature importance, partial dependence plots, Shapley values and counterfactual explanations, reveal why synthetic data are distinguishable, highlighting inconsistencies, unrealistic dependencies, or missing patterns. This interpretability increases transparency in synthetic data evaluation and provides deeper insights beyond conventional metrics, helping diagnose and improve synthetic data quality. We apply our approach to two tabular datasets and generative models, showing that it uncovers issues overlooked by standard evaluation techniques.
Financial Data Analysis with Robust Federated Logistic Regression
Yang, Kun, Krishnan, Nikhil, Kulkarni, Sanjeev R.
Financial data analysis plays a pivotal role in today's business landscape [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7], including credit risk assessment (such as loan prediction and credit scoring), fraud detection, and cost optimization, etc. However, when we develop solutions to address financial problems, we will inevitably encounter a number of key challenges [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. For example, financial data is often voluminous, dynamically and frequently generated in real time, and distributed across diverse locations, making it challenging to process and analyze in a centralized manner[1], e.g., the New Y ork Stock Exchange (NYSE) alone has billions of transactions per day. Similarly, other major exchanges, such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE), also generate vast amounts of stock data. Additionally, noise and missing values unavoidably occur in financial data, which can cause results and predictions to be skewed (or even completely wrong). These challenges require firms to come up with more efficient and smarter solutions. In recent decades, machine learning has achieved remarkable success across various domains [8, 9, 10], owing to its effective generalization ability and adaptability, and has also received increasing attention in financial data analysis [11, 12], such as credit risk assessment, resource allocation, and cost optimization. However, these classical (supervised) machine learning based solutions, such as logistic regression and random forest, usually implicitly assume that 1) all the data is stored and centralized at one location, typically a single machine, and that we have full access to the entire data; 2) these algorithms expect to run on a single machine with minimal concerns for memory or disk storage limitations; and 3) the provided data is clean and free from outliers introduced by malicious adversaries, as it is stored at a single location equipped with high security protection mechanisms to prevent data corruption. Nonetheless, these assumptions do not always hold in practice.
Classifier-to-Bias: Toward Unsupervised Automatic Bias Detection for Visual Classifiers
Guimard, Quentin, D'Incร , Moreno, Mancini, Massimiliano, Ricci, Elisa
A person downloading a pre-trained model from the web should be aware of its biases. Existing approaches for bias identification rely on datasets containing labels for the task of interest, something that a non-expert may not have access to, or may not have the necessary resources to collect: this greatly limits the number of tasks where model biases can be identified. In this work, we present Classifier-to-Bias (C2B), the first bias discovery framework that works without access to any labeled data: it only relies on a textual description of the classification task to identify biases in the target classification model. This description is fed to a large language model to generate bias proposals and corresponding captions depicting biases together with task-specific target labels. A retrieval model collects images for those captions, which are then used to assess the accuracy of the model w.r.t. the given biases. C2B is training-free, does not require any annotations, has no constraints on the list of biases, and can be applied to any pre-trained model on any classification task. Experiments on two publicly available datasets show that C2B discovers biases beyond those of the original datasets and outperforms a recent state-of-the-art bias detection baseline that relies on task-specific annotations, being a promising first step toward addressing task-agnostic unsupervised bias detection.
TrueFake: A Real World Case Dataset of Last Generation Fake Images also Shared on Social Networks
Dell'Anna, Stefano, Montibeller, Andrea, Boato, Giulia
--AI-generated synthetic media are increasingly used in real-world scenarios, often with the purpose of spreading misinformation and propaganda through social media platforms, where compression and other processing can degrade fake detection cues. Currently, many forensic tools fail to account for these in-the-wild challenges. In this work, we introduce TrueFake, a large-scale benchmarking dataset of 600,000 images including top notch generative techniques and sharing via three different social networks. This dataset allows for rigorous evaluation of state-of-the-art fake image detectors under very realistic and challenging conditions. Through extensive experimentation, we analyze how social media sharing impacts detection performance, and identify current most effective detection and training strategies. Our findings highlight the need for evaluating forensic models in conditions that mirror real-world use. In recent years, AI-generated media (such as images, videos, and audio) have increasingly become part of everyday life [3] becoming widely used in the entertainment industry, including movie production and advertising. The literature provides a broad range of AI media generators capable of producing hyper-realistic images [4], [5], videos [6], and even audio [7].
Decision-centric fairness: Evaluation and optimization for resource allocation problems
De Vos, Simon, Van Belle, Jente, Algaba, Andres, Verbeke, Wouter, Verboven, Sam
Data-driven decision support tools play an increasingly central role in decision-making across various domains. In this work, we focus on binary classification models for predicting positive-outcome scores and deciding on resource allocation, e.g., credit scores for granting loans or churn propensity scores for targeting customers with a retention campaign. Such models may exhibit discriminatory behavior toward specific demographic groups through their predicted scores, potentially leading to unfair resource allocation. We focus on demographic parity as a fairness metric to compare the proportions of instances that are selected based on their positive outcome scores across groups. In this work, we propose a decision-centric fairness methodology that induces fairness only within the decision-making region -- the range of relevant decision thresholds on the score that may be used to decide on resource allocation -- as an alternative to a global fairness approach that seeks to enforce parity across the entire score distribution. By restricting the induction of fairness to the decision-making region, the proposed decision-centric approach avoids imposing overly restrictive constraints on the model, which may unnecessarily degrade the quality of the predicted scores. We empirically compare our approach to a global fairness approach on multiple (semi-synthetic) datasets to identify scenarios in which focusing on fairness where it truly matters, i.e., decision-centric fairness, proves beneficial.
RV-Syn: Rational and Verifiable Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis based on Structured Function Library
Wang, Jiapeng, Jiang, Jinhao, Zhang, Zhiqiang, Zhou, Jun, Zhao, Wayne Xin
The advancement of reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs) requires substantial amounts of high-quality reasoning data, particularly in mathematics. Existing data synthesis methods, such as data augmentation from annotated training sets or direct question generation based on relevant knowledge points and documents, have expanded datasets but face challenges in mastering the inner logic of the problem during generation and ensuring the verifiability of the solutions. To address these issues, we propose RV-Syn, a novel Rational and Verifiable mathematical Synthesis approach. RV-Syn constructs a structured mathematical operation function library based on initial seed problems and generates computational graphs as solutions by combining Python-formatted functions from this library. These graphs are then back-translated into complex problems. Based on the constructed computation graph, we achieve solution-guided logic-aware problem generation. Furthermore, the executability of the computational graph ensures the verifiability of the solving process. Experimental results show that RV-Syn surpasses existing synthesis methods, including those involving human-generated problems, achieving greater efficient data scaling. This approach provides a scalable framework for generating high-quality reasoning datasets.
AKIBoards: A Structure-Following Multiagent System for Predicting Acute Kidney Injury
Gordon, David, Petousis, Panayiotis, Nicholas, Susanne B., Bui, Alex A. T.
Diagnostic reasoning entails a physician's local (mental) model based on an assumed or known shared perspective (global model) to explain patient observations with evidence assigned towards a clinical assessment. But in several (complex) medical situations, multiple experts work together as a team to optimize health evaluation and decision-making by leveraging different perspectives. Such consensus-driven reasoning reflects individual knowledge contributing toward a broader perspective on the patient. In this light, we introduce STRUCture-following for Multiagent Systems (STRUC-MAS), a framework automating the learning of these global models and their incorporation as prior beliefs for agents in multiagent systems (MAS) to follow. We demonstrate proof of concept with a prosocial MAS application for predicting acute kidney injuries (AKIs). In this case, we found that incorporating a global structure enabled multiple agents to achieve better performance (average precision, AP) in predicting AKI 48 hours before onset (structure-following-fine-tuned, SF-FT, AP=0.195; SF-FT-retrieval-augmented generation, SF-FT-RAG, AP=0.194) vs. baseline (non-structure-following-FT, NSF-FT, AP=0.141; NSF-FT-RAG, AP=0.180) for balanced precision-weighted-recall-weighted voting. Markedly, SF-FT agents with higher recall scores reported lower confidence levels in the initial round on true positive and false negative cases. But after explicit interactions, their confidence in their decisions increased (suggesting reinforced belief). In contrast, the SF-FT agent with the lowest recall decreased its confidence in true positive and false negative cases (suggesting a new belief). This approach suggests that learning and leveraging global structures in MAS is necessary prior to achieving competitive classification and diagnostic reasoning performance.