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Towards Physics-informed Diffusion for Anomaly Detection in Trajectories

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Given trajectory data, a domain-specific study area, and a user-defined threshold, we aim to find anomalous trajectories indicative of possible GPS spoofing (e.g., fake trajectory). The problem is societally important to curb illegal activities in international waters, such as unauthorized fishing and illicit oil transfers. The problem is challenging due to advances in AI generated in deep fakes generation (e.g., additive noise, fake trajectories) and lack of adequate amount of labeled samples for ground-truth verification. Recent literature shows promising results for anomalous trajectory detection using generative models despite data sparsity. However, they do not consider fine-scale spatiotemporal dependencies and prior physical knowledge, resulting in higher false-positive rates. To address these limitations, we propose a physics-informed diffusion model that integrates kinematic constraints to identify trajectories that do not adhere to physical laws. Experimental results on real-world datasets in the maritime and urban domains show that the proposed framework results in higher prediction accuracy and lower estimation error rate for anomaly detection and trajectory generation methods, respectively. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/arunshar/Physics-Informed-Diffusion-Probabilistic-Model.


Efficient Network Automatic Relevance Determination

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose Network Automatic Relevance Determination (NARD), an extension of ARD for linearly probabilistic models, to simultaneously model sparse relationships between inputs $X \in \mathbb R^{d \times N}$ and outputs $Y \in \mathbb R^{m \times N}$, while capturing the correlation structure among the $Y$. NARD employs a matrix normal prior which contains a sparsity-inducing parameter to identify and discard irrelevant features, thereby promoting sparsity in the model. Algorithmically, it iteratively updates both the precision matrix and the relationship between $Y$ and the refined inputs. To mitigate the computational inefficiencies of the $\mathcal O(m^3 + d^3)$ cost per iteration, we introduce Sequential NARD, which evaluates features sequentially, and a Surrogate Function Method, leveraging an efficient approximation of the marginal likelihood and simplifying the calculation of determinant and inverse of an intermediate matrix. Combining the Sequential update with the Surrogate Function method further reduces computational costs. The computational complexity per iteration for these three methods is reduced to $\mathcal O(m^3+p^3)$, $\mathcal O(m^3 + d^2)$, $\mathcal O(m^3+p^2)$, respectively, where $p \ll d$ is the final number of features in the model. Our methods demonstrate significant improvements in computational efficiency with comparable performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets.


Uncovering Bias Paths with LLM-guided Causal Discovery: An Active Learning and Dynamic Scoring Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal discovery (CD) plays a pivotal role in understanding the mechanisms underlying complex systems. While recent algorithms can detect spurious associations and latent confounding, many struggle to recover fairness-relevant pathways in realistic, noisy settings. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their access to broad semantic knowledge, offer a promising complement to statistical CD approaches, particularly in domains where metadata provides meaningful relational cues. Ensuring fairness in machine learning requires understanding how sensitive attributes causally influence outcomes, yet CD methods often introduce spurious or biased pathways. We propose a hybrid LLM-based framework for CD that extends a breadth-first search (BFS) strategy with active learning and dynamic scoring. Variable pairs are prioritized for LLM-based querying using a composite score based on mutual information, partial correlation, and LLM confidence, improving discovery efficiency and robustness. To evaluate fairness sensitivity, we construct a semi-synthetic benchmark from the UCI Adult dataset, embedding a domain-informed causal graph with injected noise, label corruption, and latent confounding. We assess how well CD methods recover both global structure and fairness-critical paths. Our results show that LLM-guided methods, including the proposed method, demonstrate competitive or superior performance in recovering such pathways under noisy conditions. We highlight when dynamic scoring and active querying are most beneficial and discuss implications for bias auditing in real-world datasets.


Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the Development of Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development of vaccines and immunotherapies against infectious diseases and cancers has been one of the major achievements of medical science in the last century. Subunit vaccines offer key advantages over whole-inactivated or attenuated-pathogen-based vaccines, as they elicit more specific Band T-cell responses with improved safety. However, developing subunit vaccines is often cost and timeconsuming and may not predict fast, strong, and long-lasting immunity, limiting their ability to rapidly counter apparent growing emerging pandemics and cancers. In the past, the development of vaccines and immunotherapeutics relied heavily on trial-and-error experimentation and extensive in vivo testing, often requiring years of pre-clinical and clinical trials. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) are actively transforming vaccine and immunotherapeutic design, by (i) offering predictive frameworks that support rapid, data-driven decision-making; (ii) increasingly being implemented as time-and resourceefficient strategies that integrate computational models; systems vaccinology and multi-omics data to better phenotype, differentiate, and classify patients diseases and cancers; predict patients' immune responses and identify the factors contributing to optimal vaccine and immunotherapeutic protective efficacy; (iii) refining the selection of Band T-cell antigen/epitope targets to enhance efficacy and durability of immune protection; and (iv) enabling a deeper understanding of immune regulation, immune evasion, immune checkpoints, and regulatory pathways. The future of AI and DL points toward (i) replacing animal preclinical testing of drugs, vaccines, and immunotherapeutics with computational-based models, as recently proposed by the United States FDA; and (ii) enabling real-time in vivo modeling for immunobridging and prediction of protection in clinical trials. This may result in a fast and transformative shift for the development of personal vaccines and immunotherapeutics against infectious pathogens and cancers.


EUNIS Habitat Maps: Enhancing Thematic and Spatial Resolution for Europe through Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The EUNIS habitat classification is crucial for categorising European habitats, supporting European policy on nature conservation and implementing the Nature Restoration Law. To meet the growing demand for detailed and accurate habitat information, we provide spatial predictions for 260 EUNIS habitat types at hierarchical level 3, together with independent validation and uncertainty analyses. Using ensemble machine learning models, together with high-resolution satellite imagery and ecologically meaningful climatic, topographic and edaphic variables, we produced a European habitat map indicating the most probable EUNIS habitat at 100-m resolution across Europe. Additionally, we provide information on prediction uncertainty and the most probable habitats at level 3 within each EUNIS level 1 formation. This product is particularly useful for both conservation and restoration purposes. Predictions were cross-validated at European scale using a spatial block cross-validation and evaluated against independent data from France (forests only), the Netherlands and Austria. The habitat maps obtained strong predictive performances on the validation datasets with distinct trade-offs in terms of recall and precision across habitat formations.


Beyond the First Read: AI-Assisted Perceptual Error Detection in Chest Radiography Accounting for Interobserver Variability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Chest radiography is widely used in diagnostic imaging. However, perceptual errors -- especially overlooked but visible abnormalities -- remain common and clinically significant. Current workflows and AI systems provide limited support for detecting such errors after interpretation and often lack meaningful human--AI collaboration. We introduce RADAR (Radiologist--AI Diagnostic Assistance and Review), a post-interpretation companion system. RADAR ingests finalized radiologist annotations and CXR images, then performs regional-level analysis to detect and refer potentially missed abnormal regions. The system supports a "second-look" workflow and offers suggested regions of interest (ROIs) rather than fixed labels to accommodate inter-observer variation. We evaluated RADAR on a simulated perceptual-error dataset derived from de-identified CXR cases, using F1 score and Intersection over Union (IoU) as primary metrics. RADAR achieved a recall of 0.78, precision of 0.44, and an F1 score of 0.56 in detecting missed abnormalities in the simulated perceptual-error dataset. Although precision is moderate, this reduces over-reliance on AI by encouraging radiologist oversight in human--AI collaboration. The median IoU was 0.78, with more than 90% of referrals exceeding 0.5 IoU, indicating accurate regional localization. RADAR effectively complements radiologist judgment, providing valuable post-read support for perceptual-error detection in CXR interpretation. Its flexible ROI suggestions and non-intrusive integration position it as a promising tool in real-world radiology workflows. To facilitate reproducibility and further evaluation, we release a fully open-source web implementation alongside a simulated error dataset. All code, data, demonstration videos, and the application are publicly available at https://github.com/avutukuri01/RADAR.


When Detection Fails: The Power of Fine-Tuned Models to Generate Human-Like Social Media Text

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Detecting AI-generated text is a difficult problem to begin with; detecting AI-generated text on social media is made even more difficult due to the short text length and informal, idiosyncratic language of the internet. It is nonetheless important to tackle this problem, as social media represents a significant attack vector in online influence campaigns, which may be bolstered through the use of mass-produced AI-generated posts supporting (or opposing) particular policies, decisions, or events. We approach this problem with the mindset and resources of a reasonably sophisticated threat actor, and create a dataset of 505,159 AI-generated social media posts from a combination of open-source, closed-source, and fine-tuned LLMs, covering 11 different controversial topics. We show that while the posts can be detected under typical research assumptions about knowledge of and access to the generating models, under the more realistic assumption that an attacker will not release their fine-tuned model to the public, detectability drops dramatically. This result is confirmed with a human study. Ablation experiments highlight the vulnerability of various detection algorithms to fine-tuned LLMs. This result has implications across all detection domains, since fine-tuning is a generally applicable and realistic LLM use case.


Decentralized Decision Making in Two Sided Manufacturing-as-a-Service Marketplaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Advancements in digitization have enabled two sided manufacturing-as-a-service (MaaS) marketplaces which has significantly reduced product development time for designers. These platforms provide designers with access to manufacturing resources through a network of suppliers and have instant order placement capabilities. Two key decision making levers are typically used to optimize the operations of these marketplaces: pricing and matching. The existing marketplaces operate in a centralized structure where they have complete control over decision making. However, a decentralized organization of the platform enables transparency of information across clients and suppliers. This dissertation focuses on developing tools for decision making enabling decentralization in MaaS marketplaces. In pricing mechanisms, a data driven method is introduced which enables small service providers to price services based on specific attributes of the services offered. A data mining method recommends a network based price to a supplier based on its attributes and the attributes of other suppliers on the platform. Three different approaches are considered for matching mechanisms. First, a reverse auction mechanism is introduced where designers bid for manufacturing services and the mechanism chooses a supplier which can match the bid requirements and stated price. The second approach uses mechanism design and mathematical programming to develop a stable matching mechanism for matching orders to suppliers based on their preferences. Empirical simulations are used to test the mechanisms in a simulated 3D printing marketplace and to evaluate the impact of stability on its performance. The third approach considers the matching problem in a dynamic and stochastic environment where demand (orders) and supply (supplier capacities) arrive over time and matching is performed online.


Semivalue-based data valuation is arbitrary and gameable

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The game-theoretic notion of the semivalue offers a popular framework for credit attribution and data valuation in machine learning. Semivalues have been proposed for a variety of high-stakes decisions involving data, such as determining contributor compensation, acquiring data from external sources, or filtering out low-value datapoints. In these applications, semivalues depend on the specification of a utility function that maps subsets of data to a scalar score. While it is broadly agreed that this utility function arises from a composition of a learning algorithm and a performance metric, its actual instantiation involves numerous subtle modeling choices. We argue that this underspecification leads to varying degrees of arbitrariness in semivalue-based valuations. Small, but arguably reasonable changes to the utility function can induce substantial shifts in valuations across datapoints. Moreover, these valuation methodologies are also often gameable: low-cost adversarial strategies exist to exploit this ambiguity and systematically redistribute value among datapoints. Through theoretical constructions and empirical examples, we demonstrate that a bad-faith valuator can manipulate utility specifications to favor preferred datapoints, and that a good-faith valuator is left without principled guidance to justify any particular specification. These vulnerabilities raise ethical and epistemic concerns about the use of semivalues in several applications. We conclude by highlighting the burden of justification that semivalue-based approaches place on modelers and discuss important considerations for identifying appropriate uses.


Understanding the Effect of Knowledge Graph Extraction Error on Downstream Graph Analyses: A Case Study on Affiliation Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge graphs (KGs) are useful for analyzing social structures, community dynamics, institutional memberships, and other complex relationships across domains from sociology to public health. While recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have improved the scalability and accessibility of automated KG extraction from large text corpora, the impacts of extraction errors on downstream analyses are poorly understood, especially for applied scientists who depend on accurate KGs for real-world insights. To address this gap, we conducted the first evaluation of KG extraction performance at two levels: (1) micro-level edge accuracy, which is consistent with standard NLP evaluations, and manual identification of common error sources; (2) macro-level graph metrics that assess structural properties such as community detection and connectivity, which are relevant to real-world applications. Focusing on affiliation graphs of person membership in organizations extracted from social register books, our study identifies a range of extraction performance where biases across most downstream graph analysis metrics are near zero. However, as extraction performance declines, we find that many metrics exhibit increasingly pronounced biases, with each metric tending toward a consistent direction of either over- or under-estimation. Through simulations, we further show that error models commonly used in the literature do not capture these bias patterns, indicating the need for more realistic error models for KG extraction. Our findings provide actionable insights for practitioners and underscores the importance of advancing extraction methods and error modeling to ensure reliable and meaningful downstream analyses.