This paper investigates the Jolting Technologies Hypothesis, which posits superexponential growth (increasing acceleration, or a positive third derivative) in the development of AI capabilities. We develop a theoretical framework and validate detection methodologies through Monte Carlo simulations, while acknowledging that empirical validation awaits suitable longitudinal data. Our analysis focuses on creating robust tools for future empirical studies and exploring the potential implications should the hypothesis prove valid. The study examines how factors such as shrinking idea-to-action intervals and compounding iterative AI improvements drive this jolting pattern. By formalizing jolt dynamics and validating detection methods through simulation, this work provides the mathematical foundation necessary for understanding potential AI trajectories and their consequences for AGI emergence, offering insights for research and policy.

Existing packer identifiers have significant limitations: signature-based methods lack flexibility and struggle against dynamic evasion, while Machine Learning approaches require extensive training data, limiting scalability and adaptability. Consequently, achieving accurate and adaptable packer identification remains an open problem. This paper presents PackHero, a scalable and efficient methodology for identifying packers using a novel static approach. PackHero employs a Graph Matching Network and clustering to match and group Call Graphs from programs packed with known packers. We evaluate our approach on a public dataset of malware and benign samples packed with various packers, demonstrating its effectiveness and scalability across varying sample sizes. PackHero achieves a macro-average F1-score of 93.7% with just 10 samples per packer, improving to 98.3% with 100 samples. Notably, PackHero requires fewer samples to achieve stable performance compared to other Machine Learning-based tools. Overall, PackHero matches the performance of State-of-the-art signature-based tools, outperforming them in handling Virtualization-based packers such as Themida/Winlicense, with a recall of 100%.

This paper describes the approach of the Unibuc - NLP team in tackling the SemEval 2025 Workshop, Task 11: Bridging the Gap in Text-Based Emotion Detection. We mainly focused on experiments using large language models (Gemini, Qwen, DeepSeek) with either few-shot prompting or fine-tuning. With our final system, for the multi-label emotion detection track (track A), we got an F1-macro of $0.7546$ (26/96 teams) for the English subset, $0.1727$ (35/36 teams) for the Portuguese (Mozambican) subset and $0.325$ (\textbf{1}/31 teams) for the Emakhuwa subset.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often struggle with noisy edges. We propose Latent Space Constrained Graph Neural Networks (LSC-GNN) to incorporate external "clean" links and guide embeddings of a noisy target graph. We train two encoders--one on the full graph (target plus external edges) and another on a regularization graph excluding the target's potentially noisy links--then penalize discrepancies between their latent representations. This constraint steers the model away from overfitting spurious edges. Experiments on benchmark datasets show LSC-GNN outperforms standard and noise-resilient GNNs in graphs subjected to moderate noise. We extend LSC-GNN to heterogeneous graphs and validate it on a small protein-metabolite network, where metabolite-protein interactions reduce noise in protein co-occurrence data. Our results highlight LSC-GNN's potential to boost predictive performance and interpretability in settings with noisy relational structures.

The deployment of AI models in clinical practice faces a critical challenge: models achieving expert-level performance on benchmarks can fail catastrophically when confronted with real-world variations in medical imaging. Minor shifts in scanner hardware, lighting or demographics can erode accuracy, but currently reliability auditing to identify such catastrophic failure cases before deployment is a bespoke and time-consuming process. Practitioners lack accessible and interpretable tools to expose and repair hidden failure modes. Here we introduce ModelAuditor, a self-reflective agent that converses with users, selects task-specific metrics, and simulates context-dependent, clinically relevant distribution shifts. ModelAuditor then generates interpretable reports explaining how much performance likely degrades during deployment, discussing specific likely failure modes and identifying root causes and mitigation strategies. Our comprehensive evaluation across three real-world clinical scenarios - inter-institutional variation in histopathology, demographic shifts in dermatology, and equipment heterogeneity in chest radiography - demonstrates that ModelAuditor is able correctly identify context-specific failure modes of state-of-the-art models such as the established SIIM-ISIC melanoma classifier. Its targeted recommendations recover 15-25% of performance lost under real-world distribution shift, substantially outperforming both baseline models and state-of-the-art augmentation methods. These improvements are achieved through a multi-agent architecture and execute on consumer hardware in under 10 minutes, costing less than US$0.50 per audit.

Unlike classification, whose goal is to estimate the class of each data point in a dataset, prevalence estimation or quantification is a task that aims to estimate the distribution of classes in a dataset. The two main tasks in prevalence estimation are to adjust for bias, due to the prevalence in the training dataset, and to quantify the uncertainty in the estimate. The standard methods used to quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates are bootstrapping and Bayesian quantification methods. It is not clear which approach is ideal in terms of precision (i.e. the width of confidence intervals) and coverage (i.e. the confidence intervals being well-calibrated). Here, we propose Precise Quantifier (PQ), a Bayesian quantifier that is more precise than existing quantifiers and with well-calibrated coverage. We discuss the theory behind PQ and present experiments based on simulated and real-world datasets. Through these experiments, we establish the factors which influence quantification precision: the discriminatory power of the underlying classifier; the size of the labeled dataset used to train the quantifier; and the size of the unlabeled dataset for which prevalence is estimated. Our analysis provides deep insights into uncertainty quantification for quantification learning.

Many automated decision systems (ADS) are designed to solve prediction problems -- where the goal is to learn patterns from a sample of the population and apply them to individuals from the same population. In reality, these prediction systems operationalize holistic policy interventions in deployment. Once deployed, ADS can shape impacted population outcomes through an effective policy change in how decision-makers operate, while also being defined by past and present interactions between stakeholders and the limitations of existing organizational, as well as societal, infrastructure and context. In this work, we consider the ways in which we must shift from a prediction-focused paradigm to an interventionist paradigm when considering the impact of ADS within social systems. We argue this requires a new default problem setup for ADS beyond prediction, to instead consider predictions as decision support, final decisions, and outcomes. We highlight how this perspective unifies modern statistical frameworks and other tools to study the design, implementation, and evaluation of ADS systems, and point to the research directions necessary to operationalize this paradigm shift. Using these tools, we characterize the limitations of focusing on isolated prediction tasks, and lay the foundation for a more intervention-oriented approach to developing and deploying ADS.

We introduce OpenFActScore, an open-source implementation of the FActScore framework for evaluating the factuality of text generated by large language models (LLMs). FActScore evaluates the factual accuracy of long-form text by using Atomic Fact Generation (AFG) to extract individual factual claims and Atomic Fact Validation (AFV) to verify each claim against a trusted knowledge source. While the original FActScore relies on closed-source and commercial models such as InstructGPT and ChatGPT, OpenFActScore enables the use of any Hugging Face-compatible model for both AFG and AFV. We provide a detailed technical overview of our implementation, highlighting design choices and modifications made to support open models. We evaluate multiple open-source LLMs on both AFG and AFV using the original FActScore benchmark, reporting BERTScore-F1 for AFG and Error Rate relative to human annotations for AFV. Our results show that open models can approximate the performance of closed-source systems, with Gemma achieving the best overall performance, and our final setup obtains a 0.99 Pearson correlation with the original FActScore experiments. OpenFActScore promotes transparency, reproducibility, and cost-effective evaluation, and is available at: https://github.com/lflage/OpenFActScore.

JOURNAL OF L A T EX CLASS FILES, VOL. 18, NO. 9, SEPTEMBER 2024 1 Exploring Partial Multi-Label Learning via Integrating Semantic Co-occurrence Knowledge Xin Wu, Fei Teng, Y ue Feng, Kaibo Shi, Zhuosheng Lin, Ji Zhang and James Wang Abstract --Partial multi-label learning aims to extract knowledge from incompletely annotated data, which includes known correct labels, known incorrect labels, and unknown labels. The core challenge lies in accurately identifying the ambiguous relationships between labels and instances. In this paper, we emphasize that matching co-occurrence patterns between labels and instances is key to addressing this challenge. T o this end, we propose Semantic Co-occurrence Insight Network (SCINet), a novel and effective framework for partial multi-label learning. Specifically, SCINet introduces a bi-dominant prompter module, which leverages an off-the-shelf multimodal model to capture text-image correlations and enhance semantic alignment. T o reinforce instance-label interdependencies, we develop a cross-modality fusion module that jointly models inter-label correlations, inter-instance relationships, and co-occurrence patterns across instance-label assignments. Moreover, we propose an intrinsic semantic augmentation strategy that enhances the model's understanding of intrinsic data semantics by applying diverse image transformations, thereby fostering a synergistic relationship between label confidence and sample difficulty. Extensive experiments on four widely-used benchmark datasets demonstrate that SCINet surpasses state-of-the-art methods. I NTRODUCTION M UL TI-LABEL learning has demonstrated tremendous potential in fields. However, due to the high cost of labeling and the subjectivity of annotators, real-world datasets often suffer from incomplete and noisy labels. This challenge has spurred the exploration of partial multi-label learning methods aimed at addressing these issues more effectively. Consequently, driven by this research need, partial multi-label learning has garnered vibrant attention in machine learning [1], [2]. It represents a new paradigm for multi-label recognition This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.62272398), Sichuan Science and Technology Program (No.2024NSFJQ0019).

Model editing has been gaining increasing attention over the past few years. For Knowledge Editing in particular, more challenging evaluation datasets have recently been released. These datasets use different methodologies to score the success of editors. Yet, it remains under-explored how robust these methodologies are and whether they unfairly favor some editors. Moreover, the disruptive impact of these editors on overall model capabilities remains a constant blind spot. We address both of these problems and show that choosing different metrics and evaluation methodologies as well as different edit batch sizes can lead to a different ranking of knowledge editors. Crucially we demonstrate this effect also on general language understanding tasks evaluated alongside the knowledge editing tasks. Further we include a manual assessment of the string matching based evaluation method for knowledge editing that is favored by recently released datasets, revealing a tendency to produce false positive matches.