The Brier score conflates two distinct properties of probabilistic predictions: reliability (calibration error) and resolution (discriminatory power). We introduce the Manokhin Probability Matrix, a BCG-style two-dimensional diagnostic framework that separates them. Classifiers are placed on a 2x2 grid by Spiegelhalter Z-statistic and AUC-ROC expected rank, then assigned to one of four archetypes: Eagle (good on both axes), Bull (strong discrimination, poor calibration), Sloth (well-calibrated, weak discriminator), and Mole (poor on both). Each archetype carries a distinct prescription. We populate the matrix from a large-scale empirical study spanning 21 classifiers, 5 post-hoc calibrators, and 30 real-world binary classification tasks from the TabArena-v0.1 suite. The assignment is unambiguous. CatBoost, TabICL, EBM, TabPFN, GBC, and Random Forest are Eagles. XGBoost, LightGBM, and HGB are Bulls; Venn-Abers calibration cuts log-loss by 6.5 to 12.6% on Bulls but degrades Eagles by 2.1%. SVM, LR, LDA, and the empirical base-rate predictor are Sloths. MLP, KNN, Naive Bayes, and ExtraTrees are Moles. A theoretical asymmetry follows: no order-preserving post-hoc calibrator can add discriminatory power (Proposition 1), so calibration is the fixable part and discrimination is the hard part. The practical rule is direct: do not optimise aggregate Brier score without first decomposing it; optimise discrimination first, then fix calibration post-hoc. Code and raw experimental data are available at https://github.com/valeman/classifier_calibration.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Labeling articulated objects in unconstrained settings has a wide variety of applications including entertainment, neuroscience, psychology, ethology, and many fields of medicine. Large offline labeled datasets do not exist for all but the most common articulated object categories (e.g., humans). Hand labeling these landmarks within a video sequence is a laborious task. Learned landmark detectors can help, but can be error-prone when trained from only a few examples. Multi-camera systems that train fine-grained detectors have shown significant promise in detecting such errors, allowing for self-supervised solutions that only need a small percentage of the video sequence to be hand-labeled.

Variable selection in linear regression models has been a problem since hypothesis testing began. Which variables to include or exclude from a model is not an easy task. Techniques such as Forward, Back ward, Stepwise Regression sequentially add or delete variables from a model. Penalized likelihood methods such as AIC, BIC, etc. seek to choose variables that have a significant contribution to the likelihood. Penalized sum of square methods such as LASSO and Elastic Net have been used to penalize small coefficients to only allow variables with large coefficients in the model. This work introduces an Artificial Intelligence approach to model selection where an ANN is trained to determine the significance of the variables based on OLS estimates. A simulation study shows the accuracy across various sample sizes and variances. Furthermore, a simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the approach against Forward, Backward, AIC, BIC and LASSO. The approach is illustrated using a dataset from the World Health Organization regarding Life Expectancy. A github link is provided to the pretrained ANN that can handle up to 100 predictor variables, the original WHO dataset and the subset used in this work.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Combining test statistics from independent trials or experiments is a popular method of meta-analysis. However, there is very limited theoretical understanding of the power of the combined test, especially in high-dimensional models considering composite hypotheses tests. We derive a mathematical framework to study standard meta-analysis testing approaches in the context of the many normal means model, which serves as the platform to investigate more complex models. We introduce a natural and mild restriction on the meta-level combination functions of the local trials. This allows us to mathematically quantify the cost of compressing m trials into real-valued test statistics and combining these. We then derive minimax lower and matching upper bounds for the separation rates of standard combination methods for e.g.

As graph neural networks (GNNs) struggle with large-scale graphs due to high computational demands, graph data distillation promises to alleviate this issue by distilling a large real graph into a smaller distilled graph while maintaining comparable prediction performance for GNNs trained on both graphs. However, we observe that GNNs trained on distilled graphs may exhibit more severe group fairness issues than GNNs trained on real graphs for vanilla and fair GNNs training. Motivated by these observations, we propose fair graph distillation (FGD), an advanced graph distillation approach to generate fair distilled graphs. The challenge lies in the deficiency of sensitive attributes for nodes in the distilled graph, making most debiasing methods (e.g., regularization and adversarial debiasing) intractable for distilled graphs. We develop a simple yet effective bias metric, named coherence, for distilled graphs. Based on the proposed coherence metric, we introduce a framework for fair graph distillation using a bi-level optimization algorithm. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can achieve better prediction performance-fairness trade-offs across various datasets and GNN architectures.