Accuracy
Incremental Sequence Classification with Temporal Consistency
We address the problem of incremental sequence classification, where predictions are updated as new elements in the sequence are revealed. Drawing on temporaldifference learning from reinforcement learning, we identify a temporal-consistency condition that successive predictions should satisfy. We leverage this condition to develop a novel loss function for training incremental sequence classifiers. Through a concrete example, we demonstrate that optimizing this loss can offer substantial gains in data efficiency. We apply our method to text classification tasks and show that it improves predictive accuracy over competing approaches on several benchmark datasets. We further evaluate our approach on the task of verifying large language model generations for correctness in grade-school math problems. Our results show that models trained with our method are better able to distinguish promising generations from unpromising ones after observing only a few tokens.
Enhancing Tabular Foundation Models
Since the seminal work of TabPFN [16], research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Without seeing any real-world data, models pretrained on purely synthetic datasets generalize remarkably well across diverse datasets, often using only a moderate number of in-context examples. This shifts the focus in tabular machine learning from model architecture design to the design of synthetic datasets, or, more precisely, to the prior distributions that generate them. Yet the guiding principles for prior design remain poorly understood. This work marks the first attempt to address the gap. We systematically investigate and identify key properties of synthetic priors that allow pretrained TFMs to generalize well. Based on these insights, we introduce MITRA 1, a TFM trained on a curated mixture of synthetic priors selected for their diversity, distinctiveness, and performance on real-world tabular data. MITRA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TFMs, such as TabPFNv2 [17] and TabICL [29], across both classification and regression benchmarks, with better sample efficiency.
LibriBrain: Over 50 Hours of Within-Subject MEG to Improve Speech Decoding Methods at Scale
LibriBrain represents the largest single-subject MEG dataset to date for speech decoding, with over 50 hours of recordings--5 larger than the next comparable dataset and 50 larger than most. This unprecedented'depth' of within-subject data enables exploration of neural representations at a scale previously unavailable with non-invasive methods. LibriBrain comprises high-quality MEG recordings together with detailed annotations from a single participant listening to naturalistic spoken English, covering nearly the full Sherlock Holmes canon. Designed to support advances in neural decoding, LibriBrain comes with a Python library for streamlined integration with deep learning frameworks, standard data splits for reproducibility, and baseline results for three foundational decoding tasks: speech detection, phoneme classification, and word classification. Baseline experiments demonstrate that increasing training data yields substantial improvements in decoding performance, highlighting the value of scaling up deep, within-subject datasets. By releasing this dataset, we aim to empower the research community to advance speech decoding methodologies and accelerate the development of safe, effective clinical brain-computer interfaces.
ATechnical Report on " Erasing the Invisible ": The 2024 NeurIPS Competition on Stress Testing Image Watermarks
AI-generated images have become pervasive, raising critical concerns around content authenticity, intellectual property, and the spread of misinformation. Invisible watermarks offer a promising solution for identifying AI-generated images, preserving content provenance without degrading visual quality. However, their real-world robustness remains uncertain due to the lack of standardized evaluation protocols and large-scale stress testing. To bridge this gap, we organized "Erasing the Invisible," a NeurIPS 2024 competition and newly established benchmark designed to systematically stress testing the resilience of watermarking techniques. The competition introduced two attack tracks--Black-box and Beige-box--that simulate practical scenarios with varying levels of attacker knowledge on watermarks, providing a comprehensive assessment of watermark robustness.
VeriLoC: Line-of-Code Level Prediction of Hardware Design Quality from Verilog Code
Modern chip design is complex, and there is a crucial need for early-stage prediction of key design-quality metrics like timing and routing congestion directly from Verilog code (a commonly used programming language for hardware design). It is especially important yet complex to predict individual lines of code that cause timing violations or downstream routing congestion. Prior works have tried approaches like converting Verilog into an intermediate graph representation and using LLM embeddings alongside other features to predict module-level quality, but did not consider line-level quality prediction. We propose VeriLoC, the first method that predicts design quality directly from Verilog at both the line-and module-level. To this end, VeriLoC leverages recent Verilog codegeneration LLMs to extract local line-level and module-level embeddings, and trains downstream classifiers/regressors on concatenations of these embeddings.
A Deep Zero-Inflated Model of North Atlantic Right Whale Presence To Support Blue Economy Management in the U.S. East Coast
Ji, Jiaxiang, Nazzaro, Laura, Kohut, Josh, Ezzat, Ahmed Aziz
Effective modeling of endangered marine mammal species, such as the North Atlantic Right Whale, is critical for balancing marine conservation with the growing blue economy. Passive acoustic monitoring data collected by autonomous underwater vehicles provide new opportunities for localized marine species detection and oceanographic sensing, but introduce complex statistical challenges such as zero inflation, imperfect detection, and intricate dependence structures. In response, we propose the Deep Zero-Inflated Bernoulli (DeepZIB) model--a deep statistical method which jointly models latent species presence and conditional detection probabilities while learning complex habitat relationships from heterogeneous covariate information. We establish theoretical results on the model's structural properties and conduct simulation experiments to demonstrate its ability to recover underlying parameters and latent presence fields. Application to real-world passive acoustic monitoring data on the North Atlantic Right Whale along the U.S. East Coast demonstrates improved model adequacy and predictive performance in capturing the species' dynamic and spatially varying habitat. A key advantage of DeepZIB is its ability to generate high-resolution, spatially and temporally varying presence maps, providing valuable insights for targeted and risk-aware management of blue economy industries, ranging from offshore and marine energy, to fisheries management and maritime transport.
Conformal calibration and look-elsewhere effect in anomaly detection for new-physics searches
Araz, Jack Y., Spannowsky, Michael
Machine-learned anomaly detection is reshaping searches for new physics, but it has outrun the statistics used to interpret it. A raw anomaly score has no calibrated meaning, a model that scans many regions inflates the look-elsewhere effect, and the asymptotic significances the field relies on are blind to the background mismodelling that anomaly detectors are especially prone to. We propose a calibration layer, built on conformal prediction, that turns any anomaly score into a defensible significance with distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees. Conformal prediction converts scores into valid local p-values, weighted and Mondrian variants repair the sideband-to-signal-region exchangeability failures that resonant searches suffer, and a Gross-Vitells step carries the result through to a look-elsewhere-aware global significance. The layer does two things at once. It exposes miscalibration that the standard pipeline cannot see, and it corrects it without retraining the detector. On public LHC Olympics data, a classifier develops a substructure-mass correlation that makes sideband-calibrated background p-values anti-conservative. Taken at face value, this manufactures a $\sim 46σ$ excess from background sculpting alone, which the label-free weighted correction removes, restoring an honest null. When run as a blind wide-mass bump hunt, the standard asymptotic and unweighted procedures fabricate $\gtrsim10σ$ excesses and $\approx5σ$ excesses even in signal-free windows, while the conformal layer raises no false alarms and its global false-positive rate is verified on background-only pseudoexperiments. The result is an auditable, detector-agnostic path from an uncalibrated score to a trials-factor-aware significance, ready to be folded into experimental anomaly searches.
Some Optimizers are More Equal: Understanding the Role of Optimizers in Group Fairness
We study whether and how the choice of optimization algorithm can impact group fairness in deep neural networks. Through stochastic differential equation analysis of optimization dynamics in an analytically tractable setup, we demonstrate that the choice of optimization algorithm indeed influences fairness outcomes, particularly under severe imbalance. Furthermore, we show that when comparing two categories of optimizers, adaptive methods and stochastic methods, RMSProp (from the adaptive category) has a higher likelihood of converging to fairer minima than SGD (from the stochastic category). Building on this insight, we derive two new theoretical guarantees showing that, under appropriate conditions, RMSProp exhibits fairer parameter updates and improved fairness in a single optimization step compared to SGD.