Nowadays, there are numerous risks related to bank loans both for the banks and the borrowers getting the loans. The risk analysis about bank loans needs understanding about the risk and the risk level. Banks need to analyze their customers for loan eligibility so that they can specifically target those customers. Banks wanted to automate the loan eligibility process (real time) based on customer details such as Gender, Marital Status, Age, Occupation, Income, debts, and others provided in their online application form. As the number of transactions in banking sector is rapidly growing and huge data volumes are available, the customers' behavior can be easily analyzed and the risks around loan can be reduced.

Decision trees algorithms use a gain function to select the best split during the tree's induction. This function is crucial to obtain trees with high predictive accuracy. Some gain functions can suffer from a bias when it compares splits of different arities. Quinlan proposed a gain ratio in C4.5's information gain function to fix this bias. In this paper, we present an updated version of the gain ratio that performs better as it tries to fix the gain ratio's bias for unbalanced trees and some splits with low predictive interest.

Kangaroo Kapital is the largest credit card company in Australia. Animals across the continent use Kangaroo Kapital credit cards to make all of their daily purchases, racking up points in the company's reward system. Since Australian animals have traditionally not worn much clothing, the challenges of carrying around cash are substantial. Only having to keep track of a single credit card is a big help for your average working wallaby. But since Australian animals have typically not worn much clothing, they still have a problem keeping track of even a single credit card.

Training set bugs are flaws in the data that adversely affect machine learning. The training set is usually too large for man- ual inspection, but one may have the resources to verify a few trusted items. The set of trusted items may not by itself be adequate for learning, so we propose an algorithm that uses these items to identify bugs in the training set and thus im- proves learning. Specifically, our approach seeks the smallest set of changes to the training set labels such that the model learned from this corrected training set predicts labels of the trusted items correctly. We flag the items whose labels are changed as potential bugs, whose labels can be checked for veracity by human experts. To find the bugs in this way is a challenging combinatorial bilevel optimization problem, but it can be relaxed into a continuous optimization problem. Ex- periments on toy and real data demonstrate that our approach can identify training set bugs effectively and suggest appro- priate changes to the labels. Our algorithm is a step toward trustworthy machine learning.

Finding Tiny Faces (by Hu and Ramanan) proposes a novel approach to find small objects in an image. Our contribution consists in deeply understanding the choices of the paper together with applying and extending a similar method to a real world subject which is the counting of people in a public demonstration.

Chaitanya Sagar is the Founder and CEO of Perceptive Analytics. Perceptive Analytics has been chosen as one of the top 10 analytics companies to watch out for by Analytics India Magazine.

As an analyst, if you are looking at a metric to measure and maximize the overall accuracy of the classification model, MCC seems to the best bet since it is not only easily interpretable but also robust to changes in the prediction goal.

Online A/B testing evaluates the impact of a new technology by running it in a real production environment and testing its performance on a subset of the users of the platform. It is a well-known practice to run a preliminary offline evaluation on historical data to iterate faster on new ideas, and to detect poor policies in order to avoid losing money or breaking the system. For such offline evaluations, we are interested in methods that can compute offline an estimate of the potential uplift of performance generated by a new technology. Offline performance can be measured using estimators known as counterfactual or off-policy estimators. Traditional counterfactual estimators, such as capped importance sampling or normalised importance sampling, exhibit unsatisfying bias-variance compromises when experimenting on personalized product recommendation systems. To overcome this issue, we model the bias incurred by these estimators rather than bound it in the worst case, which leads us to propose a new counterfactual estimator. We provide a benchmark of the different estimators showing their correlation with business metrics observed by running online A/B tests on a large-scale commercial recommender system.

Recent studies have shown that tuning prediction models increases prediction accuracy and that Random Forest can be used to construct prediction intervals. However, to our best knowledge, no study has investigated the need to, and the manner in which one can, tune Random Forest for optimizing prediction intervals { this paper aims to fill this gap. We explore a tuning approach that combines an effectively exhaustive search with a validation technique on a single Random Forest parameter. This paper investigates which, out of eight validation techniques, are beneficial for tuning, i.e., which automatically choose a Random Forest configuration constructing prediction intervals that are reliable and with a smaller width than the default configuration. Additionally, we present and validate three meta-validation techniques to determine which are beneficial, i.e., those which automatically chose a beneficial validation technique. This study uses data from our industrial partner (Keymind Inc.) and the Tukutuku Research Project, related to post-release defect prediction and Web application effort estimation, respectively. Results from our study indicate that: i) the default configuration is frequently unreliable, ii) most of the validation techniques, including previously successfully adopted ones such as 50/50 holdout and bootstrap, are counterproductive in most of the cases, and iii) the 75/25 holdout meta-validation technique is always beneficial; i.e., it avoids the likely counterproductive effects of validation techniques.

In this paper, we consider the problem of fair statistical inference involving outcome variables. Examples include classification and regression problems, and estimating treatment effects in randomized trials or observational data. The issue of fairness arises in such problems where some covariates or treatments are "sensitive," in the sense of having potential of creating discrimination. In this paper, we argue that the presence of discrimination can be formalized in a sensible way as the presence of an effect of a sensitive covariate on the outcome along certain causal pathways, a view which generalizes (Pearl, 2009). A fair outcome model can then be learned by solving a constrained optimization problem. We discuss a number of complications that arise in classical statistical inference due to this view and provide workarounds based on recent work in causal and semi-parametric inference.