When concept drift is detected during classification in a data stream, a common remedy is to retrain a framework's classifier. However, this loses useful information if the classifier has learnt the current concept well, and this concept will recur again in the future. Some frameworks retain and reuse classifiers, but it can be time-consuming to select an appropriate classifier to reuse. These frameworks rarely match the accuracy of state-of-the-art ensemble approaches. For many data stream tasks, speed is important: fast, accurate frameworks are needed for time-dependent applications. We propose the Enhanced Concept Profiling Framework (ECPF), which aims to recognise recurring concepts and reuse a classifier trained previously, enabling accurate classification immediately following a drift. The novelty of ECPF is in how it uses similarity of classifications on new data, between a new classifier and existing classifiers, to quickly identify the best classifier to reuse. It always trains both a new classifier and a reused classifier, and retains the more accurate classifier when concept drift occurs. Finally, it creates a copy of reused classifiers, so a classifier well-suited for a recurring concept will not be impacted by being trained on a different concept. In our experiments, ECPF classifies significantly more accurately than a state-of-the-art classifier reuse framework (Diversity Pool) and a state-of-the-art ensemble technique (Adaptive Random Forest) on synthetic datasets with recurring concepts. It classifies real-world datasets five times faster than Diversity Pool, and six times faster than Adaptive Random Forest and is not significantly less accurate than either.

Road accidents are an important issue of our modern societies, responsible for millions of deaths and injuries every year in the world. In Quebec only, road accidents are responsible for hundreds of deaths and tens of thousands of injuries. In this paper, we show how one can leverage open datasets of a city like Montreal, Canada, to create high-resolution accident prediction models, using state-of-the-art big data analytics. Compared to other studies in road accident prediction, we have a much higher prediction resolution, i.e., our models predict the occurrence of an accident within an hour, on road segments defined by intersections. Such models could be used in the context of road accident prevention, but also to identify key factors that can lead to a road accident, and consequently, help elaborate new policies. We tested various machine learning methods to deal with the severe class imbalance inherent to accident prediction problems. In particular, we implemented the Balanced Random Forest algorithm, a variant of the Random Forest machine learning algorithm in Apache Spark. Experimental results show that 85% of road vehicle collisions are detected by our model with a false positive rate of 13%. The examples identified as positive are likely to correspond to high-risk situations. In addition, we identify the most important predictors of vehicle collisions for the area of Montreal: the count of accidents on the same road segment during previous years, the temperature, the day of the year, the hour and the visibility.

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of using an attention-based neural network for predicting the risk of readmission within 30 days of discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) based on longitudinal electronic medical record (EMR) data and to leverage the interpretability of the model to describe patients-at-risk. Methods: A "time-aware attention" model was trained using publicly available EMR data (MIMIC-III) associated with 45,298 ICU stays for 33,150 patients. The analysed EMR data included static (patient demographics) and timestamped variables (diagnoses, procedures, medications, and vital signs). Bayesian inference was used to compute the posterior distribution of network weights. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model was compared with several baseline models and evaluated based on average precision, AUROC, and F1-Score. Odds ratios (ORs) associated with an increased risk of readmission were computed for static variables. Diagnoses, procedures, and medications were ranked according to the associated risk of readmission. The model was also used to generate reports with predicted risk (and associated uncertainty) justified by specific diagnoses, procedures, medications, and vital signs. Results: A Bayesian ensemble of 10 time-aware attention models led to the highest predictive accuracy (average precision: 0.282, AUROC: 0.738, F1-Score: 0.353). Male gender, number of recent admissions, age, admission location, insurance type, and ethnicity were all associated with risk of readmission. A longer length of stay in the ICU was found to reduce the risk of readmission (OR: 0.909, 95% credible interval: 0.902, 0.916). Groups of patients at risk included those requiring cardiovascular or ventilatory support, those with poor nutritional state, and those for whom standard medical care was not suitable, e.g. due to contraindications to surgery or medications.

The main aim of this work is to develop and implement an automatic anomaly detection algorithm for meteorological time-series. To achieve this goal we develop an approach to constructing an ensemble of anomaly detectors in combination with adaptive threshold selection based on artificially generated anomalies. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method by integrating the corresponding implementation into ``Minimax-94'' road weather information system.

Univariate and multivariate feature selection methods can be used for biomarker discovery in analysis of toxicant exposure. Among the univariate methods, differential expression analysis (DEA) is often applied for its simplicity and interpretability. A characteristic of methods for DEA is that they treat genes individually, disregarding the correlation that exists between them. On the other hand, some multivariate feature selection methods are proposed for biomarker discovery. Provided with various biomarker discovery methods, how to choose the most suitable method for a specific dataset becomes a problem. In this paper, we present a framework for comparison of potential biomarker discovery methods: three methods that stem from different theories are compared by how stable they are and how well they can improve the classification accuracy. The three methods we have considered are: Significance Analysis of Microarrays (SAM) which identifies the differentially expressed genes; minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) based on information theory; and Characteristic Direction (GeoDE) inspired by a graphical perspective. Tested on the gene expression data from two experiments exposing the cod fish to two different toxicants (MeHg and PCB 153), different methods stand out in different cases, so a decision upon the most suitable method should be made based on the dataset under study and the research interest.

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has been shown to provide a flexible framework for decision making under uncertainty and statistical estimation. For example, recent works in DRO have shown that popular statistical estimators can be interpreted as the solutions of suitable formulated data-driven DRO problems. In turn, this connection is used to optimally select tuning parameters in terms of a principled approach informed by robustness considerations. This paper contributes to this growing literature, connecting DRO and statistics, by showing how boosting algorithms can be studied via DRO. We propose a boosting type algorithm, named DRO-Boosting, as a procedure to solve our DRO formulation. Our DRO-Boosting algorithm recovers Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) in particular, thus showing that AdaBoost is effectively solving a DRO problem. We apply our algorithm to a financial dataset on credit card default payment prediction. We find that our approach compares favorably to alternative boosting methods which are widely used in practice.

A large body of research into semantic textual similarity has focused on constructing state-of-the-art embeddings using sophisticated modelling, careful choice of learning signals and many clever tricks. By contrast, little attention has been devoted to similarity measures between these embeddings, with cosine similarity being used unquestionably in the majority of cases. In this work, we illustrate that for all common word vectors, cosine similarity is essentially equivalent to the Pearson correlation coefficient, which provides some justification for its use. We thoroughly characterise cases where Pearson correlation (and thus cosine similarity) is unfit as similarity measure. Importantly, we show that Pearson correlation is appropriate for some word vectors but not others. When it is not appropriate, we illustrate how common non-parametric rank correlation coefficients can be used instead to significantly improve performance. We support our analysis with a series of evaluations on word-level and sentence-level semantic textual similarity benchmarks. On the latter, we show that even the simplest averaged word vectors compared by rank correlation easily rival the strongest deep representations compared by cosine similarity.

Semantic Embeddings are a popular way to represent knowledge in the field of zero-shot learning. We observe their interpretability and discuss their potential utility in a safety-critical context. Concretely, we propose to use them to add introspection and error detection capabilities to neural network classifiers. First, we show how to create embeddings from symbolic domain knowledge. We discuss how to use them for interpreting mispredictions and propose a simple error detection scheme. We then introduce the concept of semantic distance: a real-valued score that measures confidence in the semantic space. We evaluate this score on a traffic sign classifier and find that it achieves near state-of-the-art performance, while being significantly faster to compute than other confidence scores. Our approach requires no changes to the original network and is thus applicable to any task for which domain knowledge is available.

Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations should satisfy two properties: feasibility of the counterfactual actions given user context and constraints, and diversity among the counterfactuals presented. To this end, we propose a framework for generating and evaluating a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on average distance and determinantal point processes. To evaluate the actionability of counterfactuals, we provide metrics that enable comparison of counterfactual-based methods to other local explanation methods. We further address necessary tradeoffs and point to causal implications in optimizing for counterfactuals. Our experiments on three real-world datasets show that our framework can generate a set of counterfactuals that are diverse and well approximate local decision boundaries.

Sequence classification is an important data mining task in many real world applications. Over the past few decades, many sequence classification methods have been proposed from different aspects. In particular, the pattern-based method is one of the most important and widely studied sequence classification methods in the literature. In this paper, we present a reference-based sequence classification framework, which can unify existing pattern-based sequence classification methods under the same umbrella. More importantly, this framework can be used as a general platform for developing new sequence classification algorithms. By utilizing this framework as a tool, we propose new sequence classification algorithms that are quite different from existing solutions. Experimental results show that new methods developed under the proposed framework are capable of achieving comparable classification accuracy to those state-of-the-art sequence classification algorithms.