This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

Context: The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into core software systems is accelerating. However, existing software architecture patterns are static, while current safety assurance methods are not scalable, leaving systems vulnerable to novel adversarial threats. Objective: To design, implement, and evaluate a novel software architecture that enables an AI-driven system to autonomously and continuously adapt its own safety protocols at runtime. Method: We propose the Self-Improving Safety Framework (SISF), a runtime architecture that couples an unprotected, unaligned base LLM (mistralai/Mistral-7B-v0.1) with a dynamic feedback loop. This loop consists of an AI Adjudicator (GPT-4o) for breach detection and a Policy Synthesis Module (GPT-4 Turbo) that autonomously generates new, generalized safety policies (both heuristic and semantic) in response to failures. Results: We conducted a dynamic learning evaluation using the 520-prompt AdvBench dataset. The unprotected model was 100% vulnerable. Our SISF, starting from zero policies, demonstrated a clear learning curve: it detected 237 breaches, autonomously synthesized 234 new policies, and reduced the overall Attack Success Rate (ASR) to 45.58%. In a subsequent test on 520 benign prompts, the SISF achieved a 0.00% False Positive Rate (FPR), proving its ability to adapt without compromising user utility. Conclusion: An architectural approach to AI safety, based on the principles of self-adaptation, is a viable and effective strategy. Our framework demonstrates a practical path towards building more robust, resilient, and scalable AI-driven systems, shifting safety assurance from a static, pre-deployment activity to an automated, runtime process.

Anomaly detection has a significant impact on applications such as video surveillance, medical diagnostics, and industrial monitoring, where anomalies frequently depend on context and anomaly-labeled data are limited. Quantum federated learning (QFL) overcomes these concerns by distributing model training among several quantum clients, consequently eliminating the requirement for centralized quantum storage and processing. However, in real-life quantum networks, clients frequently differ in terms of hardware capabilities, circuit designs, noise levels, and how classical data is encoded or preprocessed into quantum states. These differences create inherent heterogeneity across clients - not just in their data distributions, but also in their quantum processing behaviors. As a result, training a single global model becomes ineffective, especially when clients handle imbalanced or non-identically distributed (non-IID) data. To address this, we propose a new framework called personalized quantum federated learning (PQFL) for anomaly detection. PQFL enhances local model training at quantum clients using parameterized quantum circuits and classical optimizers, while introducing a quantum-centric personalization strategy that adapts each client's model to its own hardware characteristics and data representation. Extensive experiments show that PQFL significantly improves anomaly detection accuracy under diverse and realistic conditions. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, PQFL reduces false errors by up to 23%, and achieves gains of 24.2% in AUROC and 20.5% in AUPR, highlighting its effectiveness and scalability in practical quantum federated settings.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has driven significant progress in Natural Language Interface to Database (NLIDB). However, the widespread adoption of LLMs has raised critical privacy and security concerns. During interactions, LLMs may unintentionally expose confidential database contents or be manipulated by attackers to exfiltrate data through seemingly benign queries. While current efforts typically rely on rule-based heuristics or LLM agents to mitigate this leakage risk, these methods still struggle with complex inference-based attacks, suffer from high false positive rates, and often compromise the reliability of SQL queries. To address these challenges, we propose \textsc{SafeNlidb}, a novel privacy-security alignment framework for LLM-based NLIDB. The framework features an automated pipeline that generates hybrid chain-of-thought interaction data from scratch, seamlessly combining implicit security reasoning with SQL generation. Additionally, we introduce reasoning warm-up and alternating preference optimization to overcome the multi-preference oscillations of Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), enabling LLMs to produce security-aware SQL through fine-grained reasoning without the need for human-annotated preference data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms both larger-scale LLMs and ideal-setting baselines, achieving significant security improvements while preserving high utility. WARNING: This work may contain content that is offensive and harmful!

Abstract--This paper introduces a novel framework for enhancing Random Forest classifiers by integrating probabilistic feature sampling and hyperparameter tuning via Simulated Annealing. The proposed framework exhibits substantial advancements in predictive accuracy and generalization, adeptly tackling the multifaceted challenges of robust classification across diverse domains, including credit risk evaluation, anomaly detection in IoT ecosystems, early-stage medical diagnostics, and high-dimensional biological data analysis. T o overcome the limitations of conventional Random Forests, we present an approach that places stronger emphasis on capturing the most relevant signals from data while enabling adaptive hyperparameter configuration. The model is guided towards features that contribute more meaningfully to classification and optimizing this with dynamic parameter tuning. The results demonstrate consistent accuracy improvements and meaningful insights into feature relevance, showcasing the efficacy of combining importance aware sampling and metaheuristic optimization. RFs are widely used ensemble learning methods known for their robustness, interpretability, scalability and performance across diverse machine learning tasks.

Recent disentangled representation learning (DRL) methods heavily rely on factor specific strategies-either learning objectives for attributes or model architectures for objects-to embed inductive biases. Such divergent approaches result in significant overhead when novel factors of variation do not align with prior assumptions, such as statistical independence or spatial exclusivity, or when multiple factors coexist, as practitioners must redesign architectures or objectives. To address this, we propose a compositional bias, a modular inductive bias decoupled from both objectives and architectures. Our key insight is that different factors obey distinct recombination rules in the data distribution: global attributes are mutually exclusive, e.g., a face has one nose, while objects share a common support (any subset of objects can co-exist). We therefore randomly remix latents according to factor-specific rules, i.e., a mixing strategy, and force the encoder to discover whichever factor structure the mixing strategy reflects through two complementary objectives: (i) a prior loss that ensures every remix decodes into a realistic image, and (ii) the compositional consistency loss introduced by Wiedemer et al. (arXiv:2310.05327), which aligns each composite image with its corresponding composite latent. Under this general framework, simply adjusting the mixing strategy enables disentanglement of attributes, objects, and even both, without modifying the objectives or architectures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method shows competitive performance in both attribute and object disentanglement, and uniquely achieves joint disentanglement of global style and objects. Code is available at https://github.com/whieya/Compositional-DRL.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated remarkable success in node classification tasks over relational data, yet their effectiveness often depends on the availability of complete node features. In many real-world scenarios, however, feature matrices are highly sparse or contain sensitive information, leading to degraded performance and increased privacy risks. Furthermore, direct exposure of information can result in unintended data leakage, enabling adversaries to infer sensitive information. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Multi-view Feature Propagation (MFP) framework that enhances node classification under feature sparsity while promoting privacy preservation. MFP extends traditional Feature Propagation (FP) by dividing the available features into multiple Gaussian-noised views, each propagating information independently through the graph topology. The aggregated representations yield expressive and robust node embeddings. This framework is novel in two respects: it introduces a mechanism that improves robustness under extreme sparsity, and it provides a principled way to balance utility with privacy. Extensive experiments conducted on graph datasets demonstrate that MFP outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in node classification while substantially reducing privacy leakage. Moreover, our analysis demonstrates that propagated outputs serve as alternative imputations rather than reconstructions of the original features, preserving utility without compromising privacy. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis further confirms the stability and practical applicability of MFP across diverse scenarios. Overall, MFP provides an effective and privacy-aware framework for graph learning in domains characterized by missing or sensitive features.

Clinical dataset labels are rarely certain as annotators disagree and confidence is not uniform across cases. Typical aggregation procedures, such as majority voting, obscure this variability. In simple experiments on medical imaging benchmarks, accounting for the confidence in binary labels significantly impacts model rankings. We therefore argue that machine-learning evaluations should explicitly account for annotation uncertainty using probabilistic metrics that directly operate on distributions. These metrics can be applied independently of the annotations' generating process, whether modeled by simple counting, subjective confidence ratings, or probabilistic response models. They are also computationally lightweight, as closed-form expressions have linear-time implementations once examples are sorted by model score. We thus urge the community to release raw annotations for datasets and to adopt uncertainty-aware evaluation so that performance estimates may better reflect clinical data.

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have demonstrated strong performance in generative modeling, particularly in image synthesis, making them a compelling choice for molecular conformer generation. However, applying DiTs to molecules introduces novel challenges, such as integrating discrete molecular graph information with continuous 3D geometry, handling Euclidean symmetries, and designing conditioning mechanisms that generalize across molecules of varying sizes and structures. We propose DiTMC, a framework that adapts DiTs to address these challenges through a modular architecture that separates the processing of 3D coordinates from conditioning on atomic connectivity. To this end, we introduce two complementary graph-based conditioning strategies that integrate seamlessly with the DiT architecture. These are combined with different attention mechanisms, including both standard non-equivariant and SO(3)-equivariant formulations, enabling flexible control over the trade-off between between accuracy and computational efficiency. Experiments on standard conformer generation benchmarks (GEOM-QM9, -DRUGS, -XL) demonstrate that DiTMC achieves state-of-the-art precision and physical validity. Our results highlight how architectural choices and symmetry priors affect sample quality and efficiency, suggesting promising directions for large-scale generative modeling of molecular structures. Code is available at https://github.com/ML4MolSim/dit_mc.

False negatives pose a critical challenge in vision-language pretraining (VLP) due to the many-to-many correspondence between images and texts in large-scale datasets. These false negatives introduce conflicting supervision signals that degrade the learned embedding space and diminish the effectiveness of hard negative sampling. In this paper, we propose FALCON (False-negative Aware Learning of COntrastive Negatives), a learning-based mini-batch construction strategy that adaptively balances the trade-off between hard and false negatives during VLP. Rather than relying on fixed heuristics, FALCON employs a negative mining scheduler that dynamically selects negative samples of appropriate hardness for each anchor instance during mini-batch construction, guided by a proxy for cross-modal alignment improvement. Experimental results demonstrate that FALCON significantly improves performance across three vision-language learning frameworks (ALBEF, BLIP-2, SigLIP-2) and a broad range of downstream tasks and evaluation settings, underscoring its effectiveness and robustness in mitigating the impact of false negatives.