Abstract--Online detection of anomalies in time series is a key technique in various event-sensitive scenarios such a s robotic system monitoring, smart sensor networks and data center security. However, the increasing diversity of data sources and demands are making this task more challenging than ever . First, the rapid increase of unlabeled data makes supervise d learning no longer suitable in many cases. Second, a great po rtion of time series have complex seasonality features. Third, on -line anomaly detection needs to be fast and reliable. In view of this, we in this paper adopt an unsupervised prediction-dri ven approach on the basis of a backbone model combining a series decomposition part and an inference part. We then propose a novel metric, Local Trend Inconsistency (L TI), along with a detection algorithm that efficiently computes L TI chronolo gically along the series and marks each data point with a score indica ting its probability of being anomalous. The result shows that our scheme outperforms several representative anomaly detection alg orithms in Area Under Curve (AUC) metric with decent time efficiency. While time series data has been ubiquitous before the coming of big data era, a large number of recently emerging technical scenarios like autonomous driving, edge computi ng and Internet of Things (IoT) pose new challenges to the detection of anomalies in this type of data. In the meantime, detection techniques that can provide early, reliable repo rts of anomaly has become crucial for a wide range of systems requiring 24/7 monitoring services. In cloud data centers, for example, a distributed monitoring system usually collects a variety of log data from virtual machine level to cluster lev el on a regular basis and sends them to a central detection module, which needs to analyze the aggregated time series to detect any anomalous events including hardware breakdown, unavailable services and cyber attacks. This requires an on - line detector capable of making reliable detections (i.e., with strong sensitivity and specificity), otherwise it could bri ng about unnecessary cost of maintenance.

We study the relationship between catastrophic forgetting and properties of task sequences. In particular, given a sequence of tasks, we would like to understand which properties of this sequence influence the error rates of continual learning algorithms trained on the sequence. To this end, we propose a new procedure that makes use of recent developments in task space modeling as well as correlation analysis to specify and analyze the properties we are interested in. As an application, we apply our procedure to study two properties of a task sequence: (1) total complexity and (2) sequential heterogeneity. We show that error rates are strongly and positively correlated to a task sequence's total complexity for some state-of-the-art algorithms. We also show that, surprisingly, the error rates have no or even negative correlations in some cases to sequential heterogeneity. Our findings suggest directions for improving continual learning benchmarks and methods.

After admission to emergency department (ED), patients with critical illnesses are transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) due to unexpected clinical deterioration occurrence. Identifying such unplanned ICU transfers is urgently needed for medical physicians to achieve two-fold goals: improving critical care quality and preventing mortality. A priority task is to understand the crucial rationale behind diagnosis results of individual patients during stay in ED, which helps prepare for an early transfer to ICU. Most existing prediction studies were based on univariate analysis or multiple logistic regression to provide one-size-fit-all results. However, patient condition varying from case to case may not be accurately examined by the only judgment. In this study, we present a new decision tool using a mathematical optimization approach aiming to automatically discover rules associating diagnostic features with high-risk outcome (i.e., unplanned transfers) in different deterioration scenarios. We consider four mutually exclusive patient subgroups based on the principal reasons of ED visits: infections, cardiovascular/respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, and neurological/other diseases at a suburban teaching hospital. The analysis results demonstrate significant rules associated with unplanned transfer outcome for each subgroups and also show comparable prediction accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art machine learning methods while providing easy-to-interpret symptom-outcome information.

Understanding the connectivity in the brain is an important prerequisite for understanding how the brain processes information. In the Brain/MINDS project, a connectivity study on marmoset brains uses two-photon microscopy fluorescence images of axonal projections to collect the neuron connectivity from defined brain regions at the mesoscopic scale. The processing of the images requires the detection and segmentation of the axonal tracer signal. The objective is to detect as much tracer signal as possible while not misclassifying other background structures as the signal. This can be challenging because of imaging noise, a cluttered image background, distortions or varying image contrast cause problems. We are developing MarmoNet, a pipeline that processes and analyzes tracer image data of the common marmoset brain. The pipeline incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning techniques based on artificial convolutional neural networks (CNN) and image registration techniques to extract and map all relevant information in a robust manner. The pipeline processes new images in a fully automated way. This report introduces the current state of the tracer signal analysis part of the pipeline.

We trained and evaluated a localization-based deep CNN for breast cancer screening exam classification on over 200,000 exams (over 1,000,000 images). Our model achieves an AUC of 0.919 in predicting malignancy in patients undergoing breast cancer screening, reducing the error rate of the baseline (Wu et al., 2019a) by 23%. In addition, the models generates bounding boxes for benign and malignant findings, providing interpretable predictions.

The document contains the following terms with appropriate definitions: Medical dataset (reference data) is a collection of high-level attributes of reusable medical image datasets suitable to train, test, validate, verify, and regulate AI algorithms. Intellectual technologies are information technologies created based on "artificial intelligence" . " Artificial Intelligence" (AI) refers to systems that display intelligent behavior by analyzing their environment and taking actions - with some degree of autonomy - to achieve specific goals. AIbased systems can be purely software-based, acting in the virtual world (e.g., voice assistants, image analysis software, search engines, speech and face recognition systems) or AI can be embedded in hardware devices (e.g., advanced robots, autonomous cars, drones, or Internet of Things applications) [6]. Mathematical model is an abstract mathematical representation of a process, device or concept; it uses a number of variables to represent inputs, outputs and internal states, and sets of equations and inequalities to describe their interaction.

Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in medical image enhancement problems, such as super-resolution or image synthesis. However, to date, little consideration has been given to uncertainty quantification over the output image. Here we introduce methods to characterise different components of uncertainty in such problems and demonstrate the ideas using diffusion MRI super-resolution. Specifically, we propose to account for $intrinsic$ uncertainty through a heteroscedastic noise model and for $parameter$ uncertainty through approximate Bayesian inference, and integrate the two to quantify $predictive$ uncertainty over the output image. Moreover, we introduce a method to propagate the predictive uncertainty on a multi-channelled image to derived scalar parameters, and separately quantify the effects of intrinsic and parameter uncertainty therein. The methods are evaluated for super-resolution of two different signal representations of diffusion MR images---DTIs and Mean Apparent Propagator MRI---and their derived quantities such as MD and FA, on multiple datasets of both healthy and pathological human brains. Results highlight three key benefits of uncertainty modelling for improving the safety of DL-based image enhancement systems. Firstly, incorporating uncertainty improves the predictive performance even when test data departs from training data. Secondly, the predictive uncertainty highly correlates with errors, and is therefore capable of detecting predictive "failures". Results demonstrate that such an uncertainty measure enables subject-specific and voxel-wise risk assessment of the output images. Thirdly, we show that the method for decomposing predictive uncertainty into its independent sources provides high-level "explanations" for the performance by quantifying how much uncertainty arises from the inherent difficulty of the task or the limited training examples.

N-grams have been a common tool for information retrieval and machine learning applications for decades. In nearly all previous works, only a few values of $n$ are tested, with $n > 6$ being exceedingly rare. Larger values of $n$ are not tested due to computational burden or the fear of overfitting. In this work, we present a method to find the top-$k$ most frequent $n$-grams that is 60$\times$ faster for small $n$, and can tackle large $n\geq1024$. Despite the unprecedented size of $n$ considered, we show how these features still have predictive ability for malware classification tasks. More important, large $n$-grams provide benefits in producing features that are interpretable by malware analysis, and can be used to create general purpose signatures compatible with industry standard tools like Yara. Furthermore, the counts of common $n$-grams in a file may be added as features to publicly available human-engineered features that rival efficacy of professionally-developed features when used to train gradient-boosted decision tree models on the EMBER dataset.

Many versions of cross-validation (CV) exist in the literature; and each version though has different variants. All are used interchangeably by many practitioners; yet, without explanation to the connection or difference among them. This article has three contributions. First, it starts by mathematical formalization of these different versions and variants that estimate the error rate and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of a classification rule, to show the connection and difference among them. Second, we prove some of their properties and prove that many variants are either redundant or "not smooth". Hence, we suggest to abandon all redundant versions and variants and only keep the leave-one-out, the $K$-fold, and the repeated $K$-fold. We show that the latter is the only among the three versions that is "smooth" and hence looks mathematically like estimating the mean performance of the classification rules. However, empirically, for the known phenomenon of "weak correlation", which we explain mathematically and experimentally, it estimates both conditional and mean performance almost with the same accuracy. Third, we conclude the article with suggesting two research points that may answer the remaining question of whether we can come up with a finalist among the three estimators: (1) a comparative study, that is much more comprehensive than those available in literature and conclude no overall winner, is needed to consider a wide range of distributions, datasets, and classifiers including complex ones obtained via the recent deep learning approach. (2) we sketch the path of deriving a rigorous method for estimating the variance of the only "smooth" version, repeated $K$-fold CV, rather than those ad-hoc methods available in the literature that ignore the covariance structure among the folds of CV.

As machine learning becomes an important part of many real world applications affecting human lives, new requirements, besides high predictive accuracy, become important. One important requirement is transparency, which has been associated with model interpretability. Many machine learning algorithms induce models difficult to interpret, named black box. Moreover, people have difficulty to trust models that cannot be explained. In particular for machine learning, many groups are investigating new methods able to explain black box models. These methods usually look inside the black models to explain their inner work. By doing so, they allow the interpretation of the decision making process used by black box models. Among the recently proposed model interpretation methods, there is a group, named local estimators, which are designed to explain how the label of particular instance is predicted. For such, they induce interpretable models on the neighborhood of the instance to be explained. Local estimators have been successfully used to explain specific predictions. Although they provide some degree of model interpretability, it is still not clear what is the best way to implement and apply them. Open questions include: how to best define the neighborhood of an instance? How to control the trade-off between the accuracy of the interpretation method and its interpretability? How to make the obtained solution robust to small variations on the instance to be explained? To answer to these questions, we propose and investigate two strategies: (i) using data instance properties to provide improved explanations, and (ii) making sure that the neighborhood of an instance is properly defined by taking the geometry of the domain of the feature space into account. We evaluate these strategies in a regression task and present experimental results that show that they can improve local explanations.