In this work we introduce the DP-auto-GAN framework for synthetic data generation, which combines the low dimensional representation of autoencoders with the flexibility of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). This framework can be used to take in raw sensitive data, and privately train a model for generating synthetic data that will satisfy the same statistical properties as the original data. This learned model can be used to generate arbitrary amounts of publicly available synthetic data, which can then be freely shared due to the post-processing guarantees of differential privacy. Our framework is applicable to unlabeled mixed-type data, that may include binary, categorical, and real-valued data. We implement this framework on both unlabeled binary data (MIMIC-III) and unlabeled mixed-type data (ADULT). We also introduce new metrics for evaluating the quality of synthetic mixed-type data, particularly in unsupervised settings.

Forecasting severe weather conditions is still a very challenging and computationally expensive task due to the enormous amount of data and the complexity of the underlying physics. Machine learning approaches and especially deep learning have however shown huge improvements in many research areas dealing with large datasets in recent years. In this work, we tackle one specific sub-problem of weather forecasting, namely the prediction of thunderstorms and lightning. We propose the use of a convolutional neural network architecture inspired by UNet++ and ResNet to predict thunderstorms as a binary classification problem based on satellite images and lightnings recorded in the past. We achieve a probability of detection of more than 94% for lightnings within the next 15 minutes while at the same time minimizing the false alarm ratio compared to previous approaches.

This article comes from Diego Usai, a student in Business Science University. Diego has completed both 101 (Data Science Foundations) and 201 (Advanced Machine Learning & Business Consulting) courses. Diego shows off his progress in this Customer Churn Tutorial using Machine Learning with parsnip. Diego originally posted the article on his personal website, diegousai.io, Recently I have completed the online course Business Analysis With R focused on applied data and business science with R, which introduced me to a couple of new modelling concepts and approaches.

We consider the problem of learning causal relationships from relational data. Existing approaches rely on queries to a relational conditional independence (RCI) oracle to establish and orient causal relations in such a setting. In practice, queries to a RCI oracle have to be replaced by reliable tests for RCI against available data. Relational data present several unique challenges in testing for RCI. We study the conditions under which traditional iid-based conditional independence (CI) tests yield reliable answers to RCI queries against relational data. We show how to conduct CI tests against relational data to robustly recover the underlying relational causal structure. Results of our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

We describe a formal approach to identify 'root causes' of outliers observed in $n$ variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ in a scenario where the causal relation between the variables is a known directed acyclic graph (DAG). To this end, we first introduce a systematic way to define outlier scores. Further, we introduce the concept of 'conditional outlier score' which measures whether a value of some variable is unexpected *given the value of its parents* in the DAG, if one were to assume that the causal structure and the corresponding conditional distributions are also valid for the anomaly. Finally, we quantify to what extent the high outlier score of some target variable can be attributed to outliers of its ancestors. This quantification is defined via Shapley values from cooperative game theory.

We seek to align agent behavior with a user's objectives in a reinforcement learning setting with unknown dynamics, an unknown reward function, and unknown unsafe states. The user knows the rewards and unsafe states, but querying the user is expensive. To address this challenge, we propose an algorithm that safely and interactively learns a model of the user's reward function. We start with a generative model of initial states and a forward dynamics model trained on off-policy data. Our method uses these models to synthesize hypothetical behaviors, asks the user to label the behaviors with rewards, and trains a neural network to predict the rewards. The key idea is to actively synthesize the hypothetical behaviors from scratch by maximizing tractable proxies for the value of information, without interacting with the environment. We call this method reward query synthesis via trajectory optimization (ReQueST). We evaluate ReQueST with simulated users on a state-based 2D navigation task and the image-based Car Racing video game. The results show that ReQueST significantly outperforms prior methods in learning reward models that transfer to new environments with different initial state distributions. Moreover, ReQueST safely trains the reward model to detect unsafe states, and corrects reward hacking before deploying the agent.

Deep neural networks are known to achieve superior results i n classification tasks. However, it has been recently shown that they are incapable t o detect examples that are generated by a distribution which is different than the one they have been trained on since they are making overconfident prediction fo r Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) examples. OOD detection has attracted a lot of attenti on recently. In this paper, we review some of the most seminal recent algorit hms in the OOD detection field, we divide those methods into training and po st-training and we experimentally show how the combination of the former with t he latter can achieve state-of-the-art results in the OOD detection task. Since the seminal work of Krizhevsky et al. (2012), Deep Neur al Networks (DNNs) have demonstrated great success in several applications, e.g.

Deep metric learning employs deep neural networks to embed instances into a metric space such that distances between instances of the same class are small and distances between instances from different classes are large. In most existing deep metric learning techniques, the embedding of an instance is given by a feature vector produced by a deep neural network and Euclidean distance or cosine similarity defines distances between these vectors. In this paper, we study deep distributional embeddings of sequences, where the embedding of a sequence is given by the distribution of learned deep features across the sequence. This has the advantage of capturing statistical information about the distribution of patterns within the sequence in the embedding. When embeddings are distributions rather than vectors, measuring distances between embeddings involves comparing their respective distributions. We propose a distance metric based on Wasserstein distances between the distributions and a corresponding loss function for metric learning, which leads to a novel end-to-end trainable embedding model. We empirically observe that distributional embeddings outperform standard vector embeddings and that training with the proposed Wasserstein metric outperforms training with other distance functions.

Support Vector Data Description is a popular method for outlier detection. However, its usefulness largely depends on selecting good hyperparameter values -- a difficult problem that has received significant attention in literature. Existing methods to estimate hyperparameter values are purely heuristic, and the conditions under which they work well are unclear. In this article, we propose LAMA (Local Active Min-Max Alignment), the first principled approach to estimate SVDD hyperparameter values by active learning. The core idea bases on kernel alignment, which we adapt to active learning with small sample sizes. In contrast to many existing approaches, LAMA provides estimates for both SVDD hyperparameters. These estimates are evidence-based, i.e., rely on actual class labels, and come with a quality score. This eliminates the need for manual validation, an issue with current heuristics. LAMA outperforms state-of-the-art competitors in extensive experiments on real-world data. In several cases, LAMA even yields results close to the empirical upper bound.