Cybersecurity attacks are growing both in frequency and sophistication over the years. This increasing sophistication and complexity call for more advancement and continuous innovation in defensive strategies. Traditional methods of intrusion detection and deep packet inspection, while still largely used and recommended, are no longer sufficient to meet the demands of growing security threats. As computing power increases and cost drops, Machine Learning is seen as an alternative method or an additional mechanism to defend against malwares, botnets, and other attacks. This paper explores Machine Learning as a viable solution by examining its capabilities to classify malicious traffic in a network. First, a strong data analysis is performed resulting in 22 extracted features from the initial Netflow datasets. All these features are then compared with one another through a feature selection process. Then, our approach analyzes five different machine learning algorithms against NetFlow dataset containing common botnets. The Random Forest Classifier succeeds in detecting more than 95% of the botnets in 8 out of 13 scenarios and more than 55% in the most difficult datasets. Finally, insight is given to improve and generalize the results, especially through a bootstrapping technique.

After long arguments between positivism and falsificationism, the verification of universal hypotheses was replaced with the confirmation of uncertain major premises. Unfortunately, Hemple discovered the Raven Paradox (RP). Then, Carnap used the logical probability increment as the confirmation measure. So far, many confirmation measures have been proposed. Measure F among them proposed by Kemeny and Oppenheim possesses symmetries and asymmetries proposed by Elles and Fitelson, monotonicity proposed by Greco et al., and normalizing property suggested by many researchers. Based on the semantic information theory, a measure b* similar to F is derived from the medical test. Like the likelihood ratio, b* and F can only indicate the quality of channels or the testing means instead of the quality of probability predictions. And, it is still not easy to use b*, F, or another measure to clarify the RP. For this reason, measure c* similar to the correct rate is derived. The c* has the simple form: (a-c)/max(a, c); it supports the Nicod Criterion and undermines the Equivalence Condition, and hence, can be used to eliminate the RP. Some examples are provided to show why it is difficult to use one of popular confirmation measures to eliminate the RP. Measure F, b*, and c* indicate that fewer counterexamples' existence is more essential than more positive examples' existence, and hence, are compatible with Popper's falsification thought.

As shown in Example 11.20, we compile our dense sentiment classifier with a line of code that should already be familiar from recent chapters, except that--because we have a single output neuron within a binary classifier--we use binary_crossentropy cost in place of the categorical_crossentropy cost we used for our multiclass MNIST classifiers.

Since data collection and analysis are difficult, time consuming and costly, we are always looking for a way to optimum use of data to achieve the correct decision that can be referred to diagnose and experiment of diseases in healthcare organizations [3]. In addition, common method such as angiography [5,6] in experimenting and diagnosing diseases is costly and have adverse effects for patients as healthcare resear chers are trying to utilize methods that avoid the high cost as well as the adverse effects of previous methods, which can be performed by using computer - aided disease diagnose methods means machine learning. Whereas, da ta mining process by utilizing machine learning science and database management knowledge [1] has become a robust tool for data analysis and management of health industry data which ultimately leads to knowledge extraction. It should be noted that, with the progress of technology in t he healthcare especially, healthcare industry 4.0, human lifetime has become progressive and more comfortable [ 7 ] . In this new generation, with the development of new medical devices, equipment and tools, new knowledge can be gained in the field of disease diagnosis.

Big Data scenarios pose a new challenge to traditional data mining algorithms, since they are not prepared to work with such amount of data. Smart Data refers to data of enough quality to improve the outcome from a data mining algorithm. Existing data mining algorithms unability to handle Big Datasets prevents the transition from Big to Smart Data. Automation in data acquisition that characterizes Big Data also brings some problems, such as differences in data size per class. This will lead classifiers to lean towards the most represented classes. This problem is known as imbalanced data distribution, where one class is underrepresented in the dataset. Ensembles of classifiers are machine learning methods that improve the performance of a single base classifier by the combination of several of them. Ensembles are not exempt from the imbalanced classification problem. To deal with this issue, the ensemble method have to be designed specifically. In this paper, a data preprocessing ensemble for imbalanced Big Data classification is presented, with focus on two-class problems. Experiments carried out in 21 Big Datasets have proved that our ensemble classifier outperforms classic machine learning models with an added data balancing method, such as Random Forests.

Many real-world classification problems are significantly class-imbalanced to detriment of the class of interest. The standard set of proper evaluation metrics is well-known but the usual assumption is that the test dataset imbalance equals the real-world imbalance. In practice, this assumption is often broken for various reasons. The reported results are then often too optimistic and may lead to wrong conclusions about industrial impact and suitability of proposed techniques. We introduce methods focusing on evaluation under non-constant class imbalance. We show that not only the absolute values of commonly used metrics, but even the order of classifiers in relation to the evaluation metric used is affected by the change of the imbalance rate. Finally, we demonstrate that using subsampling in order to get a test dataset with class imbalance equal to the one observed in the wild is not necessary, and eventually can lead to significant errors in classifier's performance estimate.

Information extracted from electrohysterography recordings could potentially prove to be an interesting additional source of information to estimate the risk on preterm birth. Recently, a large number of studies have reported near-perfect results to distinguish between recordings of patients that will deliver term or preterm using a public resource, called the Term/Preterm Electrohysterogram database. However, we argue that these results are overly optimistic due to a methodological flaw being made. In this work, we focus on one specific type of methodological flaw: applying oversampling before partitioning the data into mutually exclusive training and testing sets. We show how this causes the results to be biased using two artificial datasets and reproduce results of studies in which this flaw was identified. Moreover, we evaluate the actual impact of oversampling on predictive performance, when applied prior to data partitioning, using the same methodologies of related studies, to provide a realistic view of these methodologies' generalization capabilities. We make our research reproducible by providing all the code under an open license. Keywords: preterm birth risk estimation · oversampling · electrohysterogra-phy 1 Introduction Giving birth before 37 weeks of pregnancy, which is referred to as preterm birth, has a significant negative impact on the expected outcome of the neonate. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), preterm birth is one of the arXiv:2001.06296v1

Single-site Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a variant of MCMC in which a single coordinate in the state space is modified in each step. Structured relational models are a good candidate for this style of inference. In the single-site context, second order methods become feasible because the typical cubic costs associated with these methods is now restricted to the dimension of each coordinate. Our work, which we call Newtonian Monte Carlo (NMC), is a method to improve MCMC convergence by analyzing the first and second order gradients of the target density to determine a suitable proposal density at each point. Existing first order gradient-based methods suffer from the problem of determining an appropriate step size. Too small a step size and it will take a large number of steps to converge, while a very large step size will cause it to overshoot the high density region. NMC is similar to the Newton-Raphson update in optimization where the second order gradient is used to automatically scale the step size in each dimension. However, our objective is to find a parameterized proposal density rather than the maxima. As a further improvement on existing first and second order methods, we show that random variables with constrained supports don't need to be transformed before taking a gradient step. We demonstrate the efficiency of NMC on a number of different domains. For statistical models where the prior is conjugate to the likelihood, our method recovers the posterior quite trivially in one step. However, we also show results on fairly large non-conjugate models, where NMC performs better than adaptive first order methods such as NUTS or other inexact scalable inference methods such as Stochastic Variational Inference or bootstrapping.

The effective application of neural networks in the real-world relies on proficiently detecting out-of-distribution examples. Contemporary methods seek to model the distribution of feature activations in the training data for adequately distinguishing abnormalities, and the state-of-the-art method uses Gaussian distribution models. In this work, we present a novel approach that improves upon the state-of-the-art by leveraging an expressive density model based on normalizing flows. We introduce the residual flow, a novel flow architecture that learns the residual distribution from a base Gaussian distribution. Our model is general, and can be applied to any data that is approximately Gaussian. For novelty detection in image datasets, our approach provides a principled improvement over the state-of-the-art. Specifically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in ResNet and DenseNet architectures trained on various image datasets. For example, on a ResNet trained on CIFAR-100 and evaluated on detection of out-of-distribution samples from the ImageNet dataset, holding the true positive rate (TPR) at $95\%$, we improve the true negative rate (TNR) from $56.7\%$ (current state-of-the-art) to $77.5\%$ (ours).

A classifier is only as good as the metric used to evaluate it. If you choose the wrong metric to evaluate your models, you are likely to choose a poor model, or in the worst case, be misled about the expected performance of your model. Choosing an appropriate metric is challenging generally in applied machine learning, but is particularly difficult for imbalanced classification problems. Firstly, because most of the standard metrics that are widely used assume a balanced class distribution, and because typically not all classes, and therefore, not all prediction errors, are equal for imbalanced classification. In this tutorial, you will discover metrics that you can use for imbalanced classification. Tour of Evaluation Metrics for Imbalanced Classification Photo by Travis Wise, some rights reserved.