Accuracy
Ease restrictions on U.S. blood donations
Unnecessary restrictions on blood donors should be removed to maximize the blood and plasma available for use. With a vaccine for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) likely more than a year away, we must identify effective therapies for patients now. One promising approach is the use of plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 (1, 2). To facilitate this strategy, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently revised some of the restrictions on blood donation, including a decrease in deferral time for men who have sex with men (MSM) to 3 months (3). This is a positive change to an outdated guideline, but it does not go far enough.
Mu-suppression detection in motor imagery electroencephalographic signals using the generalized extreme value distribution
Quintero-Rincón, Antonio, D'Giano, Carlos, Batatia, Hadj
Electroencephalograms (EEG) are a noninvasive longstanding medical modality that measures the brain's activity by recording the electromagnetic field at the scalp. Since its creation, EEG has played a fundamental role in understanding several major neurological disorders, by analyzing their manifestation into brain rhythms. For example, the study of deceases such as depression, age-related cognitive deterioration, epilepsy, anxiety disorders and subnormal brain development in children have benefited from this technology. The typical brain rhythms are distinguished by their different frequency ranges, called delta (δ) within the range 0.5 to 4Hz, theta (θ) within the range 4 to 7.5Hz, alpha (α) within the range 8 to 13Hz, beta (β) within the range 14 to 30Hz, and gamma (γ) within the range 30 to 64Hz. In this study, we focus on the brain rhythm called mu (µ) within the range 7.5 to 11.5Hz. Mu-waves are considered to emerge naturally and may convey information about what the functioning of brain hierarchies [1]. According to [2], there exist three historical theoretical hypotheses to explaining the mu-brain rhythm: i) the neuronal hyperexcitability related to the rolandic cortex; ii) the superficial cortical inhibition explaining its suppression with motor activity; and iii) the somatosensory cortical idling, related to the afference-dependent phenomenon.
Machine Learning Fund Categorizations
Mehta, Dhagash, Desai, Dhruv, Pradeep, Jithin
Given the surge in popularity of mutual funds (including exchange-traded funds (ETFs)) as a diversified financial investment, a vast variety of mutual funds from various investment management firms and diversification strategies have become available in the market. Identifying similar mutual funds among such a wide landscape of mutual funds has become more important than ever because of many applications ranging from sales and marketing to portfolio replication, portfolio diversification and tax loss harvesting. The current best method is data-vendor provided categorization which usually relies on curation by human experts with the help of available data. In this work, we establish that an industry wide well-regarded categorization system is learnable using machine learning and largely reproducible, and in turn constructing a truly data-driven categorization. We discuss the intellectual challenges in learning this man-made system, our results and their implications.
The Problem with Artificial Intelligence in Security
If you believed everything you read, artificial intelligence (AI) is the savior of cybersecurity. According to Capgemini, 80% of companies are counting on AI to help identify threats and thwart attacks. That's a big ask to live up to because, in reality, few nonexperts really understand the value of AI to security or whether the technology can effectively address information security's many potential use cases. A cynic would call out the proliferation of claims about using AI for what it is -- marketing hype. Even the use of the term "AI" is misleading.
Learning LWF Chain Graphs: an Order Independent Algorithm
Javidian, Mohammad Ali, Valtorta, Marco, Jamshidi, Pooyan
LWF chain graphs combine directed acyclic graphs and undirected graphs. We present a PC-like algorithm that finds the structure of chain graphs under the faithfulness assumption to resolve the problem of scalability of the proposed algorithm by Studeny (1997). We prove that our PC-like algorithm is order dependent, in the sense that the output can depend on the order in which the variables are given. This order dependence can be very pronounced in high-dimensional settings. We propose two modifications of the PC-like algorithm that remove part or all of this order dependence. Simulation results under a variety of settings demonstrate the competitive performance of the PC-like algorithms in comparison with the decomposition-based method, called LCD algorithm, proposed by Ma et al. (2008) in low-dimensional settings and improved performance in high-dimensional settings.
Review of Mathematical frameworks for Fairness in Machine Learning
del Barrio, Eustasio, Gordaliza, Paula, Loubes, Jean-Michel
With both the introduction of new ways of storing, sharing and streaming data and the drastic development of the capacity of computers to handle large computations, the conception of models have changed. Mathematical models were first designed following prior ideas or conjectures from physical or biological models, then tested by designing experiments to test the validity of the ideas of their inventors. The model holds until new observations enable to reject its assumptions. The so-called Big Data's area introduced a new paradigm. The observed data convey enough information to understand the complexity of real life and the more the data, the better the description of the reality. Hence building models optimised to fit the data has become an efficient way to obtain generalizable models able to describe and forecast the real world. In this framework, the principle of supervised machine learning is to build a decision rule from a set of labeled examples called the learning sample, that fits the data.
auditor: an R Package for Model-Agnostic Visual Validation and Diagnostics
Gosiewska, Alicja, Biecek, Przemyslaw
Machine learning models have spread to almost every area of life. They are successfully applied in biology, medicine, finance, physics, and other fields. With modern software it is easy to train even a~complex model that fits the training data and results in high accuracy on the test set. The problem arises when models fail confronted with real-world data. This paper describes methodology and tools for model-agnostic audit. Introduced techniques facilitate assessing and comparing the goodness of fit and performance of models. In~addition, they may be used for the analysis of the similarity of residuals and for identification of~outliers and influential observations. The examination is carried out by diagnostic scores and visual verification. Presented methods were implemented in the auditor package for R. Due to flexible and~consistent grammar, it is simple to validate models of any classes.
Degree-Aware Alignment for Entities in Tail
Zeng, Weixin, Zhao, Xiang, Wang, Wei, Tang, Jiuyang, Tan, Zhen
Entity alignment (EA) is to discover equivalent entities in knowledge graphs (KGs), which bridges heterogeneous sources of information and facilitates the integration of knowledge. Existing EA solutions mainly rely on structural information to align entities, typically through KG embedding. Nonetheless, in real-life KGs, only a few entities are densely connected to others, and the rest majority possess rather sparse neighborhood structure. We refer to the latter as long-tail entities, and observe that such phenomenon arguably limits the use of structural information for EA. To mitigate the issue, we revisit and investigate into the conventional EA pipeline in pursuit of elegant performance. For pre-alignment, we propose to amplify long-tail entities, which are of relatively weak structural information, with entity name information that is generally available (but overlooked) in the form of concatenated power mean word embeddings. For alignment, under a novel complementary framework of consolidating structural and name signals, we identify entity's degree as important guidance to effectively fuse two different sources of information. To this end, a degree-aware co-attention network is conceived, which dynamically adjusts the significance of features in a degree-aware manner. For post-alignment, we propose to complement original KGs with facts from their counterparts by using confident EA results as anchors via iterative training. Comprehensive experimental evaluations validate the superiority of our proposed techniques.
Policy Entropy for Out-of-Distribution Classification
Sedlmeier, Andreas, Müller, Robert, Illium, Steffen, Linnhoff-Popien, Claudia
One critical prerequisite for the deployment of reinforcement learning systems in the real world is the ability to reliably detect situations on which the agent was not trained. Such situations could lead to potential safety risks when wrong predictions lead to the execution of harmful actions. In this work, we propose PEOC, a new policy entropy based out-of-distribution classifier that reliably detects unencountered states in deep reinforcement learning. It is based on using the entropy of an agent's policy as the classification score of a one-class classifier. We evaluate our approach using a procedural environment generator. Results show that PEOC is highly competitive against state-of-the-art one-class classification algorithms on the evaluated environments. Furthermore, we present a structured process for benchmarking out-of-distribution classification in reinforcement learning.
qDKT: Question-centric Deep Knowledge Tracing
Sonkar, Shashank, Waters, Andrew E., Lan, Andrew S., Grimaldi, Phillip J., Baraniuk, Richard G.
Knowledge tracing (KT) models, e.g., the deep knowledge tracing (DKT) model, track an individual learner's acquisition of skills over time by examining the learner's performance on questions related to those skills. A practical limitation in most existing KT models is that all questions nested under a particular skill are treated as equivalent observations of a learner's ability, which is an inaccurate assumption in real-world educational scenarios. To overcome this limitation we introduce qDKT, a variant of DKT that models every learner's success probability on individual questions over time. First, qDKT incorporates graph Laplacian regularization to smooth predictions under each skill, which is particularly useful when the number of questions in the dataset is big. Second, qDKT uses an initialization scheme inspired by the fastText algorithm, which has found success in a variety of language modeling tasks. Our experiments on several real-world datasets show that qDKT achieves state-of-art performance on predicting learner outcomes. Because of this, qDKT can serve as a simple, yet tough-to-beat, baseline for new question-centric KT models.