We study the identification of direct and indirect causes on time series and provide conditions in the presence of latent variables, which we prove to be necessary and sufficient under some graph constraints. Our theoretical results and estimation algorithms require two conditional independence tests for each observed candidate time series to determine whether or not it is a cause of an observed target time series. We provide experimental results in simulations, as well as real data. Our results show that our method leads to very low false positives and relatively low false negative rates, outperforming the widely used Granger causality.

Constructing accurate model-agnostic explanations for opaque machine learning models remains a challenging task. Classification models for high-dimensional data, like images, are often inherently complex. To reduce this complexity, individual predictions may be explained locally, either in terms of a simpler local surrogate model or by communicating how the predictions contrast with those of another class. However, existing approaches still fall short in the following ways: a) they measure locality using a (Euclidean) metric that is not meaningful for non-linear high-dimensional data; or b) they do not attempt to explain the decision boundary, which is the most relevant characteristic of classifiers that are optimized for classification accuracy; or c) they do not give the user any freedom in specifying attributes that are meaningful to them. We address these issues in a new procedure for local decision boundary approximation (DBA). To construct a meaningful metric, we train a variational autoencoder to learn a Euclidean latent space of encoded data representations. We impose interpretability by exploiting attribute annotations to map the latent space to attributes that are meaningful to the user. A difficulty in evaluating explainability approaches is the lack of a ground truth. We address this by introducing a new benchmark data set with artificially generated Iris images, and showing that we can recover the latent attributes that locally determine the class. We further evaluate our approach on tabular data and on the CelebA image data set.

We introduce the probabilistic auto-encoder (PAE), a generative model with a lower dimensional latent space that is based on an auto-encoder which is interpreted probabilistically after training using a normalizing flow. The PAE is fast and easy to train, achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality and good performance in downstream tasks. Compared to a VAE and its common variants, the PAE trains faster, reaches a lower reconstruction error and produces state of the art sample quality without requiring special tuning parameters or training procedures. We further demonstrate that the PAE is a powerful model for performing the downstream tasks of outlier detection and probabilistic image reconstruction: 1) We identify a PAE-based outlier detection metric which achieves state of the art results and outperforms other likelihood based estimators. 2) We perform high dimensional data inpainting and denoising with uncertainty quantification by means of posterior analysis in the PAE latent space. Most generative models are specifically tuned to excel in one or two applications. With the PAE we introduce an easy-to-train, simple, but at the same time powerful model that performs well and reliably in many tasks without requiring special fine-tuning or training procedures. We make all PAE codes publicly available.

The early detection of anomalous events in time series data is essential in many domains of application. In this paper we deal with critical health events, which represent a significant cause of mortality in intensive care units of hospitals. The timely prediction of these events is crucial for mitigating their consequences and improving healthcare. One of the most common approaches to tackle early anomaly detection problems is standard classification methods. In this paper we propose a novel method that uses a layered learning architecture to address these tasks. One key contribution of our work is the idea of pre-conditional events, which denote arbitrary but computable relaxed versions of the event of interest. We leverage this idea to break the original problem into two hierarchical layers, which we hypothesize are easier to solve. The results suggest that the proposed approach leads to a better performance relative to state of the art approaches for critical health episode prediction.

The task of learning a causal model from observational data, or a combination of observational and interventional data, is commonly referred to as a causal discovery or causal structure learning [1]. Causal discovery from two variables based on observational data in the absence of time series or controlled interventions is a challenging problem and necessitates additional assumptions [2]. This is a ubiquitous problem in almost all domains of science, but particularly so in econometrics, meteorology, biology and medicine where interventional approaches are difficult or in several cases not feasible. Model-free data-driven approaches for causal discovery have developed significantly over the past decade or so in an attempt to address the problem of causal discovery such as Granger Causality (GC) [3], Transfer Entropy (TE) [4] and Compression-Complexity Causality (CCC) [5]. These methods have been used in various disciplines across neuroscience, climatology, econometrics, etc and rely on properties of time-series data. Both GC and TE have assumptions that need to be met for satisfactory inference, while CCC is assumption-free and robust to many artefacts and nuisance variables. All three need careful parameter calibration and selection for optimally accurate performance. A class of model-free causal discovery methods do not assume a temporal structure in the data and are rooted in algorithmic information theory, chiefly based on the notion of Kolmogorov complexity. The Kolmogorov complexity of a finite binary string is the length of the shortest binary program that generates that string and reflects the computational resources needed to specify it.

The recent progress on automatically searching augmentation policies has boosted the performance substantially for various tasks. A key component of automatic augmentation search is the evaluation process for a particular augmentation policy, which is utilized to return reward and usually runs thousands of times. A plain evaluation process, which includes full model training and validation, would be time-consuming. To achieve efficiency, many choose to sacrifice evaluation reliability for speed. In this paper, we dive into the dynamics of augmented training of the model. This inspires us to design a powerful and efficient proxy task based on the Augmentation-Wise Weight Sharing (AWS) to form a fast yet accurate evaluation process in an elegant way. Comprehensive analysis verifies the superiority of this approach in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. The augmentation policies found by our method achieve superior accuracies compared with existing auto-augmentation search methods. On CIFAR-10, we achieve a top-1 error rate of 1.24%, which is currently the best performing single model without extra training data. On ImageNet, we get a top-1 error rate of 20.36% for ResNet-50, which leads to 3.34% absolute error rate reduction over the baseline augmentation.

In this work, we present the Chatbot Interaction with Artificial Intelligence (CI-AI) framework as an approach to the training of deep learning chatbots for task classification. The intelligent system augments human-sourced data via artificial paraphrasing in order to generate a large set of training data for further classical, attention, and language transformation-based learning approaches for Natural Language Processing. Human beings are asked to paraphrase commands and questions for task identification for further execution of a machine. The commands and questions are split into training and validation sets. A total of 483 responses were recorded. Secondly, the training set is paraphrased by the T5 model in order to augment it with further data. Seven state-of-the-art transformer-based text classification algorithms (BERT, DistilBERT, RoBERTa, DistilRoBERTa, XLM, XLM-RoBERTa, and XLNet) are benchmarked for both sets after fine-tuning on the training data for two epochs. We find that all models are improved when training data is augmented by the T5 model, with an average increase of classification accuracy by 4.01%. The best result was the RoBERTa model trained on T5 augmented data which achieved 98.96% classification accuracy. Finally, we found that an ensemble of the five best-performing transformer models via Logistic Regression of output label predictions led to an accuracy of 99.59% on the dataset of human responses. A highly-performing model allows the intelligent system to interpret human commands at the social-interaction level through a chatbot-like interface (e.g. "Robot, can we have a conversation?") and allows for better accessibility to AI by non-technical users.

Considerable research effort has been guided towards algorithmic fairness but there is still no major breakthrough. In practice, an exhaustive search over all possible techniques and hyperparameters is needed to find optimal fairness-accuracy trade-offs. Hence, coupled with the lack of tools for ML practitioners, real-world adoption of bias reduction methods is still scarce. To address this, we present Fairband, a bandit-based fairness-aware hyperparameter optimization (HO) algorithm. Fairband is conceptually simple, resource-efficient, easy to implement, and agnostic to both the objective metrics, model types and the hyperparameter space being explored. Moreover, by introducing fairness notions into HO, we enable seamless and efficient integration of fairness objectives into real-world ML pipelines. We compare Fairband with popular HO methods on four real-world decision-making datasets. We show that Fairband can efficiently navigate the fairness-accuracy trade-off through hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, without extra training cost, it consistently finds configurations attaining substantially improved fairness at a comparatively small decrease in predictive accuracy.

Aidoc announced today that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has given regulatory clearance for the commercial use of its triaging and notification algorithms for flagging and communicating incidental pulmonary embolism . Flagging incidental, critical findings is a huge technical challenge due to the varied imaging protocols used and lower incidences of such cases. The ability to prioritize incidental critical conditions accurately is a breakthrough in the value AI can bring to the radiologist workflow. "The most common use case we experienced is for critical unsuspected findings in oncology surveillance patients" said Dr. Cindy Kallman, Chief, Section of CT at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. "The ability to call the referring physician while the patient is still in the house is huge. We are essentially offering a point-of-care diagnosis of PE for our outpatients. Our referring physicians have been completely wowed by this."

Baskerville is a machine operating on the Deflect network that protects sites from hounding, malicious bots. It's also an open source project that, in time, will be able to reduce bad behaviour on your networks too. Baskerville responds to web traffic, analyzing requests in real-time, and challenging those acting suspiciously. A few months ago, Baskerville passed an important milestone – making its own decisions on traffic deemed anomalous. The quality of these decisions (recall) is high and Baskerville has already successfully mitigated many sophisticated real-life attacks.